Some 5,000 natural deaths were counted as war fatalities, methodology too erratic to be trusted
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A rigorous analysis published on Saturday of Hamas authorities’ death statistics in Gaza shows they were vastly inflated and methodologically flawed.
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The report by the London-based Henry Jackson Society security think tank breaks down the figure of about 44,000 deaths since Oct. 7, 2023, that the Hamas-controlled health ministry in Gaza has published, and which international media have reported without scrutiny.
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The scale of civilian deaths in Gaza is a key element in a legal and propaganda push attempt by Israel’s enemies to isolate it internationally using false allegations of genocide.
The figure, which does not distinguish between civilians and the 17,000 terrorists Israel says it has killed in Gaza, also includes about 5,000 people who die of natural causes each year, states the report.
“This report raises serious concerns that the Gaza MoH figures have been overstated,” wrote Andrew Fox, an analyst who specializes in defense, the Middle East and disinformation, who wrote the report for the Henry Jackson Society.
The report was reported on Saturday in mainstream media, including the New York Post and The Telegraph, whose article the Israel Foreign Ministry reposted on X.
‘Questionable Counting’
“The data behind their figures contains natural deaths, deaths from before this conflict began and deaths of those killed by Hamas itself; it contains no mention of Hamas combatant fatalities; and it overstates the number of women and children killed,” reads the report, titled “Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza.”
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Some cancer patients were listed as requiring treatment after they had already been listed as war causalities. Jihad Mahmoud Adeeb Al-Taweel, ID number 950130153, was described in an April 15 list as a patient with laryngeal cancer, two weeks after being listed as a war fatality.
The report outlined additional statistical inconsistencies in the data collection process, including in the hospitals that reported it to the health ministry.
A “dramatic change happened in reports from al-Aqsa hospital [in Deir al-Balah], where the claimed number of fatalities jumped from 4,994, as per the 31 March 2024 report, to 6,608 just a week later. At the same time, the number of children jumped from 1,294 to 2,142, meaning children were responsible for 52.5% of the sharp increase,” the report said.
In a Dec. 10 article about the latest death statistics by the health ministry in Gaza, The Palestine Chronicle reported that “Palestinian and international organizations say that the majority of those killed and wounded are women and children”—a claim that anti-Israel activists often cite to promote the genocide charge against the Jewish state.
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But Fox’s report found that “most fatalities are men aged 15–45, contradicting claims that civilian populations are being disproportionately targeted.” Deaths reported by families, as opposed to how they are listed by the health ministry, “suggests that many fatalities classified as civilian may be combatants, a distinction omitted from official reporting,” the Fox report states.
On Dec. 10, Hamas’s Government Media Office wrote that nearly 44% of 44,758 reported fatalities in the Gaza Strip were children. The report disputes this data, showing cases of adults being listed as children. The document also shows that the Government Media Office, which says its data come from the health ministry, routinely inflates the share of women and children in the statistics.
The health ministry data also shows that men have been misclassified as women, the Fox report states. “In the August 2024 list, 103 names were marked as female who had a male first name (e.g. Mohammed).”
The report comes as Israel is on trial for alleged genocide at the International Court of Justice and prosecutions for alleged crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court against Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel and the United States, among other countries, have categorically rejected and condemned those charges.
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Israel’s advocates have said that even Hamas’s unreliable statistics, when combined with the Israeli estimates on the number of terrorists killed in the Gaza Strip, reveal a relatively low rate of civilian deaths. Considering the urban warfare conditions of the Gaza Strip, and Hamas’s strategy of using civilian shields, Israel’s defenders say the statistics reflect a major effort to avoid civilian loss of life during IDF operations to dismantle Hamas and free Israeli hostages.
An estimated 6,000 Palestinian terrorists invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, murdering some 1,200 people and abducting another 250. About 100 hostages remain in the Gaza Strip, though dozens of them are believed to have died. Israel and Hamas are engaged in indirect talks for a ceasefire. The condition of the hostages is unknown as Hamas has not allowed aid organizations, including the Red Cross, to visit them.
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