BEIJING – In the few days since the Chinese government advised its citizens against visiting Japan over a bilateral spat, Tokyo-based tour guide Xie Shanpeng has received four cancellations from his Chinese customers but more than 90 per cent are continuing with their trips.
He has run his own tour business in Japan since 2013, and typically receives one to two thousand tourists from China a month.
“The impact in November doesn’t seem significant for now, because hotels and transport companies have to pay high cancellation fees closer to departure, making it economically unviable,” Mr Xie told The Straits Times.
“But for new inquiries, including those for travel to Japan during next year’s Spring Festival, those will certainly be affected,” he added.
The cancellations indicate that fallout from
Japanese Prime Minister
Sanae Takaichi’s
remarks
on Nov 7 in the Japanese parliament that Tokyo could respond militarily to a Chinese attack on Taiwan has continued.
Her remarks and refusal to retract them have incurred the ire of China which sees the self-governing island as its territory.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs
said that her remarks “constituted a blatant interference in China’s internal affairs”
and on Nov 13 summoned Japan’s ambassador to lodge a strong protest over the remarks.
Beijing has also expressed its displeasure by issuing official advisories discouraging its citizens from going to Japan for tourism and education.
On Nov 14, its Foreign Ministry published a notice that said that Japanese leaders’ “blatantly provocative remarks” have “severely damaged the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges between China and Japan, and pose significant risks to the personal safety and lives of Chinese citizens in Japan”.
China’s Ministry of Education said on Nov 16 that those planning to study in Japan
should “closely monitor the local security situation”
.
Over the weekend (Nov 15 and 16), major Chinese airlines such as national carrier Air China announced that full refunds will be offered to customers cancelling their bookings on flights to and from Japan up till Dec 31, 2025.
A Shenzhen-based operator of ski tours told ST that six of his customers, who were originally slated to visit Hokkaido at the end of the month, decided not to make the overseas trip, and to go to Xinjiang instead.
But this “isn’t representative” of everyone, he said, adding that he knew of others who planned to proceed with ski trips to Japan in early December.
Some Chinese travel agencies have frozen travel offerings to Japan, while others are adopting a “wait and see” approach.
Qinghai Modern International Travel Agency put up a WeChat post on Nov 17, noting the government travel advisories.
“Our company has responded positively to the national guidance, and have decided to fully suspend all tourist products to Japan,” said the post.
Beijing Huatu International Travel Service told local media that the company made the decision to not accept customers going to Japan for now.
“(But) for flights, hotels and visas that are issued for the near future, it is more difficult to cancel,” said a company representative.
It is, however, difficult to gauge the full damage to Chinese tourist numbers in Japan given that businesses are reluctant to openly discuss what is seen as a sensitive topic.
Travel agencies reached by ST on Nov 17 declined interviews when asked about recent developments.
At an hour-long livestream on Douyin on Nov 17, a higher education consultant who specialises in Japan took questions on student visas and learning the Japanese language, but avoided taking any that pertained to the current state of affairs between China and Japan.
“With the current domestic and international situation, is it still recommended to go to Japan?” asked a viewer, whose question was among those left unanswered.
Past episodes suggest that bilateral tension at the government level may not dent Chinese enthusiasm for travel to Japan.
For example, despite the release of treated wastewater from Japan’s stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in August 2023 that led to Beijing’s ban of seafood from Japan, Chinese tourists continued to flock there.
Japan’s tourism agency statistics show that the number of inbound visitors from China has grown yearly since 2021 to reach 6.9 million in 2024. More than 1 million visitors from China visited in August, a year-on-year increase of 36.5 per cent.
A Chinese robotics firm employee told ST that for now, her company still plans to travel to Tokyo for a trade show – one of the industry’s largest – in early December.
“Let’s see how things develop, hopefully the situation will ease up soon,” she said.
Around 50 Chinese companies attended the last run of the International Robot Exhibition in 2023.
Asked about China’s strong reaction, Associate Professor Dylan Loh told ST that Ms Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, in the eyes of Chinese policy-makers, could have served to confirm their assumptions that Ms Takaichi is – like former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe – a hardliner in terms of foreign and security policy.
Ms Takaichi is a protege of Mr Abe. Both are seen to represent the conservative faction of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
“I think because she is early in her tenure and because her position is not quite stable yet, China sees itself as able to more fully test the boundaries and react in the way it did,” said Prof Loh, who specialises in China’s foreign policy.
He saw China’s reaction as not just a signal to Ms Takaichi, but also to the Japanese political elite that what she said was unacceptable.
“It is also a signal to the broader international community, a warning, not to say or do similar things.”
-
Additional reporting by Joyce ZK Lim
