Global power is increasingly determined in space. Before a single shot is fired, tomorrow’s battles will be won in space, not on Earth. Air forces, armies and navies will win or lose battles based on who controls and dominates the space frontier.
This shift is the most urgent and important national security threat that most Americans have never heard about.
The United States Space Force has reported that China is experiencing a “strategic breakout” in space. China has detailed plans that it is steadily executing, putting the country on a path to capturing key strategic industries, key geographic regions and resources in space. China is on track to surpass the U.S. in space power within decades.
China already leads in lunar robotics, as demonstrated by the Chang-e 6 rover’s successful lunar south pole landing and sample return. The Center for Strategic and International Studies ranks China as the global leader in five out of eleven commercial satellite remote sensing capabilities, compared to America’s lead in just four.
In a decade, China’s satellite fleet grew from fewer than 100 satellites to over 1,000, mirroring U.S. systems like GPS and remote sensing. China is now launching a constellation reminiscent of the Starlink broadband system.
The world has watched in awe as SpaceX recently demonstrated a tremendous breakthrough in reusable launch vehicle technology with Starship. Reusable launch vehicles are critical technology of immense national security importance. What most Americans don’t understand is China started a program years ago to copy SpaceX’s Starship technology, and has already duplicated key SpaceX technologies.
There is a trend here. China has already surpassed the U.S. in computers and electronics, electric vehicles, drones, 5G, ship building, in both solar and nuclear energy and in manufacturing in general.
The stakes are even higher in space.
First, there is a well-established relationship between economic dominance and military superiority. The nation that leads commercially will dominate the space economy and will likely become the leading military power in space. Whoever dominates commercial space could soon dominate the world.
Second, space is the ultimate “shining city on the hill.” For the past 60 years, space has been a stage where America’s leadership and ideals have shone brightest. To maintain that soft power, we must continue setting the global standard in space. President John F. Kennedy knew this when he announced the goal of putting a man on the moon before the end of the 1960s.
Whoever establishes the first permanent human base on the moon will be seen by billions as the leader of the world. This is China’s plan. Soon, parents worldwide will look up to the night sky, point to the moon, and tell their children that people are living there. When the child asks “Who?” the answer will profoundly affect that child’s worldview.
Beating China in space does not mean getting back to the moon before China. America already beat China to the moon over 55 years ago.
The next competition is about who will lead the emerging industrial revolution in space. America and our allies need to lead in commercial space — not to keep others out but to establish and extend the international norms of peaceful cooperation through market forces to space.
Given that China is great at copying everything, how can America outpace China and win the new space race?
First, we can’t beat communists by using big-government methods. China is much better at central planning than America will ever be. China is dominated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a unitary dictatorship that controls all the levers of power. The CCP is faster and more efficient than America will ever be using the tools of socialism.
We need to play to our unique strengths. America’s distinct competitive advantage is our culture of freedom, which has created the world’s leading environment for entrepreneurial innovation. Freedom is our superpower.
In the past, NASA has proven that it can be a good partner with U.S. commercial industry to create breakthrough capabilities. NASA has repeatedly partnered with SpaceX to develop the Falcon 1 and 9 launchers, the Cargo and Crewed Dragon spacecraft and, most recently, Starship.
Commercial partnership methods are much faster and more efficient. Fifteen years ago, NASA estimated it would cost $3.98 billion to develop the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 launchers and the Dragon cargo spacecraft using traditional methods. SpaceX built them for $500 million because NASA used a commercial partnership approach. This is not unique. Over 30 years ago, NASA estimated that it would cost $1.2 billion to develop a research module for the Space Shuttle. SpaceHab built it for $159 million.
Our national security is now at risk. Speed is essential, and only the private sector can help the government succeed in time.
We need to change the game again. NASA and the U.S. Space Force need to double down on commercial partnerships. The only way to beat China in space is to leverage the power and innovation of the American entrepreneur.
Steve Kwast is the CEO of SpaceBilt, Inc. and a Lieutenant General (ret) in the U.S. Air Force.
