Heat pumps are the single biggest tool for U.S. households to cut carbon emissions and curb unhealthy air pollution. They’re also far more efficient than the fossil-fueled or electric resistance heating appliances found in most homes, meaning most households can save on utility bills by purchasing one.
But making it as cheap and simple as possible for households to replace their fossil-fueled boilers, furnaces, and water heaters with electric heat pumps involves a lot of hard work — and not a little bit of extra money. Heat pumps, which are reversible air conditioners, can come with significant up-front costs.
Over the past four years, numerous local, state, and federal policies have been signed into law to lower heat pump costs and spur adoption of the appliances. Now, advocates are assessing how to keep that momentum going under an incoming Trump administration and a Republican-controlled Congress likely to reverse or at least water down federal support.
That’s not an ideal political turn for a technology that faces an uphill climb, even with its many benefits and the recent policy support.
Fewer than one in five U.S. households have heat pumps today. Far more must install them to eliminate the roughly 10 percent of U.S. carbon emissions that come from burning fossil fuels in homes. To also replace the inefficient electric resistance heaters that tax the power grid and cost consumers, every U.S. household with heating would need to get a heat pump.
Heat pumps have outsold fossil-gas furnaces for the past two years, but adoption is still not growing anywhere near fast enough. Heat pump sales need to triple over the next three years to hit the Biden administration’s goal of halving U.S. carbon emissions by 2030, according to advocacy group Rewiring America.
So, where does the U.S. stand now? In a December report, the Building Decarbonization Coalition, a nonprofit that promotes heat pumps and is part of public-private partnerships in nine states, laid out how far the country has come, how much more must be done, and what the change in federal government will mean.
“We’re talking about what we’ve learned, what we’re hopeful for, and yes, what’s making us perhaps bite our nails a bit as we’re looking ahead to the post-2024 election landscape,” said Rose Stephens-Booker, BDC’s managing director of programs and partnerships.
The good news — growing markets, supportive incentives, aggressive goals
The first positive news comes from the marketplace, where heat pumps continue to outsell fossil gas furnaces. That trend began in 2022 and accelerated in 2023.
And as per data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute through September of this year, “once again, we’ve seen heat pumps outpace their fossil-fuel counterparts,” said Kristin George Bagdanov, BDC senior policy research manager.
In fact, heat pump sales widened their lead over the past 12 months, exceeding furnace sales by 27 percent, up 2.4 percent compared with the previous 12 months.
BDC tracked similarly favorable market data for water heating, which makes up about 18 percent of residential energy use. Electric water heaters expanded their lead over fossil-gas water heaters in 2024, surpassing sales of their gas counterparts by 23 percent, according to BDC.
Most of the electric water heaters in homes today are electric resistance models, which are far less efficient than heat pump water heaters. But data from the Environmental Protection Agency shows that in 2023, heat pump water heaters outsold gas-fueled water-tank-storage water heaters for the first time. Still, the technology was installed in only about 4 percent of U.S. homes as of late last year.
The primary barriers to expanding these markets remain up-front cost and complexity.
Most households replace heating systems when existing equipment breaks down. It’s harder to cheaply and quickly replace fossil-fuel units with heat pumps, which can require extra work like electrical upgrades or installing new pipes. And many contractors are leery of heat pumps, since longer and more complicated jobs mean less money, along with concerns that a novel system won’t be as reliable as fossil gas.
Technology advances like 120-volt heat pump water heaters and window-mounted heat pumps are starting to ease some of these constraints, particularly for renters and households that lack central air systems. But to make pumps the preferred option for households and contractors alike will take a concerted effort, said Matt Casale, BDC’s director of state mobilization — particularly to ensure that lower-income households aren’t left behind.
“Cost of living is and will continue to be a major issue in the years to come,” he said. “States that are leading on building decarbonization are going to be digging into this issue to ensure that the transition is affordable, accessible, and equitable.”
Getting costs down
Heat pumps are more expensive up front than fossil-gas heating equipment, although just how much more expensive depends on a wide and sometimes unpredictable set of variables. Regional climate conditions make a big difference in installation prices, as do the vagaries of individual home construction, insulation, and preexisting heating systems. The availability of equipment and skilled labor to install it also influences up-front costs, as does contractor education and willingness to take on the extra work that’s likely to be involved.
As for long-term costs, the price of electricity versus fossil gas plays a major factor on whether swapping your furnace for a heat pump will save you money over its lifetime. So does the appliance you’re switching from. If you’re ditching an old, inefficient gas or oil heating system, chances are the heat pump financials work out for you. If you have a newer, more efficient gas furnace, they might not.
Overcoming these obstacles will require more policy support, Casale said.
