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How Texas’ proposed map would affect the battle for the House: From the Politics Desk

August 5, 2025
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How Texas' proposed map would affect the battle for the House: From the Politics Desk
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Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Happy Tuesday! Thanks to Scott Bland for helming the ship while I was on vacation.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki breaks down how Donald Trump’s 2024 margins in Texas’ congressional districts would change under the GOP’s proposed map, and what that means for the 2026 race for the House majority. Plus, Shannon Pettypiece examines the fears that Trump is undermining the reliability of government data.

Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.

— Adam Wollner


How Texas’ proposed map would affect the battle for the House

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

The new congressional map proposed by Texas Republicans has yet to be enacted and may still be altered, but it makes clear the party’s intent to pick up five new seats from the state in next year’s midterms.

Under the proposal, three districts currently represented by Democrats would be transformed into Republican bastions. All three went decisively for Kamala Harris in last year’s election, but based on the new lines would have backed Donald Trump by double digits. There are also two Democrats currently representing districts that voted for Trump last year. Those districts would become even more pro-Trump under the GOP’s plan.

Overall, there wouldn’t be a single district in which the presidential contest was decided by single digits in Texas.

If enacted, a Republican gain of three seats from this plan seems almost automatic. But there would likely be suspense in South Texas, where the two Democrats targeted — Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez — would each have a fighting chance to hang on.

While this heavily Hispanic border region has historically been overwhelmingly Democratic, Trump made staggering inroads here in the last two elections. But locally, Democrats still hold most offices and retain a powerful infrastructure. It’s an open question whether this support for Trump will manifest itself in turnout for Republican candidates when the president himself isn’t on the ballot.

On paper, Cuellar has the better chance of surviving. He was re-elected by 5 points last year even as Trump carried his 28th District by 7 points. Under the GOP’s proposed lines, Trump’s margin would tick up to 10 points, a tougher slog for Cuellar but one that his 2024 performance suggests he can handle. Of course, Cuellar faces another form of political danger as well in the form of federal corruption charges. If he isn’t in the mix in 2026, his seat will become vastly harder for Democrats to keep.

As for Gonzalez, he held on to his seat by about 3 points last year, as Trump won the 34th District by 4 points. That Trump margin would swell to 10 points with the new GOP map, making Gonzalez an underdog — especially with Republicans recruiting a strong challenger. But if next year’s midterm environment is favorable to Democrats, Gonzalez would certainly be competitive, especially with Trump’s name absent from the ballot.

Nationally, Texas Republicans’ plan would increase the number of Democrats representing districts that voted for Trump last year to 16. And with Ohio Republicans poised to embark on their own redistricting effort, that number would likely rise further to 18 or 19. These added pick-up opportunities are crucial to the GOP’s chance of holding the House: A net-loss of just three seats would hand control to Democrats.

The latest on the Texas redistricting fight:

  • Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows quickly gaveled the chamber in and out of session today, lacking the minimum number of state lawmakers to move on to regular business after dozens of Democrats fled the state.
  • Appearing alongside Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and a group of Texas House Democrats, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said that his party is “not rolling over” to Trump and bringing “a knife to a knife fight.”
  • Pritzker said he would consider calling a special session to reopen Illinois’ congressional maps, where Democrats already control 14 of 17 seats.
  • GOP Sen. John Cornyn is urging the FBI to assist Texas law enforcement agencies in finding or arresting Democratic legislators who left the state.
  • Some Republicans representing competitive districts in blue states are speaking out against their party’s push to redraw congressional lines in Texas.

How Trump is reshaping government data

By Shannon Pettypiece

Meteorological data collected by some weather balloons has been halted. Statistics for HIV among transgender people were scrubbed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website. And basic public figures, like how many people work for the federal government, have been frozen or delayed for months.

Across the federal government, President Donald Trump has been wielding his influence over data used by researchers, economists and scientists, an effort that was playing out largely behind the scenes until Friday, when he fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The agency collects and publishes economic data, and Trump accused its former chief, Erika McEntarfer, of giving fake employment data last week showing a recent slowdown in the labor market.

“The numbers were rigged. Biden wasn’t doing well, he was doing poorly,” Trump said in an interview on CNBC, referring to the jobs numbers.

Presidents of both political parties often seek to spin government data to their benefit, cherry-picking numbers that put their agendas in the best light possible. But McEntarfer’s firing has drawn criticism from economists, Wall Street investors and even Republicans who are raising wider concerns about the continued reliability of government data once seen as the gold standard.

“We have to look somewhere for objective statistics. When the people providing the statistics are fired, it makes it much harder to make judgments that, you know, the statistics won’t be politicized,” Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said in an interview. “You can’t really make the numbers different or better by firing the people doing the counting.”

Read more from Shannon →


🗞️ Today’s other top stories

  • 🎤 Town hall dispatches: At an event with constituents, Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., was heckled over the Jeffrey Epstein files, Trump’s firing of the BLS commission and Medicaid cuts. And Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., said one of his staff members was “physically assaulted” during a town hall.
  • 📃 Epstein saga: The House committee investigating the Epstein case issued subpoenas to former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and several top former Justice Department officials for their testimony. Read more →
  • 🔁 2016 flashback: Attorney General Pam Bondi directed DOJ prosecutors to launch a grand jury investigation of whether Obama administration officials committed federal crimes when they assessed Russia’s actions during the 2016 election. Read more →
  • 🇮🇱 Middle East latest: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to push to “occupy all of the Gaza Strip” as ceasefire talks with Hamas flounder and the hunger crisis in the besieged Palestinian enclave spirals. Read more →
  • 👋 Hello again: Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer met with Trump at the White House for the third time this year. Read more →
  • ✉️ Return to sender: The Trump administration is officially ending the Elon Musk-led “5 things” email requirement for federal workers. Read more →
  • 🚶Take a walk: Trump made an unexpected appearance on the White House roof to survey new projects. Read more from the AP →
  • Follow live politics updates →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.




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