Lucid Group (LCID) is ready to ramp up sales aggressively over the next year or two. Following this year’s release of its Gravity SUV platform, analysts now expect sales to jump by 73% in 2025. Next year, analysts predict another 96% jump in sales.
But it’s not just sales growth that investors should monitor. The two metrics below are equally important to track.
Lucid investors should monitor these two numbers
As of last year, both Tesla and Rivian Automotive — popular EV stocks that compete with Lucid — achieved positive gross margins. Lucid, meanwhile, continues to lose money on every car it sells. Some analysts believe gross margins will stay negative for the company through 2026 even though management has stated that they expect profitability to improve incrementally over that time period.
A lack of profitability has forced Lucid to raise more debt from its biggest investors. But the company has also turned to share dilution in order to plug the financing gap. Over the past year, Lucid’s total shares outstanding have increased by roughly 30%.
LCID Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts
Why are these numbers important to track? Rivian was able to achieve positive margins last quarter without any models priced under $50,000 — a feat that typically allows an EV manufacturer to scale considerably — a boon for most profitability metrics.
By contrast, Lucid is still a few years out from releasing more affordable vehicles, and it doesn’t benefit as strongly from selling automotive regulatory credits. However, improvements in gross margins similar to what Rivian was able to achieve should slow cash burn, reducing the need to raise more debt and further dilute shareholders.
Image source: Getty Images.
Still, the path forward for Lucid will require additional funding. The company has a reliable investor in Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, but minority shareholders could end up holding the bag if margins don’t improve and major dilution is necessary.
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
