The election to decide Gov. Gavin Newsom’s future as the leader of California is less than two weeks away.
For only the second time in the state’s history, voters will cast ballots on whether to oust the governor before his term ends. The 2021 Gubernatorial Recall Election is set for Tuesday, Sept. 14, and those who were already registered to vote should have already received mail-in ballots.
But since recalls aren’t common affairs, voters are sure to have questions. Here are some answers.
When is the deadline to vote?
Vote Centers on Election Day, Sept. 14, will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Some of those centers have already opened and pre-Election Day hours vary by location.
You can vote or drop of your vote-by-mail ballot at any Vote Center within the county in which you live. You can also drop your VBM off at secure drop boxes. You can find Vote Center or drop box locations on your respective county registrar websites. The ballot that was mailed to you should also list the closest Vote Center to your home.
Can I mail my ballot on Sept. 14 and still have it count?
As long as it gets postmarked by that day — and arrives within the week.
Ballots must arrive at the county registrar offices by Sept. 21 and be postmarked by Election Day to be valid. Kind of like your taxes.
What if I’m not registered to vote yet?
The deadline to register for a mail-in-ballot has already passed.
But that doesn’t mean you can’t vote. You’ll just have to do it in person. Vote Centers will allow same day, in-person registration — and then you can vote.
But what exactly are we voting on?
Ballots will have two questions, and voters can weigh in on either — or both.
The first is a yes-or-no question: Do you think Newsom, a San Francisco Democrat elected to lead the state in 2018, should be removed from office before his term ends next year.
The second question will be more familiar to voters: If Newsom is removed, who should replace him?
If more than 50% of voters say Newsom should be removed, the candidate with the most votes on the second question will become the new governor.
How many people are vying to replace Newsom?
In short: A lot.
The longer answer is that 46 names will appear on the ballot for that second question — Newsom’s won’t — with 24 of those Republicans. Nine are listed as Democrats, with the rest not affiliated with the two major parties. The ballot has pastors and professors, former mayors and business owners, actors and talk show hosts.
But don’t worry. There are at least a names that will likely be familiar to you.
The most famous person on the list — though one doing poorly in the polls — is reality television star Caitlyn Jenner.
Those in San Diego will likely recognize their former mayor, Kevin Faulconer. Republican businessman John Cox has also been on ballots before: He finished in the top two during the 2018 gubernatorial primary, advancing to the general election that November — where Newsom blew him out.
But the man leading the polls is Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio show host.
About a quarter of likely voters supported him over the other candidates in a statewide survey the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California conducted from Aug. 20 to Aug. 29. Faulconer had 5% and Cox tied with State Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, a Republican from the Sacramento area.
Campaign contributions seem to support Elder’s place atop the polls.
He brought in more than $8.5 million from Aug. 1 to Aug. 28, and finished that reporting period with about $4.7 million in cash on hand, according to the California Secretary of State’s website. Cox had the second-highest dollar amount brought in this month, at $1.6 million — but ended the period with nearly $140,000 on hand.
So Elder is the frontrunner?
That depends on your definition.
If Newsom gets recalled, then yes, it seems that way.
But there are a few telling things from the PPIC survey. While 26% of likely voters surveyed supported Elder, another 25% said they didn’t back any of them or wouldn’t vote for a candidate.
And 58% of likely voters in that survey said they didn’t support removing Newsom.
Remember: If 50% of voters select “no” for the first question, the second becomes moot.
And as for that $8.5 million in contributions Elder raised last reporting period? Newsom’s committee to prevent his recall more than doubled that — with nearly $20 million raised from Aug. 1 to Aug. 28.
And recalls are rare in California?
Successful ones, yes.
There have been 179 attempted recall attempts of statewide elected officials in California since 1913, 55 of those against governors. But, according to the Secretary of State’s website, only 11 — or 6% — have qualified for the ballots, including the one seeking to remove Newsom.
But the odds of an elected official become far more even when looking that the results of recall elections, though it’s an admittedly small sample size.
Of the 10 previous recall elections, six of them — or 60% — resulted in an official being removed. And that includes the only other gubernatorial recall, when voters ousted Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and installed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger 2003.
So what does all this mean?
That Newsom’s fate could very well hinge on voter turnout.
Democrats have long outnumbered Republicans in California — and that remains true as the recall election nears.
The Secretary of State’s 60-day registration report showed more than 22 million Californians were registered to vote, and 46.5% are registered as Democrats compared to 24.1% for Republicans.
The total number of voters and the share of those registered as Democrats has increased since the 2003 recall, according to Secretary of State voting records, while the share of Republicans has decreased. In August 2003, 60 days out from that recall election, 44% of registered voters were Democrats and 35% were Republicans.
But interestingly enough, the share of those without a party preference had the largest increase, from about 16% to 23%.
Still, if the state’s voter turnout his high, Newsom should have the advantage in remaining governor.
When Newsom was first elected governor in 2018, 64.5% of registered voters cast ballots. that was the highest voter turnout for a gubernatorial election in more than three decades.
Interestingly enough, during that span only two other gubernatorial elections topped 60% turnout among registered voters: 1994, when Republican Gov. Pete Wilson won reelection — and the 2003 recall.