November 2024 was Earth’s second-warmest November on record behind November 2023, according to an analysis of global data going back to 1850, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported Dec 12. NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service also rated November 2024 as the second-warmest November on record. NASA placed November at 1.54 degrees Celsius (2.77°F) above the 1880-1899 period, its best estimate for when preindustrial temperatures last occurred. Both November 2023 and November 2024 came in well above all preceding Novembers in all three databases.
As opposed to being focused in one region or another, the record heat was unusually widespread. About 10.6% of the world’s surface experienced record heat, NOAA said, setting a record for the month of November.
Land areas had their second-warmest November on record in 2024, according to NOAA, and global ocean temperatures were also the second-warmest on record. The recent record heat in the oceans in 2024 has brought on a global coral bleaching event, the fourth one in recorded history (1998, 2010, 2014-17, and now 2024).
It was the warmest November on record for Asia, second-warmest for South America and Oceana, third-warmest for North America, eighth-warmest for Africa, and 13th-warmest for Europe. The Caribbean had its second-warmest November on record, while the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes (from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean, between 10°N and 20°N) were record-warm.
For the year to date, the January-to-November global surface temperature ranked warmest in NOAA’s 175-year record. According to NOAA/NCEI’s statistical analysis, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record, which would give the planet two consecutive warmest years on record. It appears unlikely Earth will again see a year in the 20th-century temperature range for many years to come unless there is major volcanic cooling, a major geoengineering push, and/or a sustained, worldwide effort to reduce fossil-fuel emissions.
Sixth-warmest November, warmest fall, and warmest year-to-date period on record for the contiguous U.S.
As detailed by Bob Henson in a Dec. 9 post, the contiguous U.S. had its sixth-warmest November on record, its warmest autumn (Sep. – Nov.), and warmest year-to-date (Jan.-Nov.) period on record. This sets up a sizable chance that 2024 will end up as the hottest year in U.S. history. However, 2024 may fall short of the current record-holder, 2012. That year had the 20th-warmest December in U.S. history, whereas this month to date has seen cold temperatures in the East roughly balancing warmth in the West, making the month near-average in temperature. Widespread warmer-than-average air is projected to take hold next week, but cold snaps this weekend and late this month may make it challenging for December to end with significantly above-average temperatures.
As of Nov. 1, the inflation-adjusted tally of U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters in 2024 has been 24. These include 17 severe storm events, four hurricanes, one wildfire, and two winter storms. Drought costs thus far in the U.S. amount to $1.7-$2 billion (according to Gallagher Re and Aon), so NOAA will likely be adding another billion-dollar disaster from drought. The average number of billion-dollar disasters for a full year for the most recent five years (2019–2023) is 20.4; the record was 28, set in 2023.
Over 3/4 of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades
That’s according to a December 9 report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), about 78% of Earth’s land became permanently drier during the three decades up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period, and 7.6% of global lands – an area larger than Canada – were pushed across aridity thresholds (i.e. from non-drylands to drylands, or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes). Drylands expanded to an area nearly a third larger than India and now cover more than 40 per cent of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).
UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw said: “Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation. Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
In an extreme global warming scenario, nearly five billion people — including in most of Europe, parts of the western U.S., Brazil, eastern Asia and central Africa — would be affected by the drying by the end of the century, up from 2.3 billion today, the report warned. Forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide. In addition, increased aridity cuts crop yields, promotes wildfires, increases conflict, and increases poverty, sickness, and death.
A La Niña watch in effect
Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions continued during Novmeber, NOAA reported in its latest Dec. 12 monthly discussion ENSO discussion. A La Niña event is still projected to occur during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2024-25, but only be weak and short-lived.
According to the official NOAA probabilistic forecast, which is based on expert judgment drawing from observations and model data, La Niña conditions are expected (59% chance) during November-January. A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is then expected by March-May 2025 (61% chance).
Sea ice: 3rd-lowest November extent on record for the Arctic; lowest for the Antarctic
Arctic sea ice extent during November 2024 was the third-lowest in the 46-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Since 2012, the two largest departures from average extent in any month have occurred in autumn—November 2016 and October 2020—and November 2024 was similarly extreme. The Arctic had its second-warmest November on record.
Antarctic sea ice extent in November was the lowest November extent on record, narrowly beating out 2016 and 2023. The Antarctic region was slightly below-average in temperature.
Greenland ice melt raised global sea level about 0.2 mm in 2024
According to Danish Meteorological Institute scientists Martin Stendel and Ruth Mottram, a relatively cool summer caused Greenland to lose about 80 gigatons (Gt) of ice in 2024, the lowest ice loss since 2018. It takes 360 Gt of melted ice to raise global sea level by about 1 mm, so ice loss from Greenland in 2024 raised global sea level by about 0.2 mm. Sea level rise has been about 3.5 mm/year since 1993 but has accelerated in recent years. The peak years for melting in Greenland were 2012 and 2019 when over 400 Gt of ice was lost – enough to raise global sea level by over 1 mm.
Arctic Report Card of 2024 released
The annual Arctic Report Card was issued on December 10, and reported these highlights from 2024:
- Arctic annual surface air temperatures ranked second warmest since 1900.
- Summer 2024 was the wettest summer on record, and Arctic precipitation has shown an increasing trend from 1950 through 2024, with the most pronounced increases occurring in winter.
- In September 2024, the extent of sea ice, which has a profound influence on the Arctic environment, was the sixth-lowest in the 45-year satellite record.
- Tundra greenness, a measure of expanding shrub cover due to warming temperatures, ranked second highest in the 25-year satellite record.
- When including the impact of increased wildfire activity, the Arctic tundra region has shifted from storing carbon in the soil to becoming a carbon dioxide source.
- Arctic migratory tundra caribou populations have declined by 65% over the last 2-3 decades. While the generally smaller coastal herds of the western Arctic have seen some recovery over roughly the last decade, previously large inland herds are continuing a long-term decline or remain at the lowest populations noted by Indigenous elders.
- The Northwest Passage through the Canadian Archipelago became clear of ice along the southern route in late August. The summer 2024 extent in the Passage reached the lowest observed in the satellite record.
- At the end of summer 2024, multiyear ice extent was similar to 2022 and 2023 values, 40% of the multiyear extents in the 1980s and 1990s.
Notable global heat and cold marks for November 2024
The information below is courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera. Follow him on Bluesky at https://bsky.app/profile/extremetemps.bsky.social
- Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 41.0°C (105.8°F) at Turbat, Pakistan (Nov. 3), and at 3 Mexican stations: Jesus Maria (Nov. 14), Ciudad Altamirano (Nov. 21), and Ejido Nuevo Leon (Nov. 6);
- Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -57.4°C (-71.3°F) at Summit, Greenland, Nov. 30;
- Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 45.9°C (114.6°F) at Roebourne, Australia (Nov. 2) and Marble Bar, Australia (Nov. 13); and
- Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -58.9°C (-74.0°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, Nov. 7.
Major weather stations in November: 3 all-time heat records, 0 all-time cold records
Among global stations with a record of at least 40 years, three set, not just tied, an all-time heat record in November; no stations set an all-time cold record:
Maripasoula (French Guiana, France) max. 38.2°C, Nov. 4;
Grand Santi (French Guiana, France) max. 39.3°·C, Nov. 6: New Territorial record high for French Guiana;
Sabu Island (Indonesia) max. 36.9°C, Nov. 19.
Twenty-one all-time national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of November
Cocos Islands (Australia): 32.8°C (91.0°F), February 28, February 29, April 7 (tie);
Costa Rica: 41.0°C (105.8°F) at Cerro Huacalito, March 6; broken again with 41.5°C, March 23, at the same location;
Comoros: 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Hahaya Airport, March 12;
Congo Brazzaville: 39.6°C (103.3°F) at Impfondo, March 13;
Maldives: 35.1°C (95.2°F) at Hanimadhoo, March 24; tied at the same location on April 11;
Togo: 44.0°C (111.2°F) at Mango, March 31;
Mali: 48.5°C (119.3°F) at Kayes, April 3;
Belize: 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Barton Creek, April 10; tied on May 17 at Chaa Creek;
Chad: 48.0°C (118.4°F) at Faya, April 24; tied on June 5 at the same location;
Cambodia: 42.8°C (109.0°F) at Preah Viehar and Svay Leu, April 27;
Laos: 43.7°C (110.7°F) at Tha Ngon, May 1; (3rd time that the previous all-time record was beaten in 2024);
Ghana: 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Navrongo, May 1;
Palau: 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Babelthuap Int. Airport, May 29 (tie); beaten again with (Palau) 35.6°C at Koror on June 2; and
Egypt: 50.9°C (123.6°F) at Assuan, June 7;
Mexico: 52.0°C (125.6°F) at Tepache, June 20 (tie);
Dominican Republic: 41.4°C (106.5°F), at Boca de Mao, August 8;
Colombia: 43.4°C (110.1°F), at Jerusalen, September 14;
Saint Barthelemy (France): 35.8°C (96.4°F) at Gustavia, September 24;
Dominica: 36.6°C (97.9°F) at Canefield;
Bolivia: 47.0°C (116.6°F) at Villamontes, October 7 (tie); and
French Guiana (France): 39.3°C (102.7°F) at Gustavia, November 6.
One hundred ninety-four additional monthly national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of November
In addition to the 21 all-time national/territorial records set so far in 2024 (plus five nations that tied or broke their all-time record in multiple months), 194 nations or territories have set or tied monthly all-time heat records as of the end of November 2024, for a total of 220 such records:
- January (15): Mayotte, Dominica, Saba, Cocos Islands, Malta, Hong Kong, Ivory Coast, Maldives, Andorra, Portugal, Costa Rica, UK, Seychelles, Martinique, St. Barthelemy
- February (18): Maldives, French Guiana, Guyana, Dominica, Curacao, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, U.S. Virgin Islands, Belize, North Korea, Morocco, French Southern Territories, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Peru, Laos, Chad, Togo
- March (24): Paraguay, Samoa, Zimbabwe, Dominica, Cameroon, Ghana, Guyana, French Guiana, Dominican Republic, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Saba, British Indian Ocean Territories, Solomon Islands, Suriname, Guatemala, Croatia, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Benin, Burkina Faso
- April (28): Dominica, French Southern Territories, Costa Rica, French Polynesia, French Guiana, Guyana, Mauritania, Ivory Coast, Saba, Comoros, British Indian Ocean Territories, Mauritius, China, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Cape Verde, Nepal, Zimbabwe, Cyprus, Turkey, Niger, Jordan, Israel, Vietnam, Colombia, St. Barthelemy, Laos
- May (20): Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Tuvalu, Ivory Coast, Dominica, Niue, Brazil, Martinique, Maldives, Costa Rica, Mexico, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Saba, Cocos Islands, Niger, Kuwait, Iraq, St. Eustatius
- June (25): French Southern Territories, Guatemala, Aruba, Curacao, Zimbabwe, Comoros, Grenada, St. Eustatius, North Korea, New Zealand, Dominica, Cocos Islands, Costa Rica, Mauritius, Martinique, Taiwan, Paraguay, Algeria, Turkey, St. Pierre and Miquelon, Kuwait, China, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Malaysia
- July (16): U.S. Virgin Islands, Palau, Cocos Islands, Aruba, British Indian Ocean Territories, Dominica, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Mauritius, Maldives, Curacao, Solomon Islands, Northern Marianas, Brunei. Mozambique, French Guiana
- August (11): Palau, French Southern Territories, Australia, British Indian Ocean Territories, Svalbard, Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, Ecuador, Comoros, Guadeloupe
- September (14): Taiwan, Slovenia, Sweden, Norway, Mexico, Colombia, North Korea, Hong Kong, Cuba, Bangladesh, Nepal, Cocos Islands, Gabon, Malaysia
- October (11): U.S., Mexico, Saba, Maldives, British Indian Ocean Territories, Brazil, Seychelles, Chile, French Southern Territories, Solomon Islands, Guadeloupe
- November (12): India, Japan, Iran, Pakistan, UAE, Faroe Islands, Maldives, Portugal, British Indian Ocean Territories, Iceland, French Southern Territories, Vanuatu
Three monthly national/territorial cold records beaten or tied as of the end of November
China set an all-time cold record for the month of February.
Qatar set an all-time cold record for the month of March.
Myanmar set an all-time cold record for the month of September.
Hemispherical and continental temperature records in 2024
- Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in January in Asia: 28.5°C (83.3°F) at Bangkok Klong Thoey, Thailand, January 14
- Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in February in Asia: 29.1°C (84.1°F) at Diego Garcia (British Indian Territories), February 18
- Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in March in South America: 31.6°C (88.9°F) at Mariscal Estigarribia, Paraguay, March 17
- Highest temperature ever recorded in April in Africa: 48.5°C (119.3°F) at Kayes, Mali, April 3
- Highest temperature ever recorded in May in North America: 51.1°C (124.0°F) at Gallinas, Mexico, May 9
- Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in May in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.7°C (85.5°F) at Funafuti, Tuvalu, May 21
- Highest temperature ever recorded in June in Africa: 50.9°C (123.6°F) at Assuan, Egypt, June 7
- Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in June in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.3°C (84.7°F) at Funafuti, Tuvalu, June 18
- Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in July in the Southern Hemisphere: 28.8°C (83.8°F) at Nukunonu, Tokelau, New Zealand territory, July 16
- Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in August in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.7°C (85.5°F) at Filadelfia, Paraguay, August 3
- Highest temperature ever recorded in August and in all of winter in Oceania: 41.6°C (105.8°F) at Yampi Sound, Australia, August 26
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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