Ecuadoreans are voting on whether to lift a constitutional ban on foreign military bases as right-wing President Daniel Noboa pushes for help from the United States in confronting spiralling drug-fuelled violence.
Nearly 14 million people cast ballots on Sunday in a referendum that also asks whether to reduce the number of lawmakers.
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The vote comes as Ecuador grapples with unprecedented bloodshed, with the country’s homicide rate projected to hit 50 per 100,000 people this year, the highest in Latin America.
Polls suggest more than 61 percent of voters back allowing foreign bases, which would likely see the US return to the Manta airbase on the Pacific coast.
US forces operated from Manta between 1999 and 2009 as part of anti-narcotics efforts, until leftist President Rafael Correa held a referendum on foreign troops, resulting in their constitutional ban.
Ecuador, once considered one of the more stable countries in the region, has in recent years faced a sharp rise in violence, with drug cartels, including powerful ones from Mexico, exploiting porous borders and weak institutions to expand their influence.
Noboa, a 37-year-old heir to a prominent banana-exporting fortune, who took office in November 2023, has responded with militarised crackdowns, deployed soldiers to the streets and prisons, launched raids on gang strongholds, declared states of emergency and tightened security at key infrastructure hubs.
The first half of this year saw 4,619 murders, the highest on record, according to Ecuador’s Organized Crime Observatory.
As voting opened, Noboa announced the capture in Spain of Wilmer Geovanny Chavarria Barre, known as Pipo, leader of the notorious Los Lobos gang, who had faked his death and fled to Europe.
He was arrested in the Spanish city of Malaga after Ecuadorean authorities worked with their Spanish counterparts to track him down.
Interior Minister John Reimberg linked Chavarria to more than 400 killings and said he had run criminal networks from behind bars for eight years until 2019.
Noboa said the Los Lobos chief had overseen illicit mining schemes and maintained trafficking connections with Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel, all whilst hiding in Europe under a false identity.
The US designated Los Lobos and Los Choneros, another Ecuadorian crime syndicate, as “terrorist” organisations in September.
Critics question whether military force alone can address the crisis.
Former President Correa has described the return of foreign forces as “an insult to our public forces and an assault to our sovereignty”, adding: “We do not need foreign soldiers. We need government.”
The referendum also includes questions on a constituent assembly that opposition groups fear could allow Noboa to consolidate power.
In August, Noboa led a demonstration against Constitutional Court justices, with officials calling them “enemies of the people” after they limited expansive security laws.
Critics of the president also argue that a constitutional rewrite will not solve problems like insecurity and poor access to health and education services.
Ecuador became a major cocaine transit hub after the 2016 peace deal in Colombia demobilised guerrillas from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), with international trafficking organisations quickly filling the void.
The country’s Pacific ports, proximity to coca-producing Peru and Colombia, and weak institutions have made it central to the global cocaine supply chain.
Noboa, who survived an attack in October when his car was surrounded by protesters and struck by bullets, has compared his security approach to that of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, posting images of shaven-headed inmates in orange uniforms at a new mega-prison.
