VICTORIA, Texas-: Today: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay slightly below average. High: 93 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph. A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Heat index temperatures will be near 105 degrees.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. Low: 76 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm.
Tuesday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay slightly below average. High: 94 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. Low: 77 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm.
Wednesday: Partly sunny skies with moderate light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 95/78 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm.
Extended Forecast: Wednesday Night through Monday:
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy skies with moderate breezy winds while temperatures stay around average. Low: 78 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph. A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 95/77 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15 mph. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm.
Friday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 96/77 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 95/77 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay slightly below average. High: 93/77 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay slightly below average. High: 93/76 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Synopsis: A boundary north of the viewing area has triggered showers (convection and airflow moving into the boundary from the south) and thunderstorms in the northern part of the area. The boundary will move slowly southward Sunday night, then dissipate over the northern portion of the viewing are by Monday evening. Water values are on the high side (over 2″) across the region. Expect isolated/scattered/convection/showers to reach the northern part of the viewing area Sunday evening and then dissipating.
Anticipate nighttime convective energy to produce showers over the waters early Monday morning. The combination of the surface boundary, moisture, moisture uplift (convergence) along the weak boundary, should generate isolated/scattered/convection/showers over the viewing area on Monday.
In the long term for the extended period, days 3 to 7, Tuesday through Sunday, hot and humid conditions will continue through the week as South Texas remains in the middle of troughing to the west and ridging to the east.
Moisture will be sufficient to continue isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday across the Coastal Plains, especially toward the Victoria Crossroads. Ridging will begin to build in more from the east on Wednesday, allowing for rain chances to decrease for the latter half of the week, but very isolated activity may still be possible. Heat Index Values of 105 to 109 degrees are expected on Tuesday, with Heat Index Values expected to increase to 110-113 degrees by Wednesday for many locations and continue through the end of the work week.
The main feature to keep an eye on for the long term will be how conditions unfold in the tropics. Fred has restrengthened into a Tropical Storm again in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This has triggered Storm Surge Warnings for the Florida Panhandle. Fred should make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or evening. Meanwhile, tropical storm conditions from Grace brought flooding and mudslides in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday (yesterday). Grace will impact Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Rain and winds could impact Cuba by Tuesday morning. Also, Tropical Depression number 8 is strengthening northeast of Bermuda with 30 mph winds while moving south at 7 mph issuing a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda and the surrounding waters.
While Tropical Storm Fred continues to affect the eastern Gulf, the impact can be felt across the Gulf. The new storm development has brought increased swells that are still expected to reach the Middle Texas Coastal spots Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, which will lead to an increased rip current risk.
Tides will also be entering a high tide cycle during the period, so there will be concern for coastal flooding potential. Any further shifts in the track to the west could bring stronger swells to the region.
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