Zelenskyy aims for a ceasefire with Trump before discussing peace

Good morning. A (troubling) scoop to start: Germany’s recent election was subject to “clear” and “successful” manipulation by Russia and other foreign actors, the head of the Bundestag’s intelligence committee told the Financial Times.

Today, our Kyiv bureau chief previews Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House, and our technology correspondent hears a demand for the European Commission to keep calm and carry on in the face of US threats over digital regulation.

Have a good weekend.

Heavy metal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet US President Donald Trump in Washington today, seeking to finalise a contentious natural resources deal that could reshape Ukraine’s postwar economy and secure crucial military support, writes Christopher Miller.

Context: The meeting is the first between the two leaders since Zelenskyy visited Trump in New York City in September, ahead of the US election, and since the US last week began talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine, without involving Kyiv.

It’s a chance for Zelenskyy to see Trump in person before the US president meets Russian President Vladimir Putin, a meeting that Washington and Moscow have said is being planned.

Zelenskyy is pushing for firm US security commitments, but Trump on Wednesday said he was “not going to make security guarantees beyond very much . . . We’re going to have Europe do that”.

Those words are certain to be ringing in Zelenskyy’s head today, particularly as the minerals deal includes only vague references to security assurances.

Zelenskyy’s negotiators told the FT that they had fought tooth and nail about the joint development of Ukraine’s mineral resources just to get — as the Ukrainian president put it Wednesday — “at least one sentence mentioning [security] guarantees, and it is there”. But it’s squishy.

The deal would establish a US-Ukraine investment fund, with Ukraine allocating 50 percent of all revenues earned from the “future monetisation” of natural resources owned by the Ukrainian government.

While intended to support the country’s recovery, it leaves questions over ownership and revenue distribution. Trump has described it as “payback” for US aid, estimating it could generate $350bn for the US and $100bn for Europe.

Despite the uncertainties, the deal is seen by Zelenskyy as a necessary step towards ending the war on terms he hopes will be favourable to Kyiv, and is expected to be signed today.

But before the presidents can talk peace, they may need to agree on a ceasefire in their own war of words. Shots were first fired when Trump last week called the Ukrainian president a “dictator without elections” and falsely blamed him for starting the war. Zelenskyy responded by saying that Trump was living in a Russian “disinformation bubble”.

Their meeting could determine Ukraine’s future. But first, they may need to decide if they can even find common ground.

Chart du jour: War rumblings

Carmakers led a decline in European stocks yesterday, after US President Donald Trump threatened to hit EU goods with 25 per cent tariffs.

Beat the bully

Researchers argue that the EU should double down on regulating Big Tech rather than caving to the tariff threats coming from Washington, writes Barbara Moens.

Context: US President Donald Trump is considering imposing tariffs on countries that levy digital services taxes on American companies, just as Brussels’ investigations into tech giants including Apple and Meta for possibly breaching EU digital market rules come to a head next month.

Big Tech companies have been lobbying against the EU’s digital rules and been emboldened by the US administration’s backing.

Giving in to Big Tech in fear of retaliation from Trump “will only result in further interference and bullying”, argue the European Policy Centre, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and Open Markets Institute in a joint paper published today and previewed by the FT. 

“It will also likely embolden these same corporations, further fuelling the polarisation that is causing irreversible damage to Europe’s democracy and core values,” the authors wrote. “The message must be clear: Europe’s digital sovereignty is not for sale, at any price.”

Instead, Brussels should step up when it comes to European digital sovereignty, not just by enforcing its digital rule book but also by considering bolder measures, such as more antitrust action, banning certain services or even using powers to force corporate break-ups.

It could also use its so-called anti-coercion instrument if Trump made good on his threats, which would allow hitting Silicon Valley with retaliatory trade measures and restricting trade in services — something the European Commission is already considering. 

What to watch today

1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets US President Donald Trump in Washington.

2. US state secretary Marco Rubio hosts Greek foreign minister George Gerapetritis.

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