On December 28, Myanmar will hold its first set of elections since a military coup in 2021. Despite the United States claiming the country is now safe for citizens to return, a civil war, which has displaced millions, rages on. International observers, troubled by the scale of fighting and numerous disputed territories, have criticized the proposed ballot as “a desperate bid” for international legitimacy and insisted that a period of inclusive political dialogue must precede any act of democratic engagement.
The ballot promises two results: the first is that the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will prevail. The second is that the opposition National Unity Government, which represents the resistance to military rule, will fade further into the background.
But the question is, why now?
The answer involves the need for the military to bolster its legitimacy. A victory for the junta’s political proxy is guaranteed to be signed off by allied autocracies, including China and Russia, which have each provided military aid to counter the progress of rebel groups. Meanwhile, staging a ballot in late December also coincides with the Christmas and New Year governmental shutdowns in the nations that have been overtly critical of the military’s behavior to date, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Myanmar would not be the only country to use this annual shutdown period in an attempt to consolidate power. In January 2021, in what constituted the single-largest crackdown of opposition voices in the country’s history, 55 pro-democracy lawmakers, activists, and academics were arrested in Hong Kong under the Chinese-inspired National Security Law. The response from the country’s former protectorate, the U.K., was delayed, and ultimately manifested eight weeks later, in the form of a stated violation of the Sino-British Joint Declaration.
In Bangladesh, the final days of December 2018 saw a national election marred by widespread violence, mass arrests, media intimidation, ballot stuffing, and targeted repression of opposition parties. Expecting such protests, given concerns raised by international rights groups over unnecessary delays in issuing visas and obstructions to efforts to independently observe the vote in the lead-up, around 600,000 security forces were deployed for election day. While some governments, such as Canada, issued statements following the elections, little was done in terms of substantive action in the form of sanctions. This instead came in 2021, with U.S. sanctions focusing on human rights abuses rather than election tampering and rights abuses during the election period. Other regimes have similarly used the opportunity to target high-profile opposition individuals.
This includes my home country of Cambodia. On January 7 of this year, Lim Kimya, a vocal critic of the Prime Minister Hun Manet’s regime and former opposition politician, was assassinated on the streets of Bangkok in a move linked with senior members of the political elite in Phnom Penh. While regional correspondents, friends and colleagues of Kimya, and his family worked tirelessly to gain media attention and subsequent action to hold individuals to account over his murder, many have not had such attention. The case of Lim Kimya is unique in many ways because of his dual French citizenship, which drew the attention of France. But for every instance like this, there are dozens of others that go unreported and without anyone being held to account.
The winter shutdown period offers a unique opportunity for action. Politicians and civil servants across Europe and the U.S. leave their posts for 2 weeks, and news rooms scale-down their operations, often limiting output to pre-scheduled stories and domestic-centric breaking news stories. Publics in these countries are also spending well-deserved time with family and friends away from the news and crises, which might ordinarily cause protests and pressure on governments to respond, go unnoticed. For authoritarian leaders, this is a golden opportunity. Time it right, and by the time Western nations are back up and running, the agenda will have moved onto the next crisis or scandal.
Myanmar’s election falls within this window in 2025. The junta first seized control in 2021, while much of the world was in the grips of COVID-19. The coup was instigated following claims of election fraud – charges that were dismissed by Aung San Suu Kyi, her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, and most of the international community. Suu Kyi and others of the political opposition were immediately detained, and thus ensued a conflict that has fragmented the country for almost five years, taken the lives of more than 6,000 citizens and seen 20,000 dissidents arrested. It is clear, from their behavior, that the junta will not countenance ceding control, and that December’s ballot will be far from “free or fair.”
The international community should denounce these elections for the illegitimate charade that they are. From the activists on the ground raising the alarm, to the media outlets sharing the stories with the world, to the politicians leading the call for fresh sanctions, we all have a role to play. Without this, policymakers will return to their desks more than a week later: ample time for cost of living crises, extreme weather events, and a hundred other domestic and foreign policy issues to take precedence.
The case of Lim Kimya shows that, together, we can call attention to these issues and see action. The sustained reporting by regional correspondents and national outlets placed pressure on both the Thai and French authorities to push forward the case against two individuals involved in the assassination, and it compelled Cambodian authorities to confront their actions, even if justice for Kimya remains elusive.
The winter shutdown period is important to allow adequate rest so we can all continue to fight for a better, democratic future throughout the rest of the year. But the stories that emerge during this time cannot be ignored or forgotten. As we return to work in January, we must remember that while we were taking a holiday, the world’s dictators were not.
