Trudeau already has Trump irritated. He might make it worse: Ivison

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Donald Trump reportedly described Justin Trudeau as a “behind-your-back guy,†after the two fell out over tariffs during the president-electâ€s first term in office.

As Trudeau continues to languish in domestic opinion polls, he may be tempted to reprise his role as the “behind your back guy†by attempting to appease the president on trade and security to his face, while sub rosa, using him as a warning about what Canadians can expect if they elect the Conservatives.

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Trudeau doesnâ€t have many options left to him but one the polling suggests might work is to compare Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre with Trump.

An online Liberal ad that appeared earlier this year featured the famous shot of Poilievre eating an apple, while refuting a journalistâ€s claim that he has taken a page out of Trumpâ€s book.

The ad then juxtaposes footage of Trump and Poilievre both criticizing the media, complaining their country is “broken,†lambasting left-wing censorship and calling for voters to “bring it home.†In the House of Commons, Trudeau accused Poilievre of “importing far-right American style politics.â€

An Abacus Data poll from January indicated that four in 10 Canadian voters see Trump and Poilievre as similar in several ways. Those respondents who saw them as different were more likely to vote Conservative, while those who saw them as similar tilted towards the Liberals.

“Associating Pierre Poilievre with Donald Trump may be an effective strategy at weakening Poilievreâ€s personal image and raising doubts about his suitability to be prime minister,†said Abacus president David Coletto.

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Itâ€s a transparent tactic. But for Canadians who find Trumpâ€s brand of populism distasteful, there are clear echoes in Poilievreâ€s rhetoric when it comes claiming that he alone represents the people, and that those who disagree with him are not really part of the people but are representatives of an alien elite.

The irony here is that Trudeau himself is an arch-populist, holding a similarly uncompromising view of himself as the only legitimate source of virtue, and a similarly dismissive view of his opponents.

The danger of trying to exploit this opportunity for the prime minister is two-fold: firstly, that Canadians conclude that he is putting his partyâ€s interests ahead of the countryâ€s; and secondly, that Trump, very much an Old Testament politician, takes an eye for an eye.

Canada needs to be seen as a trusted friend, ally and partner. That is not the case right now

Canadaâ€s position is already perilous. The morning after last Tuesdayâ€s election, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters that “Canada will be absolutely fine.†That is the classic triumph of hope over experience.

Trump has promised to reduce personal and corporate taxes and do away with regulations in a host of industries. That is not good news for a neighbouring country that many investors already consider to be bogged down by high taxes and a morass of regulations, such as last weekâ€s decision to impose a cap on oil and gas emissions.

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The recent increase in the capital gains tax by the Liberals is merely the latest act of folly by a government that has proven itself adept at spending taxpayers†money but less able at generating growth.

Canada needs to box clever.

Trump is a president who has already proven his willingness to weaponize tariffs to get what he wants, which when it comes to Canada means more defence spending; more market access for U.S. dairy producers; shifting the rules of origin on auto production in Americaâ€s favour; and eliminating the trade deficit with Canada.

Optimists point out that it was Trump who negotiated the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, but he has already said that he wants it renegotiated, not reviewed, in 2026.

Mexico is likely to come under intense pressure to take action on illegal migration, drugs and crime, or be whacked with 25-per-cent across-the-board tariffs. Trump is looking to re-shore projects, angry at the level of Chinese investment in Mexico, and redress a trade deficit that hit US$162 billion last year. He is keen to force the Mexicans to accept “safe third country†status — so that non-Mexicans hoping to claim asylum at the southern border would have to do so in Mexico, not the U.S. — and for them to take back up to five million of their citizens who entered the States illegally.

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Canada doesnâ€t have to face a nightmare of that magnitude. But there are a host of irritants that are likely to upset a Trump White House: a digital services tax that imposes a three-per-cent levy on American tech giants; the Online Streaming Act, that will require companies like Netflix and YouTube to fund more Canadian content; the Online News Act, that some American legislators believe unfairly targets U.S. companies and violates USMCA; and the perennial discontent over dairy, egg and poultry supply-management systems, which limit production, set prices and restrict imports. The U.S. argues that Canada has not delivered on its USMCA commitments to open itself up to more access.

Canada has a host of advantages over most other countries: it is the U.S.â€s top trading partner and one its largest sources of investment.

As Freeland pointed out, Canada is a bigger market for American goods than China, Japan, the U.K. and France combined.

And it remains the largest exporter of energy to the U.S., in the form of crude oil, natural gas and electricity.

Most Republicans are well-disposed towards this country and the energetic Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne has been active as part of a Team Canada effort to reach out to congressmen, state governors and members of Trumpâ€s inner circle by pointing out this countryâ€s strategic importance.

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But Canada needs to be seen as a trusted friend, ally and partner.

That is not the case right now, given the governmentâ€s plan to take eight more years before hitting NATOâ€s two-per-cent military spending target.

It will be even less the case, if Trudeau yields to temptation and starts to paint himself as the lone progressive action hero resisting the populist barbarians at the gate.

Somebody needs to speak Republican to the incoming administration, and Trudeau is not best placed to do that.

jivison@criffel.ca

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