Despite failed revolt against Netanyahu, Ben Gvir seen as unlikely to get the boot

On Tuesday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a scathing attack on Itamar Ben Gvir, after the national security minister and all but one of the MKs from his Otzma Yehudit party voted against an important budget-related bill in the Knesset.

To make sure the legislation passed and quash the internal revolt led by Ben Gvir and ultra-Orthodox MKs, the prime minister had been forced to leave his hospital bed, against medical advice, two days after undergoing prostate surgery.

“There is no greater irresponsible folly than to shake up the coalition at this time or risk toppling a right-wing government,” Netanyahu declared after the bill passed by a single vote.

Ben Gvir has been voting against the coalition to exert pressure over his demand for a larger budget for the police force, which he oversees as national security minister. Haredi lawmakers from the Agudat Yisrael faction of the United Torah Judaism party have engaged in a similar effort over frustration with the coalition’s refusal to pass legislation anchoring in law blanket exemptions from mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox.

The Otzma Yehudt leader, a far-right firebrand, was unapologetic following the vote, telling national broadcaster Kan on Wednesday that he would not resign after his failed flex.

But the bid has nonetheless put him in the crosshairs of his coalition colleagues, several of whom have spoken out publicly, with some even calling for Netanyahu to fire him from his cabinet position as head of the police.

Calling Ben Gvir an “arrogant provocateur,” Religious Zionism MK Ohad Tal declared that it was “time to say goodbye” to him, while Education Minister Yoav Kisch told Army Radio that if he “continues to vote against the government, then it will not be able to continue. What that means is not being in the coalition.”

In a letter to Netanyahu on Wednesday, freshman Likud lawmaker Dan Illouz complained about the uneven enforcement of coalition discipline. While he, a backbencher, was removed from the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee over his opposition to a coalition-backed bill, Ben Gvir appears to have gotten away with repeated violations of coalition discipline, he said.

Ben Gvir’s “conduct reveals that this is not a struggle for values, but childish conduct aimed at trampling the Likud party and the dignity of the prime minister,” Illouz wrote, demanding “that severe and significant sanctions be applied to any Knesset member who violated coalition discipline yesterday.”

Before Tuesday’s plenum session, Ben Gvir — who has a history of threatening his coalition partners and boycotting votes to advance his political and policy goals — also voted against the coalition’s state budget proposal on two other occasions.

“A situation in which only Likud members pay a price for taking positions based on values, while our partners violate the rules of coalition discipline without consequences, effectively makes us the weakest party in the coalition,” Illouz added in the letter, which was seen by the Times of Israel.

Although government regulations allow a premier to fire ministers who vote against coalition bills, Netanyahu is seen as unlikely to sack Ben Gvir, who he brought into the coalition despite heavy criticism over the Otzma Yehudit leader’s extreme views and past associations with Meir Kahana.

Netanyahu’s 68 MK-strong coalition holds 16 seats more than the opposition in the 120-member Knesset, but firing Ben Gvir would likely lead to Otzma Yehudit bolting the government, leaving it with a much narrower majority, one coalition insider told The Times of Israel.

It is unclear, though, if all six Otzma Yehudit lawmakers would follow Ben Gvir into the opposition. MK Almog Cohen, who broke party discipline to vote for Wednesday’s bill, is viewed as potentially sticking with Netanyahu.

The source noted that the departure of Otzma Yehudit from the cabinet would create “a domino effect” that would push party lawmaker Yitzhak Kroizer out of the Knesset and off of the Judicial Selection Committee, where he is key loyalist to Justice Minister Yariv Levin.

Kroizer is one of the Knesset’s representatives on the committee that selects judges, whose composition was a central part of the government’s judicial overhaul agenda, which Levin is currently seeking to revive.

Kroizer became an MK in early 2023 under the so-called Norwegian Law, which allows ministers and deputy ministers from large factions to resign, with their Knesset seats filled by members of their parties. If or when these ministers resign, they regain their old seats.

Since members of the committee representing the Knesset are elected in a secret ballot by parliamentary majority, it would be difficult in the event of Otzma Yehudit’s exit from the coalition to ensure another supporter of the judicial overhaul would replace Kroizer, the source noted.

As Levin does not currently have a majority on the committee, losing Kroizer would be a further blow to his power to influence events and it is “easiest not to rock the boat,” the source said.

Netanyahu may still take steps against Ben Gvir. According to the Israel Hayom daily, Netanyahu is currently mulling excluding Ben Gvir from attending limited ministerial forums focused on security issues. Associates of the prime minister who spoke with Channel 12 news said that Netanyahu will treat Ben Gvir as a political opponent who will eventually leave the coalition.

“We don’t need to terminate him in my view,” MK Tally Gotliv told The Times of Israel on Wednesday.

“He’s a good minister who is concerned for the National Security Ministry and for the police. Indeed, there was an unfortunate incident yesterday, but that’s not a reason to fire him,” she added. “A minor sanction can be imposed and the government should be maintained despite the difficulties that arise from time to time.”

Others also think keeping the band together trumps enforcing discipline on a wayward lawmaker, even one who openly revolted against Netanyahu, especially with US President-elect Donald Trump set to re-enter office in mere weeks.

The coalition “has no right to spoil the big opportunities that we have now after January 20,” MK Amit Halevi told the Times of Israel in a written message. “Even if there are disagreements we should all be focused on one thing, victory. Maybe there will be a small price here or there but in general we should not shake this coalition.”