There will be two questions when California voters go to the polls later this year for the recall election: Should Gov. Gavin Newsom be booted from office? And if a majority of voters say yes, who should replace him?
But there’s another big question looming before then: When exactly is the election?
While the answer is still up in the air, it’s starting to look like the recall may happen as early as August, months earlier than originally expected.
That’s partly because the party in control has a lot to say about when to schedule a recall election — unlike the set-in-stone first Tuesday in November dates for general elections. And with the coronavirus crisis fading and the state reopening, Democrats have every reason to push for an earlier election, when many voters will be enjoying their first relatively normal summer in more than a year.
Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, a Newsom ally, is the one who ultimately gets to set the election date after a series of other steps — a boon for the governor.
“With the exception of COVID recovery, his single greatest asset is that the timing is completely controlled by his allies,” said longtime political strategist and observer Dan Schnur.
Residents who signed the recall petition have until June 8 to change their minds and request that their names be removed. Proponents turned in more than 2.1 million signatures, well above the roughly 1.5 million needed to trigger a recall, so it would be highly unusual if it didn’t meet that threshold. Assuming it does, the Department of Finance has 30 business days to estimate the cost of the election. The Joint Legislative Budget Committee then has another 30 days to review the cost before Kounalakis sets the election date.
But there’s nothing that says the government needs to take all the time allotted, and some Democratic lawmakers have indicated they may be able to move faster.
State Sen. Nancy Skinner, an East Bay Democrat who chairs the joint budget committee, said during a recent news conference that the 30 days her committee has to review the cost “may not be necessary.”
That’s partly because most county election officials have already indicated how much they expect the election to cost, and, Skinner said, “we’ve already been reviewing that.”
Earlier this spring, the California Association of Clerks and Elected Officials said it expects the cost to be about $400 million.
So let’s say the Department of Finance and the Legislature spend two weeks on their budget review rather than two months. The law then directs Kounalakis to set an election between 60 and 80 days from the conclusion of those reviews.
The upshot is Californians may be headed to the polls (and mailing in ballots) in late summer.
Schnur thinks that will only help Newsom since the fall brings with it the possibility of disastrous wildfires, more time for mishaps like the now infamous French Laundry dinner, and it gives opponents more time to build their case. An earlier election would also limit the ability of a renegade Democrat jumping into the race to challenge Newsom. The governor, Schnur pointed out, will be signing a flurry of bills into law soon, and each one is sure to upset someone.
“By pushing forward more quickly, they can minimize those risks for him,” Schnur said. “If he loses, it’s going to be because of some extraordinary event. With fewer days between now and a vote, the less chance there is of something extraordinary happening.”
Newsom is ahead in the polls, with 36% of voters supporting the recall and 49% opposing the effort, according to the most recent poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.
“I think Gov. Newsom is in a strong position to beat the recall,” state Sen. Steve Glazer, a Democrat who represents the East Bay, said during a phone interview. “And the sooner it gets done, the better he can turn his focus toward other state issues.”
But Newsom’s critics say August sounds fine to them.
The pro-recall campaign is “not at all” worried about a sped-up timeline, said Anne Dunsmore, campaign manager for Rescue California, one of the leading pro-recall groups. “I think picking a date late summer acknowledges he’s in trouble.”
Like Schnur, Dunsmore pointed out that Newsom could see more opposition amid bill signing, and an August election could see low voter turnout with people on vacation and occupied with summer activities, which she thinks would hit the governor especially hard.
“We’ve been ready for a very long time,” she said, pointing to Newsom’s handling of homelessness and the pending drought as issues where recall backers can pick up support for their cause.
Terry Christensen, a political science professor emeritus at San Jose State University and the co-author of a book on the 2003 Gray Davis recall, said that while it’s true Republicans, who make up the bulk of recall supporters, have traditionally been more likely to turn out to vote, that’s changing.
“Republican advantage in turnout has decreased with more extensive and easy voting by mail,” Christensen said, adding that an earlier election “would be very much to Gavin Newsom’s advantage.”
Newsom himself has brushed aside questions about the timing of the recall, saying only that he’ll work to defeat the effort and devote his time to issues like getting the coronavirus vaccine to more residents and rebuilding the economy.
“As it relates to determinations about calendars,” the governor said during a recent news conference, “I’ll leave that to others.”