Israel-Iran war crashes on to agenda at Canada’s G7 summit

Good morning. Iran launched a new missile barrage on Israel’s cities early today as the Middle East conflict entered a fourth day​. Earlier, Israel​’s military said its air force ​had ​struck missile sites in central Iran​. Meanwhile European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said last night that “Iran is the principal source of regional instability” as G7 leaders gathered in Canada.

Today, I preview the G7 summit where the spiralling conflict is set to dominate the leaders’ talks, and our energy correspondent reports on talks today about the nitty gritty of plans to end the EU’s last vestiges of Russian energy imports.

Powder keg

A G7 summit that was already jam-packed with contentious global fractures got significantly more tumultuous with the spiralling conflict between Israel and Iran, with fears of a full-blown war in the Middle East set to dominate the Canadian gathering.

Context: Leaders of the G7 countries — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, US plus the EU — are meeting today and tomorrow in Kananaskis in the Canadian Rockies. The group of advanced economies was set up to co-ordinate policies on key issues such as trade and security.

Before Israel’s strikes on Iran began last week, the summit’s preparations were focused on efforts by the European members to avoid a conflagration with US President Donald Trump, convince him to maintain support for Ukraine, and find a solution to his threats of major tariffs against EU goods.

But the Middle East has exploded on to the agenda, and will overshadow much of the formal and bilateral discussions. EU leaders have called for de-escalation amid fears of wider regional instability, even as Trump issues bellicose threats against Tehran.

Iran has threatened to attack American, British and French military assets in the Middle East if their forces are used to help defend Israel from Iranian counter-attacks. The UK moved additional fighter jets to the region over the weekend.

There are also concerns about the impact on global energy markets, and the threat posed to trade to and from Europe if Iran or its allies seek to disrupt the vital Gulf shipping lanes.

In a call with Trump on Saturday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said they had “discussed the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East as well as the need for close co-ordination on the impact on energy markets”.

Today in Brussels, ambassadors will prepare for an emergency video conference meeting of EU foreign ministers scheduled for tomorrow to discuss the Middle East crisis and potential responses.

G7 host Mark Carney, Canada’s recently-elected prime minister, had hoped to use the gathering to present a united western front on shared issues such as economic security, emerging technologies and migration, and has dropped the traditional joint communiqué in a deft move aimed at avoiding likely disagreements with Trump on issues such as climate change.

But events in the Middle East are set to continually distract the leaders, and lay bare the fractious geopolitical theatre that they are grappling with.

Chart du jour: To the core

While the EU is making moves to stop buying Russian fossil fuels, it has delayed plans to gradually cut itself from a smaller but far more tricky reliance: Russian nuclear technology.

Small print

EU energy ministers will discuss how to wean the bloc off the last vestiges of Russian fossil fuels today, as Brussels seeks to sever the last energy ties with its former supplier, writes Alice Hancock.

Context: The EU has sanctioned most Russian oil and coal imports, and in May published a rough plan to fully cut Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Rather than using sanctions, Brussels wants to ban the contracts with Russia via trade measures, which can be passed by a weighted majority and prevent a likely veto from Slovakia and Hungary.

But the commission stopped short of setting out the details, and EU governments and the gas industry are concerned whether the legal basis will be strong enough to call off the contracts due to force majeure.

A full proposal is expected tomorrow, after energy ministers discuss the plan in Luxembourg today.

Hungary and Slovakia have already said in a statement that the Russian fuel phaseout plan runs contrary to energy security objectives and “raises both legal and political concerns”. Any decision on the matter should be unanimous, they said.

But a senior EU diplomat struck an optimistic tone. There had already been some “informal discussions” about the plan. Once the legislative proposal “was on the table with the nitty gritty legal basis” there would be “the usual debates and arguments among member states”.

“But if you ask me,” they said, “the necessary support for this will be there”.

What to watch today

1. G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada.

2. EU energy ministers meet in Luxembourg.

3. European parliament plenary session kicks off in Strasbourg.

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