Did Climate Change Help Fuel the Los Angeles Wildfires?

Wildfires in Southern California have burned tens of thousands of acres, destroyed thousands of buildings, and killed at least 10 people. Experts say global warming may have set the stage for the catastrophic blazes.

As the planet heats up, rainfall is growing more erratic over much of the globe, leading to wide swings between wet and dry conditions. So-called “weather whiplash” is ramping up the risk of wildfire in California, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.

Last year, Los Angeles saw record rainfall, which fueled the growth of grasses and shrubs, but so far this winter the city has gotten a fraction of its usual rainfall, leaving dense vegetation to dry out. In light of the arid conditions, federal officials warned of “significant fire potential” in the region.

Making matters worse, the region is seeing unusually strong Santa Ana winds, which bring hot, dry air from the mountains out to sea during the winter months. There is little evidence that warming has made the winds more potent, Swain said, but with climate change, California’s dry season is extending into the early winter, when the Santa Ana winds typically take shape. This, he said, “is the key climate change connection to Southern California wildfires.”

Troublingly, dry conditions are likely to persist in the months ahead. The Pacific has officially entered its La Niña phase, U.S. weather officials said Thursday, which typically brings more arid weather to California.

European weather officials announced Friday that 2024 was the hottest year on record and the first to measure more than 1.5 degrees C warmer than the preindustrial era. It is too soon to say if the world has officially breached the 1.5-degree target set forth in the Paris Agreement, which will be judged according to the average temperature over several years, but the record heat is causing alarm.

“Each year in the last decade is one of the 10 warmest on record,” said Samantha Burgess, of the European weather service. “We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5-degree C level defined in the Paris Agreement.”