How much did Iran gamble on the Assad regime in Syria?

In the absence of transparent information about Iran’s military and economic expenditures in the region, it is challenging to determine the precise amount Iran has lost with the overthrow of the Assad dynasty.

However, estimates and sources that spoke with The New Arab suggest the figure is between $30 billion and $50 billion. This estimate excludes the military aid Tehran provided to Assad and the arms delivered to his regime.

This amount is significant, given Iran’s struggling economy, which has made life increasingly difficult for many Iranians. To put this in perspective, the oil-rich country’s latest annual budget is $130 billion.

Iran’s support for the Assad family did not begin with the Syrian civil war that erupted after an uprising in 2011. After the 1979 revolution, then-Syrian President Hafez al-Assad and Iran’s newly established Islamic government forged close political and economic ties.

During the eight-year Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Syria was the only Arab country that supported Iran, further strengthening its relationship with Tehran.

However, these relations, initially based on bilateral agreements and economic cooperation, entered a new phase with the onset of the Syrian revolution and civil war.

Direct monetary aid

“The outbreak of the civil war marked the start of unilateral monetary and economic aid from Iran to Syria,” explained a source who spoke to TNA on condition of anonymity due to security concerns.

“The Iranian establishment no longer adhered to agreements or formalities and instead began channelling all available resources to save Syria’s economy, which was devastated by war and corruption,” the source added.

According to this source, the only way to estimate the total amount Iran sent to Syria in loans, humanitarian aid, and economic support is to take the few figures announced by the establishment and double them.

One of the few figures close to the establishment who has openly discussed Iran’s direct monetary aid to Syria is Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee, who served until 2020.

Falahatpisheh estimated that Syria owed Iran between $20 billion and $30 billion by the end of his tenure. In an interview, he stated that he had spent a decade recovering Syria’s debt, but his efforts were fruitless.

TNA‘s source believes Falahatpisheh’s estimate significantly understates Syria’s actual debt to Iran.

“Even if we accept his estimate, an additional $10 billion to $15 billion must be added to account for Iran’s continued support at the same pace between 2020 and 2025,” the source concluded.

Economic investment

An economic expert, who spoke to TNA under the condition of anonymity, also emphasised that the $30 billion figure is unreliable because it does not account for Iran’s exports to Syria and commercial investments in the country.

“During the Syrian civil war, Iran exported billions of dollars worth of fuel, raw materials, and consumables to Syria to prevent the country’s economy from collapsing and to strengthen the forces supporting Bashar al-Assad. I do not believe this capital expenditure was included in the figure Falahatpishe provided,” the source asserted. 

According to this economic expert, Syria could not afford to pay for imports from Iran during the civil war. As a result, some repayments were made through exports of raw materials, while others were never repaid.

The source also noted that the costs related to human losses should be factored into this equation. Some reports indicate that more than 5,000 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel were killed during the Syrian civil war. These officers were paid and trained directly from Iran’s annual budget.

“The costs associated with the deaths of these individuals do not simply disappear. Over the past four decades, the Iranian regime has demonstrated that even after the deaths of its forces, it continues to allocate substantial money and benefits to the families of those killed to maintain their support,” the source stressed.

Another point the expert highlighted is the Iranian government’s investments in Syrian infrastructure, such as the construction of cement and automobile factories, as well as housing and roads.

One video widely shared on Persian-language social media in recent weeks showed an Israeli attack on an automobile manufacturing factory where the Iranian company Saipa was a major investor.

Now, with the end of the Assad family’s rule in Syria, questions about the Iranian regime’s expenditures in Syria are being raised more than ever in unofficial Iranian discourse.

Although those in power attempt to downplay these costs or discuss the possibility of seeking compensation from the new Syrian rulers, many experts argue that wealth that could have been invested and utilised within Iran has been wasted in Syria.

One such expert is Nozar Shafaei, who, in an interview with Ham Mihan daily, stated, “We have been the most affected and unsuccessful country in Syria because no other country has spent as much as we have there.”

He called for a shift in the government’s regional policies, emphasising, “The developments in Syria should serve as a historical lesson for us. Unfortunately, some in our government choose to ignore this issue. But to avoid further problems, we need a significant transformation in our foreign policy.”