How the ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza is set to unfold, and why it’s so precarious

Israeli troops have pulled back to the edges of Gaza, the first hostages have been released and many Palestinians have returned to what remains of their homes in the first few days of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, stopping fighting for only the second time since the war began with the terror group’s October 7, 2023 cross-border onslaught.

If the deal’s implementation goes according to plan, there will be no fighting in Gaza for at least six weeks, and dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners will be freed while more aid flows in.

The question is if the ceasefire will survive beyond the first phase — and an appendix to the deal provided to The Associated Press reveals some of the tensions in it.

Extending the ceasefire depends on even more negotiations meant to begin soon and eventually tackling the tough issue of how Gaza will be governed, with Israel still demanding the elimination of Hamas.

Hanging over those talks is the possibility Israel could resume its campaign to destroy the terror group — even as dozens of hostages remain in its hands.

Here is a look at the plan and the major challenges ahead.

Israeli troops pull back and Palestinians return home

As part of Phase 1, Israeli troops have pulled back into a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders with Israel. According to the appendix, which AP has verified, that the buffer is 700 meters (about 0.4 mi) wide in most areas.

That has allowed displaced Palestinians to begin to return to their homes, many of which were destroyed or heavily damaged by Israel’s campaign.

But their return has been a complicated point in the negotiations. Israel long demanded it keep control over Palestinians’ movement to ensure Hamas does not move weapons back to northern Gaza close to Israeli communities.

Throughout the war, the Israeli military had barred Palestinians from returning to the north by severing Gaza along the Netzarim corridor, a belt that runs east to west across the strip where troops cleared out the Palestinian population and set up bases.

According to the appendix, Israel will start on Saturday allowing displaced Palestinians to return to the north without searches, but only on foot via the main north-south coastal road. In the coming weeks, it is supposed to open another route to foot traffic, without inspection.

A private company — the details of which are yet to be formally announced — will search Palestinians returning in vehicles to prevent military hardware from reaching the north, according to the appendix. The document says this will also start from Saturday, but it is still unclear how it will work.

The appendix was confirmed by multiple officials involved in the negotiations, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

Swapping hostages for Palestinian security prisoners

During the first phase, Hamas is set to free 33 hostages in exchange for Israel’s releasing up to 1,904 Palestinian security prisoners and detainees.

The first exchange took place Sunday with the release of three Israeli hostages and 90 Palestinian prisoners. By the end of the 42 days, all living women, children and older people held by the terror group should be freed.

Currently, some 91 hostages, alive and dead, remain captive inside Gaza, a mix of civilians, soldiers and foreigners. The military believes at least a third of them are dead.

The next exchange is set for Saturday. After that, if the deal does not collapse, there will be weekly releases.

The 33 include women, children, sick people and those over 50 — almost all civilians, but the deal also commits Hamas to freeing all living female soldiers in Phase 1. Hamas will release living hostages first, but could release some bodies if they don’t have enough living hostages in this category.

In exchange, Israel will free 30 Palestinian women, children or older people for each living civilian hostage freed. The deal says those released will include more than 110 Palestinians serving life sentences. For each female soldier freed, Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences.

Many of the prisoners who will be released were convicted of deadly attacks. Several Palestinian prisoners will be sent abroad or to Gaza, according to the deal, but it is unclear who this will apply to and which country will accept them.

According to the appendix, Israel will also release 1,000 people detained from Gaza since the war began, as long as they are not accused of involvement in the October 7, 2023, attack that started the war, when some 3,000 Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel from Gaza, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages, amid acts of brutality and sexual assault.

Dozens of male hostages, including soldiers, will remain captive in Gaza, pending the second phase.

The Philadelphi corridor

At the end of the first phase, Israel has also pledged to begin reducing its forces in the Philadelphi corridor, a strategic strip of territory along Gaza’s border with Egypt — and, according to the appendix, they will completely withdraw by Day 50. Israel’s demand to maintain a long-term presence in the corridor while Hamas demanded a full withdrawal was one of the knottiest issues in the ceasefire negotiations.

At the same time, the document states that the Rafah Crossing into Egypt will be reopened to allow wounded and sick Palestinians — including a few dozen wounded fighters, whose exit would have to be approved by Israel and Egypt — to be evacuated for treatment, but only when all the female hostages have been released, including female soldiers.

An Israeli official told the AP that Israeli troops will not be drawn down in Gaza during the initial 42 days, only redistributed. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door talks, also said that if it does reach a deal with Hamas on Phase 2 that meets Israel’s war aims, which include the full dismantling of the terror group, Israel will stay in the corridor.

Humanitarian aid

In the first phase, aid to Gaza is ramping up to hundreds of trucks a day of food, medicine, building supplies and fuel to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. This already has begun.

The need is great. Malnutrition and diseases are rampant among Palestinians, while hospitals have been damaged and are short of supplies.

Implementation, however, could bring problems.

Even before the war, Israel restricted the entry of some equipment, arguing it could be used for military purposes by Hamas. Further complicating matters, Israel’s government is still committed to its plan to ban UNRWA — the UN agency that is the main distributor of aid in Gaza — from operating and to cut all ties between the agency and the Israeli government.

The ban came following revelations that many of the agency’s employees were Hamas fighters, and that a handful even participated in the October 7 attack.

Beyond Phase 1

Phase 2’s broad outlines are laid out in the deal: All remaining hostages are to be released in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a “sustainable calm.”

But that seemingly basic exchange opens up much bigger issues.

Israel has said it won’t agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas’s military and political capabilities are eliminated. Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from Gaza.

So both sides will have to agree to a plan for governing Gaza. Hamas has said it would be willing to step aside, but it may still seek a hand in any future government, which Israel has vehemently rejected. And it is unlikely to give up its weapons. Israel has also rejected the alternative of having the Palestinian Authority govern Gaza.

If all sides reach the third phase, it is likely to be less contentious: The bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan in Gaza, but who will pay for it also remains unclear.