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Major stocks indexes sank in Asia on Wednesday after President Donald Trump’s eye-watering 104 per cent tariffs on China took effect, while a savage selloff in Treasuries sparked fears foreign funds were fleeing US assets.
The US dollar fell against safe-haven currencies, but the onshore yuan hovered just above the lowest level since late 2007 as Beijing allowed the currency to depreciate further amid the sharp escalation in the trade war with US.
Assets that were spared recession fears
Few assets were spared the recession fears engulfing markets, with oil prices diving almost 4 per cent.
The pain is likely to spread to Europe too, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures pointing to a 3.7 per cent drop upon open. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.6 per cent.
Read-Dubai, Abu Dhabi stock markets fall amid global sell-off
Overnight, Washington confirmed 104 per cent duties on imports from China would take effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time (0401 GMT), as planned. That deadline passed without new developments on trade.
US-China war
“US and China are stuck in an unprecedented, and expensive, game of chicken, and it seems that both sides are unwilling to back down,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.
“Given the extraordinarily fluid situation, it is impossible to reasonably estimate the impact of the ongoing US-China trade war on China’s economy.”
The shifting headlines on tariffs and the spectre of a prolonged trade war between the world’s two biggest economies sparked sharp volatility in financial markets.
The S&P 500 was swept up in one of the biggest reversals in at least the last 50 years, with the benchmark index losing 4.2 percentage points from a positive start to a negative finish. The index has lost $5.8n in stock market value, the deepest four-day loss since it was created in the 1950s.
What is China doing to protect against tariffs?
Late on Tuesday, Trump said China was manipulating currency to protect against tariffs, but he thought China would make a deal at some point.
China’s blue chips reversed earlier losses to rise 0.3% likely underpinned by continued support from Beijing. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index .HSI fell 1.6 per cent.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.9 per cent.
Other stock markets in Asia were also deep in the red. Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 3.6 per cent, after rallying 6 per cent on Wednesday on hopes that Tokyo may get some trade deal with the US. Taiwanese stocks also fell 4.6 per cent even though the government activated a $15bn stabilisation fund.
US tariffs on China: Are they pushing global economy into recession?
Analysts at JPMorgan believed the rapid escalation with US tariffs on China were disruptive enough to push the global economy into recession.
“Given the import bill from China, the China tariff alone amounts to a whopping $400bn tax hike on US households and businesses,” they said in a note to clients. “The currency is likely to be a release valve for China policymakers.”
The People’s Bank of China on Wednesday set its guidance for the yuan at 7.2066 per dollar, the weakest level since September 2023. That pushed the onshore yuan down to 7.3499 per dollar, just a tad stronger than the 7.3510 level which is the weakest since late 2007.
In the Treasuries, the benchmark 10-year yield rose 24 basis points to 4.501 per cent, an unusual move in the Asia time zone, which brought the total rise over the past three days to a whopping 51 bps.
The 30-year yield surged 28 bps tp 5.023 per cent, the highest since late 2023
Currency markets
In currency markets, safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc found some more love, with the dollar skidding 0.8 per cent to 145.10 yen and down 0.5 per cent to 0.8430 Swiss franc.
Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3.5 per cent, and opened the door for potentially bigger cuts as it warned about downside risks to the economy from global trade barriers.
Oil prices dived almost 4 per cent on Wednesday on concerns about demand from China. Brent futures plunged 3.7 per cent to $60.50 a barrel, while US crude futures also tumbled 4.1 per cent to $57.16 per barrel.
Gold regained its upward momentum and was last up 0.7 at $3,005 per ounce.
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