TikTok’s days in the US could be numbered. The social media platform is a short time away from a legal deadline that will require Apple and Google to remove the software from their respective app stores, effectively banning it across the country.
There are still a few ways TikTok could wriggle out of its do-or-die predicament. The Supreme Court could rule that the law banning the app is unconstitutional, though, as Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Keenan pointed out, the justices seem to be skeptical of that argument.
The company could also appeal to the incoming Trump administration to take some kind of action to save it, and it appears to be doing so already. TikTok CEO Shou Chew is set to attend Trump’s inauguration, the Wall Street Journal reports.
There’s also no clear-cut plan as to what the president-elect could do to put the brakes on an act of Congress. That’s not to say all hope is lost for TikTok, but its future is certainly murkier than ever.
Turning off TikTok could, however, prove to be a boon for the company’s biggest competitors. After gaining some 170 million users in the US, TikTok’s rivals are licking their chops at the prospect of an uptick in eyeballs heading their way as both users and advertisers look to alternatives.
The biggest winner would also be one of TikTok’s long-term critics, Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg. In particular, Instagram could see a sizable uptick in advertiser dollars if TikTok bites the dust.
“In general, it’s a good thing for Meta,” William Blair research analyst Ralph Schackart told Yahoo Finance. “We estimate in a note potentially 60% to 70% of TikTok spend could move to Instagram and it monetizes at around 3x the rate of TikTok.”
Meta has been battling TikTok for years, with Zuckerberg at varying times raising the specter of Chinese technological dominance over the US and threats to free speech. Zuckerberg also rolled out Instagram and Facebook’s Reels feature, a short-form video offering similar to TikTok, to combat the rival service and bring users back to his platforms.
If TikTok closes up shop, users will undoubtedly flock to Meta’s apps, increasing the number of people using the services and the amount of time they spend on them — which in turn would drive increased advertising revenue.
YouTube and its Shorts platform should also gain from TikTok’s loss. According to Morgan Stanley managing director Brian Nowak, every 10% of the time users would have spent on TikTok that goes to YouTube would add $400 million to $750 million in ad revenue to the video platform’s sales.
