We need the rain, as much as we can get.
Washington was slumped in a drought even before the summer began. The rain that began falling early Friday was a welcome sight, but it won’t be enough to undo much of the damage already done.
Coming after one of the driest Julys on record, the state’s soils will remain parched and reservoirs below their normal levels, despite the soaking, according to state officials and hydrologists. The moisture might tamp down the wildfire burning on the Olympic Peninsula, but only for a while.
No place in Washington is safe from the dry spell. There are only different shades of severity spanning abnormally dry territory to the severe and extreme drought conditions plaguing more than three-quarters of the state.
The Seattle area is running about a 9-inch rain deficit so far this water year (which begins Oct. 1), said Brent Bower, a senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service. Last month was one of the driest on record across the state.
More than 1 inch of rain is possible Friday and Saturday, but making up the entire difference in the next month and a half would be nearly impossible, Bower said.
The rainfall is nowhere near enough to overcome the long-standing deficit, state climatologist Guillaume Mauger said in a text.
What we’re seeing are the compounded effects of drought over the past three years, each of which have been warmer and drier than normal, said Caroline Mellor, a drought coordinator with Washington’s Department of Ecology.
Not only do drought conditions mean poor water supply for cities and farms across the state but also dangerously low (and warmer) water levels for fish and other wildlife, and increased wildfire danger. Communities have seen water restrictions and increased utility rates because of low snowpack and ongoing drought.
Mellor and others have warned global warming will mean Washington can expect what’s called a snowpack drought for about four winters in every coming decade.
Poor snowpack and early melt-offs start off springs and summers on a dry note, only to be made worse by hot and dry summers, Mellor said. The bar for droughts was set by the one in 2015, but never in modern history has Washington seen three drought years in a row like we have now, she said.
Whatever rainfall the state does see over the weekend will quickly be absorbed by the parched soils, and little of that water, if any, will trickle into the rivers and streams that badly need the moisture, Mellor said.
For evidence, consider Keechelus Lake just over Snoqualmie Pass, she said. That reservoir and two others within the Yakima River Basin — Cle Elum and Kachess lakes — hit their lowest levels on record this year.
Even when the autumn rains arrive, there’s so much lost ground to make up that the state would need a much wetter and colder winter than normal to compensate, Mellor said.
Portions of the Olympic Peninsula are expected to see perhaps as much as an inch and a half of rain through the weekend, which should slow the spread of the Bear Gulch fire burning in Mason County, but it won’t stop the flames.
As of Friday morning, the wildfire has burned more than 8,200 acres and continues to grow deeper into the rugged territory of Olympic National Park. The rainfall also heightens concerns of floods or debris flows across the fire’s burn area, which now has fewer trees and foliage to capture the falling moisture, crews said in a release.
The wildfire will likely continue to burn through the weeks ahead.
Seattle Times climate reporter Isabella Breda contributed to this report.
