In early July, Arsenal left back Myles Lewis-Skelly renewed his contract with the club, rewarding him for an incredible 2024-25 season in which he made the step up from academy to first team in style and played over 2,000 minutes.
The 18-year-old impressed since making his first Premier League start against Everton in December, putting in a man-of-the-match performance against Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals and even becoming the youngest player to score on his senior debut for England in March.
So, amid reported transfer interest from Real Madrid, you would think that when it came to negotiating his new contract Lewis-Skelly and his representatives would have all the evidence they needed to cement their case for the best possible deal after such a breakthrough campaign.
But the teenager followed in the footsteps of some other major stars — namely Kevin De Bruyne, Ben White, Héctor BellerÃn, Mason Mount, Alex Greenwood and Lotte Wubben-Moy — to employ the services of Analytics FC.
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The company arms the player and their agent with data and analysis of the player’s performance to give them a fresh edge in negotiating a contract. For years, clubs have used analytics to gather insights when signing players; Analytics FC are essentially flipping the script, enabling players and agents to make their case to the clubs, in the form of deep research and a presentation to help them secure better contracts for a fixed fee.
So what happens in those meetings? What do Analytics FC provide that’s so valuable outside the available data that everyone has access to? And how do their findings help during contract negotiations?
*Editor’s note: Some players cannot be named for confidentiality reasons.
The process
“It starts with a conversation,” Analytics FC CEO Alex Stewart tells ESPN. “We’re always approached in the first instance either by an agent or a lawyer. They will come to us and say, typically, ‘our player is approaching a negotiation point.'”
That “negotiation point” generally represents one of three junctures: A player either wants a new deal at their club, is assessing their future options or wants to leave and needs help finding the best possible move. A detailed chat with the agent and player follows, establishing what’s required, and then a report full of research, analytics and contextualized data is created.
“We present a PDF document and it’s anything between 40 and 80 pages; they’re big, chunky pieces of work,” Stewart says. “We take the agent through it, and sometimes the player, so they’re fully briefed on what’s being said. We make sure they understand it; they can ask questions about it.”
A 40-page document typically takes between 60 and 90 minutes to comb through. Some players are more engaged than others, with Arsenal men’s right back White and women’s team defender Wubben-Moy particularly involved.
“Wubben-Moy was very engaged with the process,” Stewart says. “She asked loads of really smart questions about how the data was being used, where it was coming from and pointing out things that she felt were perhaps worth bringing out a little bit more. White asked questions and raised tactical points.”
After the initial briefing, the report is handed over to the player and agent. “It’s their work now,” Stewart says. “They commissioned it; they can do whatever they like with it — use it, redact certain bits, or ignore it completely.”
What kind of statistics are used?
Analytics FC draws upon a series of third-party data providers to build customized data models. It is, by nature, incredibly complicated stuff but, in layman’s terms, here’s some of what they do:
– Use a custom-built, proprietary metric called Goal Difference Added (GDA), which measures the impact every single action a player makes (positive or negative) with regard to their team’s chances of scoring a goal.
– Create their own event-based statistics that are not publicly available, such as diagonal passes or passes made in transition.
– Use Monte Carlo simulations (an algorithmic method that uses random sampling to assess the probability of outcomes) to model what would happen if, for example, Player X joined Team Y, or if Player Z got injured for six months. These simulations work similarly to how the Opta supercomputer projects outcomes for a team’s title and relegation chances, computing thousands of possible outcomes and showing you the most likely one.
– Provide accurate salary benchmarking, allowing players to know what their peers are earning so they can cross-compare. A combination of previous reports and research combine to provide this information.
Most reports will include all the above as standard, plus several more bespoke elements that players and agents ask for or that Analytics FC uncover during their research period. This is where things get really interesting. Here are some examples.
Example: Knowing Your Worth
Kevin De Bruyne’s four-year contract extension with Man City in 2021
“The first report we did was with Kevin De Bruyne,” Stewart explains. “At that point in time he was certainly the best central midfielder in world football, and arguably the best all-round player in world football. But what is the point of going to Manchester City and saying that? ‘Thanks so much, wow, money well spent! Instead, we needed to tie his performance elements, his outputs, to some sort of financial measure.”
The fact that De Bruyne topped Analytics FC’s GDA metric in 2021 was a help in negotiations and referenced in the report. The metric incorporates an array of different actions to determine how much of an influence a player is on their team’s scoring chances.
“So there is a value that you can understand,” Stewart says. “There’s a very small number of players in the world who can do the stuff that he does. And if you’re losing him, it’s going to cost you a lot to replace him. And then there’s the known quantity vs. unknown quantity argument, plus some of those players won’t want to come.”
De Bruyne and his representatives secured around a 30% pay rise for his new contract and set a mutual goal of winning the UEFA Champions League. Two years later, City achieved it.
Ben White’s long-term contract extension with Arsenal in 2024
White’s presentation was 52 pages long. Durability was featured, as he missed just one Premier League game across the entirety of 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, and his salary was benchmarked [photo right: two examples of slides from his presentation] against other elite defenders across Europe.
“We also looked at positional versatility and the value [to the team] added by that, then made projections around longevity of player performance within certain positions,” Stewart explains. “If you look at Ben as a fullback, you can then compare him using an age curve and say, if he switches positions at age 30 [to center back], then the skills that are valuable to him in aspects of his fullback play stay, but the potential drop-off around other aspects is less pronounced. It makes him more of a long-term investment.”
Monte Carlo simulations were run to show what White would add to each of Bayern Munich, Barcelona, AC Milan, Marseille and Manchester City’s starting XIs — and how he would positively impact those teams’ chances of winning the league title or the Champions League. Those teams were chosen in part for stylistic match, and in part to cover the breadth of Europe’s top-five leagues.
“We were one of the first agencies that started delving into that. We really embraced it,” Alex Levack, who is White’s agent, tells ESPN. “It helps you establish why we’re asking for that figure [his client’s wages]. You can quantify why you’re asking for that figure with data. If you go into a negotiation and one side is incredibly prepared, they have a retort to everything you’re saying. But if you’re armed too, you can say, ‘well no, have you seen this? That doesn’t back up what you’ve said?'”
And did it help?
“Yes,” he added. “It gives you more confidence. You’ve got those extra tools to draw upon.”
After combing through the 52-page document Analytics FC handed over for White, Levack produced a toned-down, abbreviated version to present to Arsenal’s hierarchy during negotiations. Exact details of White’s contract remain confidential, but Levack confirmed they were happy with the deal and confident it rewarded White’s worth in the context of the market.
Example: Getting ahead of criticism
Alex Greenwood’s three-year contract extension Man City in 2022
“When we worked with Greenwood, we were conscious that although she was, and still is, one of the best passing defenders in world football, there might be questions [from the club] around defensive application,” Stewart explains. “We wanted to head off that potential line of argument.
“What we did was we created an analysis that showed that Manchester City men’s defenders were predominantly asked to pass, rather than defend. Then we showed that Manchester City’s women [in that position] had exactly the same profile.
“So what City ask of their men’s and women’s defenders are the same, and they’re very happy to pay the men huge amounts of money for what they do. It’s a comparison point to deny a potential line of argument [against Greenwood’s abilities].”
The report highlighted Greenwood’s strengths in buildup play, how strong her progressive passing and line-breaking passing is, and how well she carries the ball up the field. It helped earn a three-year extension at a club she already felt settled at.
Financial details of the contract are confidential, but the negotiation — and its use of data — was deemed so successful that it went on to become a case study at Harvard Business School.
Player A’s permanent transfer to Serie A
“We worked with an attacking player [the player cannot be named for confidentiality reasons] who recently moved to Serie A and went on to win silverware,” Stewart says. “There were concerns — and this came from his agent first — that a ‘lack of creativity’ might be used as a point of criticism to bring down his potential wages during negotiations. So we said ‘OK, you would ordinarily measure creativity in key passes, assists and so on, but this guy wins penalties, and he wins fouls in dangerous positions all the time. So let’s reframe our concept of creativity.
“If you win a penalty, that’s an expected assist of around 0.75. So when you look at the player in that way, then actually they’re extremely creative. They’re racking up chances all the time.”
In 2020-21, the player won 0.26 penalties per 90, which was the second-most in Europe’s top five leagues. Those penalties were worth 0.12 GDA (see above), also the second-best mark. He won five penalties in his first season with his new club.
“So that’s an example of when the agent has come to us and said ‘we think this might be a concern.’ We’re trying to head off these arguments by anticipating ways in which the player might have their value misconstrued because of the absence of a particular kind of performance.”
Making the right move
Example: Héctor BellerÃn loan to Real Betis from Arsenal
“When we worked with BellerÃn [in 2021], one of the key elements there was that he wanted to get back into the Spain national team, as a World Cup cycle was beginning,” Stewart says. “So we needed to gear some of our research towards which clubs would make that more likely, which scenarios would make that more likely.”
The attacking right back was 26 but had reached the end of a cycle with Arsenal, at a time where Unai Emery had replaced Arsène Wenger as manager and the club were refreshing several elements of the squad. He and his representatives asked Analytics FC to produce a list of clubs whose playing style matched his, and would therefore help accentuate his strengths in front of the watching eye of then-national team manager Luis Enrique.
Real Betis was chosen, where BellerÃn played over 2,000 minutes in the 2021-22 season, but his performances weren’t enough to force his way into the Spain squad for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Example: Player B
“We did a report for a high-profile women’s player [a Champions League and multiple domestic title winner] who was exploring her options at the end of her contract,” Stewart says. “We compared and contrasted several teams, looking at what the head coaches of those teams required from the players in her role.
“We also assessed the squad depth of destination clubs, likely financial implications of each move, and projected use at each club.”
As in the BellerÃn example, matching a player’s style to that of a team is fundamental to any transfer working out. It may seem an elementary point, but soccer is littered with bad moves because this wasn’t considered strongly enough. And in Player B’s case it worked out fine.
Loyalty penalty
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Example: Mason Mount’s contract discussions at Chelsea in 2021
“We worked with Mount and studied the concept of loyalty,” Stewart says. “Effectively looking at how players who have come through an academy at a club, and then stayed, were basically penalized for their loyalty by receiving lower contract offers than players that had been bought in from elsewhere.”
Analytics FC’s report confirmed that suspicion, so the agent utilized that knowledge heading into his client’s negotiations. “He said ‘send me a second copy, with the numbers redacted,'” Stewart recalls, “so he could present them to the club and say ‘I know what these numbers are but I’m not going to show you’ to try and get them to present a better deal.”
In this instance, demonstrating that you have the knowledge was more important than what the actual numbers were.
Myles Lewis-Skelly’s long-term contract extension for Arsenal in 2025
The specific details of Lewis-Skelly’s Analytics FC report are confidential, but during the conversation for this piece it became clear that the “loyalty penalty” research originally conducted for Mount’s report was updated for the Arsenal defender’s salary benchmarking.
Analytics FC also used a “grouping” method to compare him to other breakout stars, highlighting how what he had achieved in his first senior season truly was a rare feat.
“One of the groups that we compared Myles with was the very, very small number of players who had made their first team debut in Europe’s top-five leagues and then gone on to play over 600 minutes in that season,” Stewart says. “Going back to the 2017-18 season, that’s just 69 players; it’s a tiny, tiny number. So that group immediately gives us a set of players that we can contextualize him within.
“So you can say ‘it’s phenomenal that Lewis-Skelly has come into the Arsenal team and stuck there,’ yes. Or you can say, since 2017-18, only 69 players have done what he’s done. Of all the thousands of players that have played in Europe’s top-five leagues across that eight-year period, only 69 of them have done what he’s done.
“You’re saying the same thing, but one of them is a value judgment and one of them is a data-grounded observation — and that’s very powerful.”
A rapidly changing landscape
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While Arsenal declined to give an official comment themselves when asked by ESPN, the club were one of the first to bring data in-house and Levack says: “Arsenal were very receptive to the approach, which was no surprise. When Ben signed for them, they produced a whole dossier on him, explaining why they chose him over every other right back. Their hierarchy is very data savvy, so they were welcoming of it.
“Were there quibbles with the data presented? A few, yes. When it got to the business end, when we got really close to sealing the deal, some of the points raised [on either side] were picked at a bit.”
ESPN spoke to various agents and club representatives from around Europe for this piece, and every single one agreed that data and analytics forms a central part of transfer and contract negotiations in 2025. Those individuals were also unanimous in their agreement of Analytics FC’s assertion that they were “levelling the playing field” by giving all parties access to the same data and resources.
White’s agent Levack described it as “like going into a duel where both parties have the same-sized swords” and stressed that the report he received for the Arsenal defender gave him extreme confidence in the figures they were asking for.
VÃtor Gonçalves, CFO of Portuguese agency Pro Eleven, which works with André Horta, João Moutinho and Diogo Dalot, among others, provided ESPN with a series of examples [see photo right] of how they incorporate data into their pitches and negotiations, allowing access to the analysis they construct on the soccer players they look after.
“For a long time, clubs had a clear data advantage: They had in-house analytics teams, exclusive tools and access to match data that agents simply couldn’t match,” Gonçalves said. “But the gap is closing. Specialist services like Analytics FC — and also platforms like SkillCorner, SciSports, Comparisonator, Scoutastic and more — are contributing to a shift.”
Liam Bowes, Managing Director of OYS Sports Management, told ESPN about a first-hand experience of a club presenting “thorough, in-depth, detailed” analysis of his client, Ricky-Jade Jones, during a recruitment meeting with Bundesliga club St. Pauli this year. The player’s sprint speed and acceleration data were key to the pitch.
“They wanted a high-pressing forward, who could shut space down effectively,” Bowes said. “They wanted a lot of pace, a lot of energy, so he ticked a lot of boxes.”
Jones was clocked as the fastest player in world soccer by Gradient Sports (formerly PFF) in 2024, making him an obvious fit.
Bowes was understandably delighted that the data presented worked in Jones’ favor – but, hypothetically, what if it had told a different story? “That’s where, as an agent, you would then have to try and deflect — to move the conversation back to other aspects,” he says. “If you don’t have data to back yourself up, maybe you have to get more creative, or make your point another way.”
Chris Atkins, the agent who secured Zambia striker Racheal Kundananji’s women’s world-record transfer at the time ($785,000) to NWSL side Bay FC from Madrid CFF in 2024, said: “I’ve not used Analytics FC myself, but we are one of the few women’s agencies to have invested in Statsbomb access — albeit the majority of our use for it is for recruitment purposes. When marketing a player to clubs it can be a useful tool to show them how they compare to either the occupant of the position or a similar player that maybe we’re aware the club have an interest in.”
Barnsley sporting director Mladen Sormaz gave a club’s perspective on this changing landscape.
“Agencies are getting really good at using analytics internally, to make sure that they’re targeting you with a player who is relevant [pushing recruitment], or backing up claims they make about how good the player is,” he told ESPN. “There’s a few agencies we deal with regarding our players who even do three-month reviews based on their playing data to help manage their careers. Effective agencies are starting to mirror things that a club has — nutrition, sports science, medical, legal help — so data analysis was always going to become part of that. They have to keep up.”
How long until this is normal?
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“I think some of it depends on attitude,” Analytics FC’s Stewart says. “There’s no doubt that football in general is shifting towards this kind of thing. There are now people who are young, smart, understand data, get the value and want to be a sporting director. That’s a landscape that you wouldn’t have found 10 years ago, so it is becoming much more widespread — but this is still quite a niche aspect of it.”
Two club sources, who work for top-level European clubs, sounded similar caution on the uptake.
“There are still many clubs out there who still don’t utilize analytics in full — even some of the ones who would stand to gain the most from it — so it’s tough to see some of them embracing specialist services anytime soon,” said one. Another source, who works in Serie A, said that this practice is still rare in Italy.
But the major elephant in the room is the sheer cost of it. Analytics FC would not confirm exactly how expensive their service is, though Stewart left the impression that it is simply out of some agencies’ and players’ price range, while Levack simply said: “It cost a lot.”
Gonçalves accepted that this service isn’t “accessible to everyone,” but stressed the idea that he saw them as “investments, rather than expenses.” He suggested a time frame of three to five years for this practice to become normalized.
“Cost is a big factor,” Bowes said. “But if it’s going to add zeroes to the deal, you have to look at it; it could make all the difference. As an agent, it’s my job to consider everything.”
Sormaz believes it will catch on simply because success stories are the best kind of validation. “Kevin De Bruyne using Analytics FC perked a few ears, and now it feels like there’s one or two of these cases a month – where a high-profile player is using independent analytics to their benefit. As more and more players start to see their teammates getting results from it in their negotiations, it could take hold and explode.”
Word travels fast, and as more and more illustrious names join De Bruyne, White and Greenwood and company in seeking this kind of assistance in negotiations, there’s a chance this kind of preparation for contract negotiations becomes a more consistent feature at elite level in the future.
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