Half Earth’s Glaciers to Vanish Even with Climate Goals Met todayheadline

Earth’s glaciers face a grim future even if nations meet their most ambitious climate targets, with new research revealing that limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would still trigger the loss of nearly half of all glacier mass outside Antarctica and Greenland.

The comprehensive study, published in Science, used eight advanced glacier models to simulate what happens when glaciers reach equilibrium with various constant temperature scenarios over thousands of years. Unlike previous research that only projected changes through 2100, this analysis reveals the full extent of committed ice loss.

The Stark Numbers

Under the Paris Agreement’s most optimistic 1.5°C warming target, glaciers globally would eventually lose 47% of their mass relative to 2020 levels. If warming reaches 2.7°C—the trajectory under current climate policies—that loss jumps to 76%.

“This is the whole point: When you stop climate change, glaciers don’t stop losing mass,” explained Professor Regine Hock of the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, a co-author of the study. “Glaciers have a memory. They continue losing mass for tens, hundreds or even thousands of years until they retreat to high elevations where it’s colder.”

The research team of 21 scientists from 10 countries analyzed more than 200,000 glaciers worldwide, revealing a critical insight often overlooked: glaciers respond slowly to climate changes, meaning today’s ice formations are already severely out of balance with current temperatures.

Regional Variations Tell Different Stories

The study uncovered dramatic regional differences in glacier vulnerability. Arctic Canada South faces the most severe outlook, projected to lose 85% of its mass even under current conditions. Western Canada and the US would lose 74%, while regions like South Asia West show more resilience at just 5% loss.

Alaska, containing the world’s third-largest glacier mass at over 16,000 gigatons, would lose 41% under the 1.5°C scenario but 69% under current policy trajectories. The ice would take approximately 330 years to reach equilibrium under Paris Agreement targets.

What determines a region’s vulnerability? The research identified glacier elevation range as the key factor. Mountains with glaciers spanning wide elevation ranges—like the Himalayas—offer retreat routes to higher, colder elevations. Flat, low-lying glacier regions have nowhere to hide from warming temperatures.

The Time Factor Changes Everything

Perhaps most striking is the vast difference in response times across regions. Some glaciers in tropical mountains adjust within decades, while massive ice formations in polar regions require centuries or millennia to reach their new equilibrium state.

The Subantarctic and Antarctic Islands need more than 800 years for 80% of committed mass loss to occur. This slow response explains why many polar regions that appear stable today are actually committed to dramatic future changes—they simply haven’t had time to respond to warming that’s already occurred.

Co-lead author Harry Zekollari from Belgium’s Vrije Universiteit Brussel emphasized the urgency: “Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters. The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved.”

Beyond the Headlines

The research reveals a troubling amplification effect often missed in climate discussions. Over glacier-covered areas, air temperatures increase 80% more than the global average—regardless of the warming scenario. This means a world that warms 2°C globally experiences 3.6°C warming where most glaciers exist.

The study also found that regions currently showing the smallest changes are actually the most sensitive to future temperature increases. South Asia West, Central Asia, and New Zealand—relatively stable now—would experience the steepest acceleration in ice loss with additional warming.

Sea Level and Beyond

The glacier mass loss translates to substantial sea level rise: 138 millimeters under 1.5°C warming, jumping to 230 millimeters under current policy pledges. But the impacts extend far beyond coastlines.

Glacier loss affects water supplies for billions of people, alters biodiversity and ecosystems, increases natural hazards like flooding and landslides, and devastates tourism economies dependent on mountain landscapes.

Co-lead author Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck put the current situation in stark perspective: “Glaciers are good indicators of climate change because their retreat allows us to see with our own eyes how climate is changing. However, since they adjust over longer timescales, their current size vastly understates the magnitude of climate change that has already happened.”

A Millennium of Consequences

The research timeline extends far beyond typical policy discussions. Even under the most optimistic Paris Agreement scenario, approximately 1,000 years would pass before glaciers fully equilibrate with the new climate—a sobering reminder that today’s emission choices commit future generations to centuries of ice loss.

This research emerges during the United Nations International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation, highlighting what the authors call “the pivotal role of climate policies in preserving our glaciers.” The message is clear: while some glacier loss is now inevitable, the difference between moderate and catastrophic outcomes depends entirely on how quickly the world acts to limit warming.