Why Ukraine’s peace plan is forcing a reckoning on EU enlargement

Good morning. A scoop to start: Brussels is drafting proposals to rewrite the rules of EU accession and create a contentious two-tier model that could fast-track Ukraine’s entry in any peace deal to end Russia’s invasion.

Here, I explain why — and why it’s unsettling existing EU members. And our Rome team preview today’s release of Italy’s rather timely new Arctic strategy.

Have a great weekend.

In or out?

Ukraine’s push for a peace deal to end Russia’s nearly four-year invasion is forcing a reckoning on an even longer-running political battle inside the EU: how and when to admit new countries.

Context: The EU has not added a member since Croatia’s 2013 accession. Nine countries are officially candidates to join. Following Russia’s invasion, Ukraine became one of those and Brussels changed its rhetoric making enlargement a geopolitical priority.

A 20-point peace plan being negotiated to end the war is set to now call the EU’s bluff. Drafts being discussed in US-led talks refer to Ukraine joining the EU in 2027: a central demand from Kyiv which knows it needs to sell membership to citizens as a trade-off for ceding territory. But given the scale of reforms required to meet the EU’s strict entry criteria, it’s an impossible deadline.

Rejecting the wildly ambitious timeline risks derailing the peace deal. But accepting it would make a mockery of the EU’s “merit-based” enlargement policy.

To square the circle, European Commission officials are discussing proposals that would overhaul the existing accession rules, agreed in 1993, and allow for quicker membership without the full benefits.

Proponents say it will make an outdated and cumbersome process more flexible and reflect geopolitical realities. Opponents say “enlargement lite” will create a two-tier membership and destabilise ongoing accession efforts by countries other than Ukraine.

Ideas being drafted inside the commission include membership with incremental access to parts of the EU’s single market or finance streams, and no veto power in meetings of ministers or leaders that decide the bloc’s policies.

Many EU capitals are unnerved by the ideas.

“Change the rules to suit Ukraine and you solve one problem by creating many more,” said one member state official. “Membership has to mean membership.”

Two other officials said appearing to neglect other accession candidates, such as the Western Balkan countries, could push them closer to countries such as Russia and China.

Diplomats say Montenegro and Albania would balk at being offered second-tier membership while others whose progress has flatlined due to limited reform momentum, such as Turkey or Bosnia, might jump at the chance of an easy way to claim a seat.

Chart du jour: Calmer

Oil prices tumbled yesterday as US-Iran tensions de-escalated and traders dialled back their bets on military action against one of the world’s major crude producers.

Arctic action

When it comes to safeguarding its strategic interests, Italy tends to look south across the Mediterranean. But with US President Donald Trump’s Greenland obsession, Rome is now turning its attention north, write Amy Kazmin and Giuliana Ricozzi.

Context: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has downplayed the prospects that Trump would use military force to seize Greenland. But she believes Washington’s Nato allies must increase their Arctic presence to reassure him that US interests there are secure, at a time of enhanced geostrategic competition.

Today, the Italian government is expected to unveil a new Arctic strategy, aiming to signal attention to Trump’s concerns.

“The Arctic is very much closer to us than geography suggests,” states the document seen by the FT. Rome pledges to “contribute to discussions on the region in an increasingly involved manner”, mainly by supporting “European Arctic actors responsible for the region’s governance”.

The strategy also notes that Italy has ongoing Arctic research programmes, and companies such as energy provider Eni and shipbuilder Fincantieri have economic interests in the region.

Most importantly, the policy notes that the Italian army is developing Arctic and sub-Arctic combat capability, and the Italian armed forces recently established a steering committee on the “Arctic, sub-Arctic and Antarctica”, reflecting the far north as “a region of growing interest”.

Rome will be hoping such assurances help sate Trump’s appetite for taking direct control of Greenland.

“The armed forces have been doing their homework. It’s not new but it’s a huge acceleration and a change of paradigm,” said Alessandro Marone, head of the defence programme at Rome’s Institute for International Affairs.

“If the Trump administration undertakes military action against Denmark because of Greenland that would be the end of Nato,” he added. “Italy wants to maintain Nato as strong and credible as possible, and avoid escalation.”

What to watch today

1. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council president António Costa travel to Brazil to meet President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of signing the Mercosur trade deal.

2. German foreign minister Johann Wadephul hosts his Austrian counterpart, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, in Berlin.

Now read these

• The next trade fight: The EU and Australia are engaged in last-minute haggling over food imports as they push to clinch a deal next month.

• Friends to enemies pipeline: France’s finance minister has warned about the economic fallout should the US invade Greenland.

• Wikipedia turns 25: Wikipedia may be the largest compendium of human knowledge ever created. Can it survive?