Early guide to the men’s Final Four: Auburn vs. Florida and Duke vs. Houston todayheadline

The men’s Final Four is set — and it’s all No. 1 seeds for the first time since 2008.

The Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers will open the semifinal action at 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, followed by the Houston Cougars and Duke Blue Devils at 8:49 p.m. ET (both on CBS).

With all chalk on the San Antonio River Walk, who do our college basketball experts see facing off in the national championship on April 7?

They break down how each team reached the NCAA tournament national semifinals and its keys to advancing to the title game and also predict the winners. (Hint: They agree on one matchup, but not the other.)

Jump to: Auburn vs. Florida | Duke vs. Houston

Final Four preview

What to know about Florida

The No. 1 factor that helped Florida reach the Final Four: No team in America has been able to turn games in their favor with devastating runs the way the Gators have.

Down nine points with 3:14 to play against Texas Tech, they ended the game on an 18-4 run akin to ones we have seen from them multiple times this season. Just in this tournament, they outscored Maryland 47-33 in the second half of their Sweet 16 win and had 53 points in less than 17 minutes against Norfolk State in the opening round.

They have launched those same knockout punches against other elite teams, too. In the SEC tournament championship, Florida was tied with Tennessee at 16 with 11:30 to play in the first half. Eight minutes later, the Gators had a 12-point lead.

Florida is college basketball’s equivalent of a home run hitter in the bottom of the ninth inning. It’s never over with the Gators because of the way they can seize control of games, even when they seem out of reach.

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Walter Clayton Jr.’s late 3s propel Florida to the Final Four

Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. hits a pair of clutch 3-pointers late to send the Gators to the Final Four.

Florida’s key against Auburn: Walter Clayton Jr.’s brilliance.

The Final Four is all about stars. The teams that have players who shine under the brightest lights are the teams that ultimately cut down the nets and win national championships. There is a reason we mention Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, Kemba Walker, Mateen Cleaves and Jay Williams when we discuss the greatest NCAA tournament runs. Star power reigns. And next to Cooper Flagg, Florida might have the biggest star of them all in Clayton Jr. His sheer will and talent could be the deciding factors in whether the Gators win the title. — Myron Medcalf

What to know about Auburn

The No. 1 factor that helped Auburn reach the Final Four: Tightening up defensively.

When Auburn had its struggles down the stretch of the season, losing three of four games, the Tigers basically fell apart defensively. They allowed at least 1.13 points per possession in all three of the defeats, committing too many fouls and struggling to defend the rim. Since the NCAA tournament tipped, though, they have looked much more like the team that started the season 27-2. Bruce Pearl’s team has done a much better job limiting easy opportunities, allowing only Creighton to reach one point per possession.

Denver Jones is one of the elite perimeter defenders in the country, the Tigers defend the 3-point arc incredibly well and Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell protect the paint. Limiting fouls will be key, though.

Auburn’s key against Florida: Johni Broome.

Broome took an awkward fall midway through the second half of Sunday’s Elite Eight win over Michigan State and immediately went to the locker room, offering words of encouragement to Chaney Johnson and giving his parents an update on the way. It looked like his night — and perhaps more — was over. But Broome came out of the locker room after only five minutes of game action and checked back in then quickly buried a 3-pointer to give Auburn a boost.

He seemed healthy enough to perform at a high level this Saturday, but he will need to be at 100 percent to compete with Florida’s deep and talented frontcourt. — Jeff Borzello

Florida vs. Auburn prediction

Jeff Borzello: Florida wins, 82-79
Joe Lunardi: Florida wins, 85-80
Myron Medcalf: Florida wins, 88-84

Florida led the first meeting between these teams by as many as 21 points before winning 90-81 on the road. The Gators made 13 3s against the Tigers’ SEC-best 3-point defense, and Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. cemented his case as the best guard in the country. Florida hasn’t slowed down since then, and neither has Clayton, who has put on one of the all-time late-game shot-making performances in this NCAA tournament. Can Denver Jones limit Clayton’s clean looks?

The Gators have the size and depth inside to make life difficult for Johni Broome and can win in more ways than the Tigers can. — Jeff Borzello

What to know about Houston

The No. 1 factor that helped Houston reach the Final Four: 3-point shooting.

The easy answer would be D — and we will get to the Cougars’ elite defensive unit. But the biggest difference between this year’s team and previous iterations of Kelvin Sampson’s program is the Cougars’ ability to consistently make shots from the perimeter. They lead the country in 3-point shooting, making nearly 40% of their shots from behind the arc, with three starters shooting 42% or better.

Houston has averaged nine made 3s per game in the NCAA tournament, and it was able to take all the life out of Tennessee in the Elite Eight with dagger 3 after dagger 3 late in the game. The Cougars hit five treys in the final 5:30 on Sunday, ruining any chance of a Volunteers comeback.

Houston’s key against Duke: Defense > offense.

Saturday’s Final Four showdown against Duke will feature the most efficient offense in the KenPom era (since 1996-97) against the nation’s best defense. Can the Cougars slow down the Blue Devils? Duke has been torching teams all season, capable of beating opponents in a variety of ways, whether it’s via Cooper Flagg, 3-point shooting or using its superior size to finish around the rim.

Houston will need to muck up the game, make sure it stays mostly in a half-court setting and then try to lean on its experience and physicality to get Duke’s young stars out of their rhythm. Will the best defense be better than the best offense? Houston has to hope that’s the case. — Jeff Borzello

What to know about Duke

The No. 1 factor that helped Duke reach the Final Four: Duke is simply more talented than any other team.

Cooper Flagg and fellow NBA prospects Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel deserve most of the credit, but the fleet of talent down the roster has enhanced everything that coach Jon Scheyer has done with it.

It has made practices more competitive. It has allowed the team to overcome adversity (see: winning the ACC tournament title with Flagg injured). And it means that in the final stage of the season, the players coming off the bench would be starters for many other teams — Caleb Foster was a top-30 recruit in high school, Isaiah Evans could be selected early in the second round of this summer’s NBA draft, Mason Gillis helped Purdue reach the national title game a year ago and Patrick Ngongba II was 26th in ESPN’s ranking of the 2024 recruiting class. How many teams are bringing players of that pedigree off the bench?

Top to bottom, there just isn’t a team in the field that can assemble a comparable collection of elite players.

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Bilas explains how Duke shut down Alabama’s offense

Jay Bilas and Jay Williams break down Duke’s emphatic win over Alabama in the Elite 8.

Duke’s key against Houston: The Blue Devils’ ability to protect the rim and defend the paint.

This Duke team has one of the top defensive units in recent program history. Against an Alabama squad that made 25 3-pointers in the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils forced the Crimson Tide into awkward, off-balance shots. Alabama plays at the fastest pace in America, but Duke turned that tempo into chaos, limiting Alabama’s options around the rim.

The Blue Devils are assertive with their interior defense, whether it’s Khaman Maluach altering and blocking shots, Cooper Flagg guarding players for 90 feet or others challenging opponents on the perimeter then feeding them to the Blue Devils’ big men. Alabama was outscored in the paint by double digits Saturday, in part because Duke does not give opposing teams space to get comfortable in the post. — Myron Medcalf

Houston vs. Duke predictions

Jeff Borzello: Duke wins, 70-68
Myron Medcalf: Duke wins, 74-70

This is going to be an incredible contrast of elite offense versus elite defense, featuring one of the youngest teams in the country versus one of the oldest teams. The problem for the Cougars is that the Blue Devils also have an elite defense to go with their historically good offense.

Duke can switch everything and is able to run good shooters off the 3-point line with Khaman Maluach in the paint to protect the rim. Houston will try to disrupt Duke, but the Blue Devils’ offense has been unfazed by pretty much anything all season. That will continue in San Antonio. — Jeff Borzello

Joe Lunardi: Houston wins, 75-70

Duke freshmen Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II make up as good a frontcourt as any college coach could want. They are also 18, 19, 18 and 19 years old, respectively. Houston will counter with J’Wan Roberts (age 23, 170 career games), Ja’Vier Francis (22, 128 games), Terrance Arceneaux (22, 83 games) and Joseph Tugler (20, 66 games). It is a massive difference in experience and basketball maturity.

Generally, I would still pick talent over experience, but it’s not like the Houston guys are unaccomplished. The Cougars have won 159 games in the J’Wan Roberts-Kelvin Sampson era. This is their second Final Four together. The Cougars, at 17 victories in a row, can also claim the nation’s longest current winning streak. They have lost just once since November and have lost only once in regulation all season.

This is a fabulous matchup in every way, but I’m taking the experienced veterans over the most talented freshmen in the tournament. — Joe Lunardi