Sky Racing’s David Gately and Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters preview the last four races of the Melbourne Cup meeting at Flemington.
Popular form analyst David Gately and the Herald Sun’s Brad Waters have a look at the last four races of Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup meeting at Flemington.
RACE 7: MELBOURNE CUP (3200m)
GATOR: Going with the boom horse INCENTIVISE (2). Nothing about him suggests 3200m will pull him up, he has been beyond 2000m four times and his aggregate winning margin is over 32 lengths. FLOATING ARTIST (22) is perhaps the value/ danger. SPANISH MISSION (3) brings in elite, world-class form-lines and can win. DELPHI (7) looks best roughie. VERRY ELLEEGANT (4), TWILIGHT PAYMENT (1) and SIR LUCAN (24) all hopes.
BRAD: I agree with you. INCENTIVISE (2) will be awfully hard to beat even though he rises 1.5kg on his Caulfield Cup-winning weight. The scary thing for his rivals is that he’s still on the up. I’m thinking nothing out of the Caulfield Cup can beat him in the Melbourne Cup. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (1), GRAND PROMENADE (16). TRALEE ROSE (21) and SPANISH MISSION (3) are the other chances.
RACE 8: HONG KONG JOCKEY CLUB STAKES (1400m)
BRAD: Happy to have something each-way on the consistent AIDENSFIELD (5) after her solid effort behind Colette in the Tristarc Stakes. She’s due a win. I liked the first-up run of BELLE PLAISIR (3) at Geelong and she can measure up. PROMISE OF SUCCESS (11) is on the up in Sydney.
GATOR: PROMISE OF SUCCESS (11) produced a huge finale to win to score at Randwick and can go on. RICH HIPS (2) won this last year and is having a luckless preparation, she looks a value danger. LA MEXICANA (1) is very genuine and APRIL RAIN ran into a handy one last start.
RACE 9: TAB TROPHY (1800m)
GATOR: MARACANA (14) was still very new at MV and back and wide yet still rushed home. 1800m helps on a big track. ZOUMON (4) led and was a strong winner latest beating SAMARKAND (8) who then ran well in the Moonee Valley Vase. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (7) is very promising, back in trip slight query but can certainly win. VILLADEN (7) next best.
BRAD: I’ve taken a somewhat different view on this Gator. I’m prepared to throw a Hail Mary at ALL SO CLEAR (12) at $41 here. He was just beaten by SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (6) two runs back then should just about have won off a slow pace at Caulfield last time. He’s an improver and over the odds with blinkers on for this. ZOUMON (4) was too tough at Moe and is back to his own age. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD and MARACANA (14) are also chances.
RACE 10: MSS SECURITY SPRINT (1200m)
BRAD: I’m happy to back EXPRESS PASS (5) back at Listed level after his last two runs in harder races. Easily defeated Bella Nipotina at his last Listed class run and she has won a Group 3 since and just went down in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes. NIGHT RAID (13) could be the blowout at $21 after a good effort at Geelong. CURRAN (10) and RANTING (12) are also significant hopes.
GATOR: RANTING (12) is a good hope here at massive odds. Run off his feet at 1000m fresh and he copped a check at a key stage but ran a very strong last 600m. He’s up to 1200m and drawn to swoop. PANDEMIC (6) will be charging home with him out wide. CURRAN (10) is a good horse, 1200m helps now. QUANTICO (14) would be the top pick but for gate one. Put him in the quaddie though.
QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS
LEG 1: RACE 7
The Melbourne Cup starts Tuesday’s Flemington quaddie. Thinking the betting market probably has it right with the chances in this year’s great race. Sticking with the top five in the Melbourne Cup market with INCENTIVISE (2) the top pick with TWILIGHT PAYMENT (1), SPANISH MISSION (3), GRAND PROMENADE (16) and TRALEE ROSE (21) all going into the quaddie as well. I’d be shocked (and out of the quaddie) if anything else won the Melbourne Cup.
1ST LEG – 1, 2, 3, 16, 21
LEG 2: RACE 8
The second leg isn’t any easier than the Melbourne Cup but going with AIDENSFIELD (5) as the top pick after her solid effort behind Empire Rose Stakes winner Colette at Caulfield last time out. BELLE PLAISIR (3) ran on well at Geelong first-up and will only be improved for that outing while PROMISE OF SUCCESS (11) is a chance to handle the step up to stakes class after good form in Sydney. RICH HIPS (2) is going for back-to-back wins in this race and is worth including.
2ND LEG – 2, 3, 5, 11
LEG 3: RACE 9
The third leg is the toughest of the Melbourne Cup Day quaddie but going in with four picks and a few possible regrets if one of the runners left out greets the judge. ZOUMON (4) races on the pace and beat older horses in the wet at Moe last time out. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (6) drops in class after an excellent effort in the Moonee Valley Vase. ALL SO CLEAR (12) was unlucky at Caulfield and could add a bit of value to the quaddie if he can get up while MARACANA (14) is showing plenty of ability and trainer Danny O’Brien likes to target this race with smart prospects.
3RD LEG – 4, 6, 12, 14
LEG 4: RACE 10
A competitive straight race to bring home the Melbourne Cup Day quaddie but have to put in EXPRESS PASS (5) after his honest efforts in harder races at his last two runs. CURRAN (10) is as consistent as they come and has gone well at both runs down the straight while a class drop helps him. NIGHT RAID (13) is down in weight after a good effort at Geelong last time and will be fitter. RANTING (12) is a smart four-year-old that will find the 1200m much more suitable than the 1000m of his first-up run.
4TH LEG – 5, 10, 12, 13
$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent
Not an easy quaddie to trim down on Melbourne Cup Day but starting off with TWILIGHT PAYMENT (1), INCENTIVISE (2) and SPANISH MISSION (3) in the big race. Can’t get the second leg any skinnier than three picks with BELLE PLAISIR (3), AIDENSFIELD (5) and PROMISE OF SUCCESS (11) going in. Three picks are as tight as we can get in the third leg with SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (6), ALL SO CLEAR (12) and MARACANA (14) going in. Going for glory and taking EXPRESS PASS (5) one-out in the last leg.
1ST LEG: 1, 2, 3
2ND LEG: 3, 5, 11
3RD LEG: 6, 12, 14
4TH LEG: 5
COST $100 FOR 370%
Originally published as David Gately and Brad Waters look at the quaddie races on Melbourne Cup Day