The US may seek peace in Ukraine to save resources, convince Russia to break with Beijing, focus on China and avoid escalation. But for Russia, this war is a new Afghanistan. (In the 1980s, the USSR collapsed due to the military effort.). With an economy valued at only a small fraction of the US and EU economies combined, war is a financial bloodbath for Moscow – whereas it’s marginally significant for Washington or Brussels.
China either helps Russia (and bankrupts itself, too) or takes advantage of Russia, thereby increasing tensions with Russia. Either choice is unpleasant. Russians would hate the Chinese profiting from a war that hollows them.
Therefore, if the US wants to focus on China, there is no need to look at the other side of the Eurasian continent; it’s already happening. The war in Ukraine keeps Beijing on tenterhooks; without Ukraine, and without a break with Russia (unlikely to happen), China relaxes. Escalation is a risk, but hastening to close the war doesn’t prevent it; it exacerbates the problem by showing possible weaknesses or pressure points.
Moreover, Ukrainians and Europeans don’t want to end the war like this. To rush it means solving a Russian problem and opening bigger Ukrainian and European troubles. The USA loses on every side of the deal. It would be worth it if Russia or China wanted to negotiate, and if Ukrainians and the EU were pushing to give up. But they aren’t.
For President Donald Trump, the way out can be clear; he can say the truth: that Russia isn’t earnest in its negotiations, that the shock has been helpful to push the EU on a fast rearmament track, and that he’s willing to compromise if others are willing, too.
The truth, practically
In a famous essay, philosopher of war Edward Luttwak eloquently argued: “An unpleasant truth often overlooked is that although war is a great evil, it does have a great virtue: It can resolve political conflicts and lead to peace. This can happen when all belligerents become exhausted or when one wins decisively. Either way, the key is that the fighting must continue until a resolution is reached. War brings peace only after passing a culminating phase of violence. Hopes of military success must fade for accommodation to become more attractive than further combat.”
To end the war is also a moral imperative, and not only the Church but everybody should pray for it. Surely, Ukraine and Europe want to end the war, but “how to end it” can make a difference, especially at this stage.
Ukraine wants peace but with guarantees that Russia won’t come back stronger than ever in five or ten years than ever. Russia may not want peace —it wants something it can boast of as a victory.
We haven’t reached the “culminating phase of violence.” There aren’t signs of an early settlement unless the US forces pushes the side it supports to give up. It can coax it, nudge it, but if the push is too hard, it can backfire to no good end. Meanwhile, as we saw, there may be upsides for the US if the war continues.
The EU should carry its responsibility for the costs of war; Trump is right. And the US can lend all its moral support to the EU and Ukraine. But, switching off security systems without sufficient discussions with allies and without being able to put them in line opens the can of worms we see today: Europeans want a defense apparatus unhooked from Washington.
From that, the possibility of a European political union and an army deployed against the other side of the Atlantic becomes not incredible. It’s not just the EU; the UK, Turkey, and even Canada are warming to the idea. This train is leaving the station. America should rush to stop it.
In the medium and long term, it is a much bigger trouble than even the collapse of Russia or an escalation. It could lead to the creation of an actual new political gravity center challenging the present international order. Some in China have been playing for decades with the idea of having Europe as an independent pole against the US. It might be happening now.
Perhaps it’s time to take a breath and consider a change of course. Or, better, let events follow their natural course without pushing too hard. As Taoists would say 顺其自然, follow things as they are. Besides, if America takes a step back and regroups with its allies, Russia could start reconsidering and rethinking its approach.
Francesco Sisci is director of Appia Institute, which originally published this article. It is republished with permission.
