Why Belgium is open to putting boots on the ground in Ukraine

Good morning. The US and Russia yesterday agreed to “lay the groundwork for future co-operation” on enhanced relations and ending the war in Ukraine, in a whiplash-inducing shift in global geopolitics that has sparked fears in Kyiv and Brussels of peace on Vladimir Putin’s terms.

Tonight, France’s Emmanuel Macron hosts a virtual meeting for European Nato leaders not invited to Monday’s physical gathering. Troop deployments to Ukraine and defence funding are on the agenda — two issues where extraordinary events are forcing significant shifts. Here, Belgium’s defence minister leans into boots on the ground, while Denmark’s EU minister opens up to more spending and joint EU debt.

Peace enforcement

As several big EU countries hesitate to commit to boots on the ground in Ukraine, a small member state is stepping up, write Laura Dubois and Barbara Moens.

Belgium’s defence minister Theo Francken told the Financial Times in an interview that he would be open to sending his troops to Ukraine — under certain conditions.

Context: EU leaders at the beginning of this week failed to provide a united answer to the US-Russia peace talks, which sidelined both Ukraine and Europe. While Britain and France were open to sending peacekeepers, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain expressed reluctance to the idea.

Francken said that while Belgium did not have the capacity to contribute thousands of troops, “when it’s necessary, we will always help our allies”.

“First of all, there needs to be a peace deal. And we’re not there yet . . . that’s going on in a very chaotic way,” Francken said, hinting at the US-Russia talks.

He added that “within the peace deal, there has to be an aspect where there’s an international law enforcement or peace enforcement, a coalition of troops”.

“When the framework is clear . . . when the rules of engagement are clear, then [sending troops] can be a possibility,” Francken said.

Francken, a Flemish politician of the right-wing nationalist NVA party, is part of a new government led by his party leader Bart De Wever, who has pledged to increase defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP by 2029 to meet the Nato target. Francken wants to reach that target sooner.

He said the Belgian army was expanding to 29,000 troops, and his priority was to get them combat ready. “We are not war hardened because there was no war really that we fought. The last was Afghanistan,” Francken said.

“That’s one of the biggest advantages [of] the Russian troops, Ukrainian troops, but also North Korean,” he said. “They will learn, adapt and get stronger.”

Chart du jour: Delayed

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said German trains are still better than those in England, where “nothing works any more”. An FT data analysis suggest he’s wrong.

Adaptation

The harsh realities of the war in Ukraine and impending US isolationism have convinced Denmark, one of Europe’s biggest misers, to consider higher EU spending, writes Paola Tamma.

“We need to focus our budget on what makes us stronger, what makes us wealthier,” Danish EU affairs minister Marie Bjerre told the FT.

Context: The European Commission will present a proposal for the bloc’s next long-term budget in July, kicking off years-long negotiations that will start under Copenhagen’s chairmanship of the EU Council in the latter half of this year.

Denmark is traditionally a member of the “frugal” group of northern countries that have resisted calls for increased EU spending or joint borrowing. But Copenhagen has recently changed its tune on common debt, and Bjerre said she was open to discussing a bigger EU budget.

“We are open-minded, and that’s actually the change,” said Bjerre. She said this was due to “a situation where we have to be able to defend ourselves and to react to the crisis Europe is facing”.

Copenhagen’s stance is significant, as it will lead the budget negotiations. Bjerre said she hoped that external pressure would help reach consensus among the 27 member states.

“There is a sense of urgency right now because of the war for Ukraine and also because we are now sliding back [economically] compared to the US,” she said.

Reforming the budget could also mean that traditional spending areas such as agricultural subsidies and funding for regions could come with greater strings attached, conditional on “bold reforms”, Bjerre said, adding that “new critical sectors that will enhance our competitiveness” might need to be prioritised.

As time is pressing, the commission is expected to already propose defence funding options in mid-March. “We have no luxury to wait until 2028 when it comes to funding defence,” EU budget commissioner Piotr Serafin said yesterday in Warsaw, referencing the start of the new budget period.

What to watch today

1. French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a virtual meeting of leaders on Ukraine and defence.

2. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosts Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Rome.

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