International outrage in recent days has focused on Donald Trump’s proposal that the US take “ownership” of Gaza, and that more than two million Palestinians be displaced to allow the territory to be transformed from “a demolition site” into a “riviera” in the Middle East.
In Jordan and Egypt, the demand that both countries accept huge numbers of Palestinians from Gaza – potentially on a permanent basis – has prompted equal concern. Leaders of both countries immediately rejected the proposal, and the Jordanian king, Abdullah II, and the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, are heading to Washington in an attempt to convince Trump to change course.
“They are terrified that an Israeli policy of population transfer will actually become real,” said Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow of the Middle East programme at the Chatham House thinktank in London.
Abdullah and Sisi know that they are vulnerable to Trump’s trademark transactional style of geopolitics as their countries’ economies and security depend heavily on huge levels of US aid and trade.
Jordan accepted large numbers of displaced Palestinians in 1948 during the wars surrounding the foundation of Israel, and in 1967 when Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza. A large proportion of Jordan’s population – probably more than half – is of Palestinian origin, with many still classed as refugees.
Katrina Sammour, an independent Amman-based analyst, said: “It would be a repeat trauma of an already traumatised people. The Nakba [the displacement of 1948] is still very fresh in the collective memory of the Arab people.”
The role, presence and future of Palestinians in Jordan is one of the country’s most politically sensitive issues.
In 1970, armed factions of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation came close to wresting control of the kingdom from the current king’s father, Hussein. Though a repeat is highly unlikely, the events 55 years ago have not been forgotten.
Jordanian officials have been warning of the consequences of displacement of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank since the beginning of the war, as violence there has increased and Israeli settlements have expanded. An effort to force Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan – long an ambition of Israel’s right wing – would be a red line regarded as a “declaration of war” by their militarily powerful neighbour, the officials have said.
“The Jordanians are very worried that what happens in Gaza [could open] the door to the annexation [by Israel] of the West Bank,” Quilliam said.
Authorities in Jordan have faced months of domestic protests calling for stronger measures in support of Palestinians, and any move to comply with Trump’s demands would be seen as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause. But Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel and close military and economic ties with the US. It also receives massive and vital financial aid from Washington, giving Trump significant leverage. Officials in Amman privately refer to the “balancing act” required by the kingdom.
“The questions of who counts as Jordanian and what it means to be Jordanian are highly combustible,” said Alia Brahimi, a regional expert at the Atlantic Council. “So there’s the demographic issue, but also the fact that Trump is drawing attention to King Abdullah’s ties to Israel and his alliance with and dependence on the US. Both matters have the very real potential to destabilise the Jordanian monarchy.”
Another issue is practical. The Jordanian economy has suffered through the war and public services are stretched to breaking point. Security services have struggled to contain Islamist extremists, while support for more moderate Islamists has apparently surged.
Sammour said: “A plan like this needs years of preparation … It could be a security nightmare, and Jordan would be seen as betraying the Palestinian cause.”
In Cairo, security is a major concern, especially in the highly sensitive zone of the Sinai desert where some have suggested vast refugee camps could be built. Egypt has refused to allow Palestinians in Gaza to flee into its territory during the 16-month war there, fearing a massive and destabilising influx that could become permanent.
Brahimi said: “Amongst a forcibly displaced population there are always going to be militants, whether Hamas or new groups looking to stand up for a new generation of brutalised and disenfranchised Palestinians. If they were to operate from Egyptian soil this would endanger and likely upend Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel, but it would also energise and embolden local militant groups that are opposed to the Egyptian regime.”
Egypt also has deep economic problems, despite receiving vast amounts of aid from the US and elsewhere. “Egypt is a huge country but this would come with a huge … economic cost,” said Quilliam. “The Egyptian economy already has massive problems.”
Security services in Egypt struggle to keep a lid on discontent and officials fear new instability could lead to another mass protest movement like in 2011. Brahimi said: “As with King Abdullah of Jordan, there’s the potential for political calamity too, in that neither Arab leader can afford to be complicit in the systematic ethnic cleansing of Palestine. Frankly, Trump has given voice to the worst nightmares of the leaderships in Amman and Cairo.”
Trump appears to disagree. In the press conference with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president said Abdullah and Sisi would come around to his proposal and “open their hearts [to] give us the kind of land that we need to get this done and people can live in harmony and in peace”.
