Political editor, BBC Wales News
In her speech, which marks a year until polling day, Morgan will bill next year’s Senedd election as a “battle for the future of Wales”.
She will admit that polls are tight and that with “the rise of Reform and the risks of a divided left vote, the future of Wales is at stake”.
It is not known exactly what language the first minister will use to “call out” the cuts, but in her speech she will promise to “get more out of the relationship with the UK government” and to “challenge from within”.
Morgan is also expected to introduce a new phrase – “the red Welsh way” – to set herself apart from her Labour colleagues at Westminster.
The term echoes “clear red water”, coined by former First Minister Rhodri Morgan in the early 2000s to highlight differences between Welsh Labour and former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s UK Labour.
This move follows criticism from opposition parties, who accuse her of failing to stand up to Westminster and secure key demands like rail funding and devolution of policing and justice.
Morgan will say that “when UK Labour does not deliver for Wales… when we disagree we will say it”.
“Where we see unfairness, we will stand up to it.
“When Westminster makes decisions that we think will harm Welsh communities, we will not stay silent.”
She is also expected to compare the relationship between the UK government and Welsh government to Gavin and Stacey – where it is the same family, but what works in England, may not necessarily suit Wales
Morgan is expected to argue that Welsh Labour is in a “unique” position to deliver for Wales due to shared priorities with UK Labour, including increased NHS funding.
She will likely renew calls for more rail investment and control of the Crown Estate, which is key to developing offshore wind farm projects around Wales.
Highlighting past exploitation of Welsh resources, she will say: “We saw them take our coal. We saw them take our water. We will not let them take our wind. Not on my watch.”
However, it is not clear how she would achieve that.
Morgan is also expected to say that the £25m the UK government pledged to help make coal tips safe is welcomed, but is nowhere near enough.
Plaid Cymru said any political reset would be “too little too late” and question if it would be credible given that Labour has used the phrase “partnership in power” to describe the relationship between the two governments.
The Welsh Conservatives describe the speech as a “last ditch attempt to rescue the situation”.
Reform said they have Labour in their sights after last week’s local elections in England.
