VictoriaTexas-: Today: Cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average. High: 85 degrees. Winds: E 10-15/G20 mph. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before Noon. Patchy fog before Noon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average. Low: 70 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph. 10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.
Saturday: Cloudy gradually becoming mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average. High: 87 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average. Low: 70 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph. 10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.
Extended Forecast: Sunday through Friday:
Sunday: Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average. High: 89/68 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average. High: 85/62 degrees. Winds: NE 15/G20. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 81/65 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday: Cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 83/69 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 85/68 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph. A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday: Partly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average. High: 86/68 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Synopsis: The cold front that pushed down into the Crossroads on Wednesday evening stalled in South Texas. The boundary slowly moved further south, but by Thursday afternoon, the cold front started moving back from south to north as a warm front.
The high-pressure system stretching from South Texas to the Mississippi River Valley is starting to move off to the east. That will allow the warm front (in deep South Texas) to continue to move back towards the north, while Gulf moisture from the southeast increases in South Texas.
As the moisture levels increase to over 1.5″, combined with cooler air from the north undercutting the warmer air from the south (at the 300 mb/30,000 feet level), this will bring clouds and light rain that could last through Friday. Plus, some small disturbances moving through the area could be enough of a lifting mechanism to bring some thunderstorms during the late morning and into the afternoon hours for the Victoria Crossroads on Friday.
High pressure over central Mexico will start to push south to north and start pushing moisture out of South Texas Friday evening. This movement will start to stifle rain chances as well.
The south to north movement of the warm front will increase temperatures on Friday (mid 80’s to mid 90’s out west). Overnight Friday night into Saturday morning, low temperatures might stay near 70 degrees in some spots. Fire weather is still being watched closely in the drought stricken South Texas region. Rip current hazards will slowly decrease during the day on Friday but will still be concern (Moderate Risk on Friday).
For the long-term period, Saturday through Thursday, the long term starts off with the high-pressure system sitting over northern Mexico/South Texas. The high will keep skies clear, a push down effect and lots of sunshine that will push temperatures above average (80/58 average temperatures) through the weekend. Some areas further west of the Gulf, could hit triple digits. The area will stay breezy through the weekend due to the pull on the high, the warm front and the trough in the region.
A trough will strengthen over the Great Lakes area after moving in from the northern Plains on Sunday. High-pressure over the region will continue to strengthen on Sunday and Monday.
Early next week, disturbances from the west/southwest will push through South Texas. Moisture levels will increase to around 1.5″, combined with energy from the sun, and rain chances will increase on Monday and Tuesday, with the best chances to the west and further away from the water. The increase in winds for Tuesday, will create awareness for fire weather conditions.
Later in the week, a trough will move across the Plains, while Gulf moisture (from the southeast) will continue to move up into South Texas. This dynamic will keep rain chances alive in the Crossroads through much of the work week. Much of the week will stay in the 80’s and 90’s, while overnight doesn’t fall out of the 60’s and 70’s temperature wise.
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