It’s been a journey into the unknown, but the new-look 36-team Champions League is finally reaching the climax of the league phase.
While we’re starting to get some kind of idea of who’s going to go through, a lot can happen in the last two rounds. We don’t yet (officially) know any of the eight clubs who will go straight through to the round of 16, or the 16 teams who will have to take part in the knockout playoff round in February.
Three teams have already been eliminated, with nine more to come over the next week.
Unlike in previous seasons, no teams will drop into the Europa League from the Champions League.
Unexpectedly, there are some big clubs in real danger of being eliminated, which might not have been the case under the old format.
Let’s take a look at what’s at stake and how the final matchdays are shaping up.
How does it work?
The teams in position 1-8 go straight to the round of 16, and won’t have to play games in February.
The clubs in places 9-24 will face the playoff round next month.
Those in 25th to 36th are eliminated.
Does it matter where you finish in the table?
Yes, because the league placings create the knockout bracket. Unlike in previous seasons, where there would be open draws, paths will be set after this phase has been completed.
The new “seeding” system means the highest-placed teams can’t face each other until the latter stages of the knockout round.
For instance, if we look at the table right now, Liverpool and Barcelona are in 1st and 2nd and they would not be able to play each other until the final. The teams in third and fourth — currently Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen — can’t play Liverpool or Barcelona until the semifinals.
However, the value of being placed high in the table has been complicated by poor European seasons for Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid, who have unexpectedly become possible opponents earlier in the knockout rounds.
The teams in 1st and 2nd will play 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the round of 16. A host of top clubs could yet finish in one of those positions, including Juventus (14th), Real Madrid (20th), Manchester City (22nd).
What are the league phase tiebreakers?
1 – Goal difference
2 – Goals scored
3 – Away goals scored
4 – Wins
5 – Away wins
6 – Higher number of total points collected by league phase opponents*
7 – Higher goal difference attained of league phase opponents*
8 – Higher goals scored by league phase opponents*
9 – Disciplinary points
10 – UEFA club coefficient.
*You add up the record of the eight teams faced in the league phase, effectively creating a difficulty level of opponents.
Who is already through to the knockout rounds?
Liverpool (top 16) and Barcelona (top 24) are the only two teams who are assured of being in the competition beyond this month — yet even those two clubs are not, mathematically at least, guaranteed to finish in the top eight.
How it looks: the battle to go through
Going into the penultimate round of fixtures, 19 points will guarantee a direct place in the round of 16 — which is why no team is yet locked. But it will be much lower than this.
Before the competition began it was thought that 16 points would secure a place in the top eight, but the low spread of points at the bottom of the table means it could take 17 points to be absolutely certain of going through.
Similarly, it was thought nine points would be enough to finish in at least 24th place, but it might take 10 points this season.
1. Liverpool (18 points)
Lille (h), PSV Eindhoven (a)
A remarkable collection of results are required for Liverpool to finish ninth on goal difference. That isn’t going to happen so, in truth, they are through to the round of 16 bar final confirmation, which would come with a win or draw at home to Lille on Tuesday.
Liverpool would also finish in the top eight with a loss to Lille if two of Aston Villa, Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund fail to win.
2. Barcelona (15)
Benfica (a), Atalanta (h)
One win for Barcelona should be enough for a top-eight finish — but it will only be official on Tuesday if a victory at Benfica is coupled with two of Aston Villa, Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund drawing or losing.
3. Arsenal (13)
Dinamo Zagreb (h), Girona (a)
4. Bayer Leverkusen (13)
Atlético Madrid (a), Sparta Prague (h)
5. Aston Villa (13)
AS Monaco (a), Celtic (h)
6. Internazionale (13)
Sparta Prague (a), AS Monaco (h)
7. Brest (13)
Shakhtar Donetsk (a), Real Madrid (h)
8. Lille (13)
Liverpool (a), Feyenoord Rotterdam (h)
The six teams on 13 points can secure a place in the knockout rounds with a win on Matchday 7 (though there’s really no doubt they will continue in Europe.) Getting to 16 points might turn out to be good enough for a top-eight finish, though that may have to wait until next week.
Arsenal have the most favourable fixture, at home on Wednesday to a Zagreb side battling to stay inside the top 24.
Inter Milan and Brest are away this week and face teams who must win to remain in contention for the knockout playoff round. As Brest host Real Madrid on Matchday 8, Wednesday’s match against Shakhtar Donetsk in Gelsenkirchen could be make-or-break for their hopes of being in the top eight.
Bayer Leverkusen face a tough assignment away to Atlético Madrid, but have the comfort of a home fixture against Sparta Prague next week. Lille have it just as hard with a trip to Liverpool, and may have an eye on next week’s game at home to Feyenoord as the best chance of claiming three points.
Aston Villa finish at home, to Celtic, but have a winnable game on Tuesday at Monaco.
9. Borussia Dortmund (12)
Bologna (a), Shakhtar Donetsk (h)
10. Bayern Munich (12)
Feyenoord Rotterdam (a), Slovan Bratislava (h)
11. Atlético Madrid (12)
Bayer Leverkusen (h), RB Salzburg (a)
12. AC Milan (12)
Girona (h), Dinamo Zagreb (a)
Likewise, victories for the four teams on 12 points will confirm what we already know, that they will continue in Europe. However, 15 points looks unlikely to be enough for a top-eight placing to avoid the knockout playoff round.
Borussia Dortmund have decent fixtures, with a trip to 33rd place Bologna (who sit on two points and are effectively out), followed by a home game against Shakhtar , who will already be eliminated if they fail to beat Brest this week.
It looks positive for AC Milan, at home to 30th-place Girona (who will be out if they lose), before a trip to 24th-placed Dinamo Zagreb.
Bayern Munich go to Feyenoord and then host Slovan Bratislava (who have zero points.) Bayern may need to get something in from a potentially tricky trip to the Netherlands to have a realistic chance of finishing in the top eight.
Atlético Madrid face two Bundesliga sides and perhaps have the toughest task of those on 12 points.
13. Atalanta (11)
SK Sturm Graz (h), Barcelona (a)
14. Juventus (11)
Club Brugge (a), Benfica (h)
Serie A duo Atalanta and Juventus just about have enough interest, as they are already on enough points to continue in Europe, but in need of two victories to make the top eight.
Atalanta must travel to Barcelona next week, which makes their task extremely difficult. But Juve might feel they have a chance of getting the six points they need.
15. Benfica (10)
Barcelona (h), Juventus (a)
16. AS Monaco (10)
Aston Villa (h), Internazionale (a)
17. Sporting CP (10)
RB Leipzig (a), Bologna (h)
18. Feyenoord Rotterdam (10)
Bayern Munich (h), Lille (a)
19. Club Brugge (10)
Juventus (h), Manchester City (a)
The five teams on 10 points really are in the middle of the pack. It would be a surprise if 10 points doesn’t earn a place in the knockout playoff round.
At the same time, two wins to get to 16 points might not be enough to make the top eight.
The fixture list suggests Sporting CP have by far the best chance of getting six points from the remaining games.
Who would have thought that Real Madrid and Manchester City, winners of the past three editions between them, and Paris Saint-Germain, finalists in 2020, would be in need of a result to secure enough points to make the knockout rounds heading into Matchday 7?
Yet that’s exactly the position.
The remaining sides in the table will not gain enough points to make the top eight, so they will be playing in the knockout playoff round in February if they are to continue in Europe.
20. Real Madrid (9)
FC Salzburg (h), Brest (a)
21. Celtic (9)
Young Boys (h), Aston Villa (a)
On Wednesday, Real Madrid host FC Salzburg, who will be eliminated without a victory at the Bernabeu. Los Blancos will expect to gain the three points which will ensure they don’t face a shock exit.
Celtic also have a crucial home fixture against a Young Boys side who are rock bottom, having lost all six matches. It’s a must-win for the Scottish team, and it would put them in the knockout playoff round.
22. Manchester City (8)
Paris Saint-Germain (a), Club Brugge (h)
23. PSV Eindhoven (8)
Red Star Belgrade (a), Liverpool (h)
24. Dinamo Zagreb (8)
Arsenal (a), AC Milan (h)
The three teams on eight points also know that one win should see them through.
All eyes are on the game between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City, with the Ligue 1 side remarkably sat on seven points and outside the top 24. Regardless, City hosting a last-day home match against Club Brugge is a good security backup.
PSV Eindhoven will be targeting their game at Red Star (who must win), as the key to their progress with Liverpool to come next week.
Dinamo Zagreb are just clinging on to the top 24 but have a very difficult double, travelling to Arsenal before playing at home to AC Milan.
25. Paris Saint-Germain (7)
Manchester City (h), VfB Stuttgart (a)
26. VfB Stuttgart (7)
Slovan Bratislava (a), Paris Saint-Germain (h)
One win might not be enough for these two sides.
If Paris Saint-Germain lose at home to Man City, their chances of qualifying will be hanging by a thread.
For Stuttgart, victory at already-eliminated Slovan Bratislava is absolutely vital.
And what about that final day… Stuttgart vs. PSG … and it’s shaping up as winner-takes-all to go through.
27. Shakhtar Donetsk (4)
Brest (h), Borussia Dortmund (a)
28. Sparta Prague (4)
Internazionale (h), Bayer Leverkusen (a)
29. SK Sturm Graz (3)
Atalanta (a), RB Leipzig (h)
30. Girona (3)
AC Milan (a), Arsenal (h)
31. Red Star Belgrade (3)
PSV Eindhoven (h), Young Boys (a)
32. RB Salzburg (3)
Real Madrid (a), Atlético Madrid (h)
33. Bologna (2)
Borussia Dortmund (h), Sporting CP (a)
It’s looking grim for the sides in 27th and below, with all seven needing to win both their remaining matches to have any chance of qualifying.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Sparta Prague can still get to 10 points, so they at least appear to have a chance.
But Sturm Graz, Girona, Red Star Belgrade and FC Salzburg can only reach nine points, and that doesn’t look like it will be enough.
Bologna are still mathematically able to make the knockout rounds, but their elimination is a formality
34. RB Leipzig (0)
Sporting CP (h), SK Sturm Graz (a)
35. Slovan Bratislava (0)
VfB Stuttgart (h), Bayern Munich (a)
36. Young Boys (0)
Celtic (a), Red Star Belgrade (h)
Three clubs have failed to score a point and have already been knocked out.
When is the draw for the knockout rounds?
The draw for the knockout playoff round — featuring the clubs who finish ninth to 24th — will take place on Friday, Jan. 31 at 6 a.m. ET / 11 a.m. UK.
How does the knockout draw work?
In the knockout playoff round draw, teams are paired by their final position
Before the draw, teams will have two possible opponents.
For instance, 21st (Celtic) and 22nd (Manchester City) will be paired to play either 11th (Atlético Madrid) or 12th (AC Milan).
The two pairs of fixtures will then be drawn into opposite halves of the bracket.
First legs: Feb. 11-12, 2025
Second legs: Feb. 18-19, 2025
After the knockout playoff round draw, the teams who finish inside the top eight will still have four possible opponents.
For instance, 5th (Aston Villa) and 6th (Internazionale) would still be able to play any of 11th, 12th, 21st and 22nd.
Once the knockout playoff round is complete, the teams in 5th and 6th would have two possible opponents remaining, the winners of those ties.
The round of 16 draw then takes place on Friday, Feb. 21, when 5th and 6th would be drawn into opposite halves of the bracket — which would create a fixture against a winner of a knockout playoff round tie.
First legs: March 4-5, 2025
Second legs: March 11-12, 2025
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