Polish government plays down nationalist election win ahead of no-confidence vote

Good morning. Today, Laura reports from Poland where the ruling party is bullish ahead of a no-confidence vote despite losing this month’s presidential election. And our Paris bureau chief sends a dispatch from a gathering of the EU’s nationalist right.

Keep calm and carry on

Ministers of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European government have played down the consequences of the election of nationalist Karol Nawrocki as their president, ahead of Tusk’s crucial no-confidence vote tomorrow, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: this month, Nawrocki, a newcomer standing for the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, defeated Rafał Trzaskowski, who represented Tusk’s Civic Platform. Tusk then called a confidence vote to strengthen support for his coalition.

The Polish parliament is due to debate the issue today, ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

Foreign minister Radosław Sikorski told journalists in Warsaw yesterday that there was “absolutely no chance” that Tusk’s government would fall. “I’m confident that the confidence vote will be overwhelmingly for the government,” he said.

Sikorski also indicated that Nawrocki could even be an asset to his government — both in dealing with US President Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has opposed further EU support to Ukraine.

“The presidency continues in the hands of the opposition. They claim to have better relations with the White House,” Sikorski said. “So we can play on two pianos at the same time . . . the more ideological links with the Republican party, and the more state-to-state links by the government.”

At the same time, he said Nawrocki “is not a foreign policy specialist”, but offered to help: “He needs to find his bearings. We need to brief him, and we will.”

He also said that Nawrocki was likely to share the government’s pro-defence stance and “clearly agrees with the national consensus that Russia has to be deterred”. 

Sikorski also said that he would be “very pleased” if Nawrocki could persuade Orbán to lift his vetoes on Ukrainian accession.

In an interview with Hungarian outlet Mandiner, Nawrocki has said he will indeed seek closer ties with Orbán, and that he shares some of his views: “At the moment, I am against Ukraine’s entry into the European Union.”

His win also raises concerns that the nationalist PiS, which has held the presidency for the past decade, could continue vetoing Tusk’s crucial judicial reforms.

Brussels last year unblocked €137bn frozen over rule of law concerns, after Tusk set out a plan to strengthen judicial independence. While some administrative changes have been made, the main reforms still need to be signed into law.

Poland’s Europe minister Adam Szłapka insisted his government had made “real changes” despite the previous president’s veto, and would continue working on the reforms. “We cannot say directly that there will be some vetoes. We are working as a government,” Szłapka said.

Chart du jour: Not-so-great expectations

Nearly one in five people do not expect to have the number of children they desire, according to a UN study. Click here for the full interactive chart.

Reunion

The village of Mormant-sur-Vernisson, population 133, may seem a strange place for a political rally, but it is where French far-right leader Marine Le Pen convened her EU allies yesterday, writes Leila Abboud.

Context: Attended by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Matteo Salvini, the event marked the anniversary of the far right’s strong progress in the 2024 European elections that led to the creation of the Patriots for Europe group in the EU parliament.

Le Pen used the occasion to slam the EU as “a mercantile, woke, ultra-capitalist empire” that “imposes and oppresses” sovereign nations.

Orbán followed, saying: “What is happening is an organised shift in populations to replace our shared European culture.”

The fevered speeches before a modest-sized crowd were slightly out of step with the reality in Brussels. While the Patriots grew after attracting new members such as Orbán’s Fidesz party and Spain’s Vox, it remains isolated because of the cordon sanitaire that other parties use to sideline the group.

In contrast in France, Le Pen’s Rassemblement National has worn down political rivals to move into the mainstream, and consistently polls as the most popular party.

But RN’s strong run came to a crashing halt in March when a court convicted Le Pen of embezzling EU funds and sentenced her to an immediate ban on standing for office. This would exclude her from the 2027 presidential race in which she is a frontrunner, although she is appealing.

Doubts are swirling over whether her number two, the 29-year old Jordan Bardella, should replace her.

“The wind is shifting across Europe,” said Bardella at the rally.

What to watch today

1. EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas and Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar hold first EU-India strategic dialogue.

2. Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof visits German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin.

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