MANILA – The new Trump administration is off to a muscular start with its “peace through strength” strategy, a policy flex expressed in a series of key appointments and meetings that has already impressed top allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Barely hours into his new office, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a bilateral meeting with India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar to underscore the centrality of Asia in Trump’s foreign policy.
Rubio also held a phone conversation with his Filipino counterpart in which he reiterated America’s “ironclad” commitment to defend its Southeast Asian mutual defense treaty ally in the event of armed conflict with China in the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr personally met new US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz to reaffirm the “enduring alliance between the Philippines and the United States.”
Just days into office, the new Trump administration also convened the latest iteration of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the “Quad”, which brought together top diplomats from Australia, Japan, India and the US.
In a joint statement, Rubio and his Quad counterparts underscored their “shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended.”
In a thinly veiled criticism of revisionist powers, most notably China, the Quad ministers made it clear that they “strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion.”
Meanwhile, newly inaugurated President Trump signaled a more pragmatic approach in his second term by firing and lambasting Iran hawks while elevating pragmatists such as Michael DiMino as the Pentagon’s new top Middle East official.
Coupled with Trump’s call for ending the “ridiculous war” in Ukraine and growing pressure on European allies to shoulder their own defense burdens, recent key appointments will strengthen the voice of so-called “prioritizers” led by Elbridge Colby, a nominee for under-secretary of defense for policy who has emphasized the need for a more China-focused US foreign policy.
By reorienting America’s strategic focus from old theaters in Europe and the Middle East, the second Trump administration is seemingly set to double down on its defense alliance and deterrence strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
In his inauguration address, Trump set the tone for his foreign policy by emphasizing his commitment to end wars around the world. “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be – a peacemaker and a unifier,” he declared, directly taking credit for the newly implemented ceasefire in Gaza, which was largely negotiated by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
“Like in 2017, we will again build the strongest military the world has ever seen. We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and, perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into,” he added, echoing his administration’s “peace through strength” mantra.
Trump has signaled a more pragmatic approach to adversaries, most notably Iran. Just hours into his second term, he fired his former Iran envoy, Brian Hook, a proponent of a “maximum pressure” campaign against the Middle Eastern power who oversaw the recent transition at the Department of State.
Meanwhile, Trump also publicly attacked his former national security adviser, John Bolton, as a “warmonger” who oversaw disastrous interventions in the Middle East. Both Bolton and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who had advocated for confrontation with Iran, were also stripped off their security profiles.
Trump’s Middle East policy will thus be driven by more pragmatic voices. Following his successful negotiation of the Gaza ceasefire, Witkoff has been appointed as Trump’s new Iran envoy.
“He’s certainly someone I would use. He’s done a fantastic job . . . Steve has a wonderful way about him,” Trump said about his new Iran envoy and prospects for a new nuclear deal with Iran. “It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step [of military confrontation]…Iran, hopefully, will make a deal.”
Witkoff’s regional diplomacy will be complemented by the Pentagon’s new Middle East top official Michael DiMino, who is known for his more critical stance on Israel and advocacy for a more “offshore balancing” strategy in the Middle East.
“There are no vital or existential U.S. interests in the [Middle East] region,” DiMino argued last year in a webinar, underscoring the need for a major reorientation in American foreign policy. “We’re really there to counter Iran, and that’s really at the behest of the Israelis and the Saudis,” he added, advocating instead for a more limited American military presence in an increasingly multipolar region.
That viewpoint tracks with the Pentagon’s incoming top policy official, Elbridge Colby, an influential strategic thinker who oversaw the formulation of the first Trump administration’s National Security Strategy.
“We need to prioritize the potential for a conflict with China precisely in order to avoid it,” Colby argued in a major conference last October. “I think it’s empirically true that China is preparing for war, and we do have the possibility of a multi-front war and the possibility of a World War III in the coming years, and we’re not prepared.”
Similar to DiMino, Colby has also drawn on his own bitter experience in dealing with the Middle East, especially when he served as part of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq in 2003 as well as on the 2004-2005 President’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission under the George W Bush administration.
While adopting more traditionally hawkish views on Iran, Trump’s other top cabinet officials have also expressed openness to a less confrontational policy in the Middle East in favor of focusing on the broader Indo-Pacific region, particularly China.
During his confirmation hearing, Rubio made it clear that he would support “any arrangement that allows us to have safety and stability in the region but one in which we’re clear-eyed” about threats posed by adversaries such as Iran. The more pragmatic tone on Iran, coupled with a concerted push to end the conflict in Ukraine, underscores China’s centrality to the second Trump administration’s grand strategy.
Rubio has characterized China as “the most potent, dangerous and near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted”, thus the urgency of doubling down the Quad and existing military alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Though also known as an Iran hawk, National Security Adviser Waltz has also emphasized the need for America to “quickly wind up the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to free up military assets to confront and deter China.”
Trump’s defense secretary nominee, Pete Hagseth, who, similar to Waltz, also served in America’s wars in the Middle East, has argued along similar lines and has criticized the outgoing Biden administration for not sufficiently decoupling from conflicts in the Middle East in favor of a China-centered strategy.
By and large, America’s top Asian allies seem optimistic about the second Trump administration’s signaled direction. Ahead of her meeting with Rubio, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong characterized bilateral ties with Washington as “our most important strategic relationship.”
“It’s a demonstration of the collective commitment of all countries to the Quad, an ironclad commitment in this time where close cooperation in the Indo-Pacific is so important,” she told reporters on the eve of the first Quad meeting just hours into the new administration.
Japan’s top diplomat was even more effusive about the new administration’s nuanced approach to foreign policy and sound pragmatism.
“I was very impressed that [Rubio’s] explanation of the Quad didn’t mention China by name and antagonize it. I had thought of him as a hard-liner against China, but as we talked, I found he was a well-balanced individual,” Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya said after the Quad meeting this week.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @RichHeydarian
