Why EU countries still can’t agree on a 2040 climate target

Good morning. A scoop to start: The Budapest summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was cancelled by the US after Moscow sent out a memo outlining hardline demands for ending the Ukraine war — including eliminating what it calls the “root causes” of the conflict, according to people familiar with the matter.

Today, our climate correspondent previews “tricky” discussions on the EU’s 2040 carbon emissions goal. And our Rome reporter delves into Italian premier Giorgia Meloni’s controversial justice reform.

Have a great weekend.

Countdown

EU ambassadors will discuss the EU’s next economy-defining climate target today, but diplomats have warned that any agreement is on a knife-edge with member states pushing back against Brussels’ ambition, writes Alice Hancock.

Context: Last February, the European Commission said the EU should emit 90 per cent less greenhouse gas by 2040, a waymarker between the target of reducing emissions by 55 per cent in 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050. The EU is seen as a global climate leader, and the outcome of its negotiations will set the tone ahead of the UN’s annual COP climate conference next month.

EU countries have, however, pushed back against the 2040 target citing economic pressure, industry woes and a tough geopolitical context. The EU must approve a target that it can present to the UN ahead of COP, which starts on November 10.

EU leaders debated the issue last week and agreed to build in a review clause, meaning that the 90 per cent reduction could be revised at a later stage. Member states will also have greater leeway if certain sectors, such as heavy industry, fail to meet the goals.

With these conditions, a more ambitious group of member states is forming, including Spain and the Nordics, that may be enough to push an agreement over the line.

As ever, France and Germany hold the swing vote. French President Emmanuel Macron wants 5 per cent of the target to be made up of international carbon credits — in effect, allowing the EU to pay for decarbonisation abroad that would count towards the target at home.

The German government in its coalition agreement has committed to a 90 per cent target with only 3 per cent made up from international carbon credits. If Berlin can step away from that, an agreement may be reached, diplomats said.

But so far, it looks like Germany will stay firm. “Germany supports a climate target of 90 per cent by 2040, as agreed in the coalition treaty and under the known conditions,” environment minister Carsten Schneider said.

Ambassadors will thrash out as much as possible of a deal today, but crunch time comes when ministers meet on Tuesday.

Diplomats have variously said that discussions will be “tricky” and the balance is “delicate”. One senior EU diplomat voiced concern that the 90 per cent figure itself might not emerge “unscathed”.

“The dynamic seems to change hour by hour,” said another diplomat.

Chart du jour: Resurgence

Rob Jetten is tipped to become the Netherlands’ next prime minister, after his D66 party performed better than expected in Dutch parliamentary elections on Wednesday. The centrist comeback is also raising hopes in other European countries, even as the far right remains a disruptive force.

Rechecking and rebalancing

The Italian parliament yesterday gave its final approval to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s controversial overhaul of the country’s judicial system, paving the way for a national referendum next year, writes Giuliana Ricozzi.

Context: Judicial reform has been a longtime goal of Meloni’s rightwing coalition. Meloni has clashed multiple times with judges who vetoed some of her flagship projects, including the construction of a bridge linking Sicily to the mainland and plans to deport migrants to Albania. 

The reform would establish two distinct career paths and supervisory bodies for prosecutors and judges, which are now part of a single cadre and can switch roles.

Meloni’s government says the reform will ensure fairer trials and counter the politicisation of the judiciary. She hailed the vote as “an important step towards a more efficient, balanced, and citizen-friendly system . . . Now the citizens will have their say’’. 

However, opposition parties and many magistrates are up in arms and warn the overhaul could lead to greater government control over prosecutors without solving the real problems of the legal system. 

The Italian National Association of Magistrates said that the reform “threatens the balance of power established by our Constitution” and “takes away citizens’ rights”. Opposition leader Elly Schlein called it “an attempt by Giorgia Meloni’s right[wing party] to get its hands on judges”. 

The reforms come as Italians are growing increasingly frustrated amid case delays and prominent investigations that end up with sensational dismissals or acquittals.  

What to watch today

1. Second day of G7 energy and environment ministers’ meeting in Toronto.

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