On its third day since rocketing to Category 5 strength, Hurricane Erin continued to churn across the northwest Atlantic on Monday, maintaining Cat 4 strength while building an unusually expansive wind field. Erin’s center remains firmly on track to avoid striking land, but squalls on the outer fringes of Erin could nudge across the Southeast and Central Bahamas by Tuesday and North Carolina’s Outer Banks and/or Bermuda by Wednesday and Thursday, possibly bringing tropical-storm-force winds and bursts of heavy rain.
As of 2 p.m. EDT Monday, Hurricane Erin was centered about 140 miles north of Grand Turk Island in the Turks and Caicos Islands, heading west-northwest at 10 mph (16 km/h) with top sustained winds of 140 mph (225 km/h). Erin’s central pressure was 937 mb.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered for Hatteras and Ocracoke islands of North Carolina, with visitors ordered to leave on Monday and residents on Tuesday. Erin’s powerful surf may push through protective dunes, and overwash and/or erosion could leave a key roadway impassable for days. Waves in the local surf zones could reach 20 feet. Life-threatening rip currents are expected along much of the U.S. East Coast all week.
Tropical-storm-force winds could affect easternmost North Carolina and the Bahamas, especially during squally rainbands. The odds of such winds are a bit higher than the 5% to 20% values depicted Monday on the National Hurricane Center’s probabilistic wind guidance. The reason: These numbers are based on average hurricane characteristics over the past few years, but Erin will be a much-larger-than-average hurricane by midweek.
Erin slides close enough to rake parts of multiple islands
Although Erin’s long-term track has been well predicted, the storm has consistently nudged just a bit west of forecasts and moved a bit more slowly than expected. Moreover, an eyewall replacement cycle over the weekend brought Erin down to Cat 3 strength; since then, the hurricane has carved out a larger eyewall and a broader overall circulation. These factors have combined to bolster the impact of Erin’s outer fringes.
Rainbands and squally winds have swept through north-facing parts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti, as well as much of the Turks and Caicos Islands. A systematic shutdown was ordered for the islands of Grand Turk, Salt Cay, and South Caicos through 10 p.m. local time Monday, with all nonessential activities halted.
Two-day rainfall totals through Monday morning included 6.05 inches on the west end of St. Thomas Island and Charlotte Amalie and several three- to five-inch amounts in central Puerto Rico.
Track forecast for Erin
Erin’s multiday tendency to move just slightly west of forecasts becomes crystal clear when looking at Fig. 2 below. Over the past 10 days, virtually every consensus track drawn from multiple model ensembles has ended up a slight bit west of the previous one.
At the same time, Erin’s overall recurving track has been well-advertised, and the westward nudges haven’t affected the big-picture prognosis. As expected, a break in the strong east-to-west ridge of high pressure will allow Erin to make a northward break and move between North Carolina and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by acceleration into the remote North Atlantic later this week.
Intensity forecast for Erin
Even though Erin will be moving more briskly northward away from the tropics on Tuesday, it will be passing over the warmest water of its entire journey: Sea surface temperatures are expected to peak between 30 and 31 degrees Celsius (86-88 degrees Fahrenheit). Strong northerly wind shear of 25-30 knots was doing little to hinder Erin on Monday now that the storm had enlarged, and the shear should drop into the 10-20 knot range from Tuesday through Wednesday. The midlevel atmosphere will also moisten, with relative humidity projected to rise from around 55% on Monday to 70% by late Tuesday.
With all this in mind, Erin is expected to remain a potent Category 4 hurricane into Tuesday and could even strengthen a bit, although the National Hurricane Center was not predicting Erin to regain Cat 5 strength in its 11 a.m. EDT Monday forecast. Gradual weakening is predicted from Tuesday onward, bringing Erin below major-hurricane strength by Thursday. Given Erin’s resiliency and its newly enlarged size, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Erin a bit stronger than expected for at least a day or two.
Which way will the next Atlantic system track?
As Erin flexes its strength in the northwest Atlantic, a new system will be increasingly vying for attention. A broad, loosely organized disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic was producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity on Monday, but multiple ensemble and operational runs suggest this system could intensify and reach the northern Leeward Islands as soon as the upcoming weekend. In its 2 p.m. EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system a 60% chance of development over the next seven days, with a 10% chance of development occurring as soon as Thursday.
There’s been widespread disagreement among models on the longer-term future of this system. The GFS model has been the most bullish, with many recent runs depicting a tropical depression or tropical storm moving west-northwest across or near the Greater Antilles this weekend and then perhaps intensifying as it heads generally toward the Southeast U.S. next week. The European model has tended to favor a weaker track much further east, roughly similar to that of Erin. Ensembles from the GFS, Euro, and the Google Weather Lab have been leaning toward options that remain east of Florida, but with some ensemble members taking the system into the Gulf of Mexico.
Model guidance on this potential new system will likely remain fluid for days to come. The first hints of more clarity may arrive when the disturbance gains a coherent low-level center later this week – assuming it does. The National Hurricane Center is flagging no other systems of concern in the Atlantic basin over the coming week.
Jeff Masters contributed to this post.
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