OTTAWA — Canada’s leading election forecaster says that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is a near lock to win the upcoming Battle River—Crowfoot byelection, but adds that the more interesting question could be by how much.
“I just don’t see Poilievre losing this, or even coming close to losing this,” Philippe J. Fournier, founder of
election forecasting website 338Canada
, told the National Post on Thursday.
“When we look at the history of this riding, going back decades, the Conservative candidate gets 70 or 80 per cent of the vote every time,” said Fournier.
338Canada currently projects that Poilievre will win between
65 and 81 per cent
of the popular vote in the Aug. 18 byelection.
Early voting in the byelection
starts Friday and will run though Monday.
Conservative Damien Kurek won a commanding 83 per cent in April’s federal election, before stepping aside to open a seat for Poilievre.
Fournier says that, if anything, the forecasting model used by 338Canada, which draws from
national and regional polls
, as well as historical trends, underestimates Poilievre’s support in the riding.
“If I had to bet, I would say that Poilievre will probably beat my projection … I have the NDP in the low single digits but, usually, in byelections where they’re not competitive, their numbers completely tank,” said Fournier.
“If this does happen, it could boost Poilievre to the high 70s,” he added.
Fournier stressed that Poilievre is still unlikely to match or exceed Kurek’s showing.
“The data I have access to so far says easy win for Mr. Poilievre, most likely below Mr. Kurek,” said Fournier.
Fournier also cautioned that the quality and
quantity of independent candidates
in the race adds an additional layer of uncertainty.
There will be a
record 214 candidates on
the byelection ballot, after the riding was targeted by electoral reform activist group the Longest Ballot Committee.
338Canada projects that independent candidates will win anywhere between 4 and 18 per cent of the vote.
“I put (independents) in a lump sum because I do not have the data to say how each of the 200 plus candidates will do,” said Fournier.
Fournier says he expects
local issues focused independent candidate
Bonnie Critchley to be the biggest “x factor” affecting Poilievre’s vote share.
“If Ms. Critchley really connects and gets 15 per cent, the Liberals get 10, suddenly you have a 25 per cent or more who aren’t voting Conservative,” said Fournier.
Critchley, a retired Canadian Forces master corporal and local horse breeder, has received significant national attention for her “our home, our riding” campaign, recently picking up a high-profile endorsement from
Dragons’ Den star Arlene Dickinson
.
“What I wonder is, do the voters of Battle River
—Crowfoot pay attention to what people in Ottawa are saying about Ms. Critchley?” said Fournier.
Fournier said that he doubted an underwhelming result would, in itself, derail Poilievre.
“If he gets 50 per cent or 75 per cent there’s no real difference … we’ll all have forgotten about it by the time he takes his seat in September.”
Poilievre will
face a leadership review
at the Conservative Party’s next convention, set to take place in Calgary in January.
National Post
rmohamed@postmedia.com
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