Hong Kong could fall short of its 2 per cent economic growth forecast under the effects of the United States’ sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods, while the local stock market may experience short-term fluctuations, a veteran banker has said.
“I expect that Hong Kong’s exports will experience quite a significant drop. I think there is a high chance that Hong Kong cannot reach its 2 per cent growth forecast,” George Leung Siu-Kay, senior adviser to Hang Seng Bank’s chief executive office, told a radio programme on Sunday.
“It depends on the tariff war, in particular, how long the exceptionally high tariff rates will be maintained. If a resolution is achieved soon, it can possibly reduce the impact on Hong Kong in the latter half of the year, but I believe certain tariffs will exist.”
But Leung said the city’s economy would not be as bad as during the Covid-19 pandemic, without elaborating further. He added that he expected that capital withdrawn from the US stock market could benefit Hong Kong.
US President Donald Trump has imposed cumulative tariffs of 145 per cent on all Chinese goods over several escalatory rounds, with the White House also revealing the figure to be as high as 245 per cent on some goods.
Authorities earlier forecast Hong Kong’s economy would grow by 2 to 3 per cent in 2025, after last year’s exports of goods reverted to growth.
