After a stunning day of rapid intensification, Hurricane Erick made landfall in a sparsely populated area just east of Punta Maldonado near the border of Oaxaca and Guerrero states on Mexico’s southern Pacific coast around 8 a.m. EST on Thursday, June 19. Erick’s top sustained winds at that time were estimated by the National Hurricane Center at 125 mph, making it a category 3 landfall.
There were no initial reports of major damage from Erick. Several small towns along the far western coast of Oaxaca may have experienced high winds and scattered damage as Erick approached the coast. The closest sizable community to Erick’s track was the Pinotepa Nacional area (pop. 56,000), which is located in far southwest Oaxaca state about 600 feet above sea level and about 15 miles from the coast. Erick’s hurricane-force winds extended only about 15 miles from its center, so peak winds at Pinotepa Nacional (where power outages and some damage occurred) likely reached no more than minimal hurricane strength.
As of 2 p.m. EDT Thursday, Erick had weakened to minimal hurricane status, with top sustained winds of 75 mph. Rapid weakening will continue and Erick is predicted to dissipate on Thursday night. A focused area of intense rainfall moved onshore near Erick’s center, but most of the storm’s heaviest rains remained offshore. Very localized totals of up to 16 inches remained possible Thursday near the fast-weakening center of Erick, with flash flooding and landslides still a threat.
Data from reconnaissance aircraft on Wednesday evening showed that Erick had two concentric rings of maximum wind, suggesting it was entering an eyewall replacement cycle that could have hindered further strengthening. But the storm quickly reconsolidated and tightened, allowing it to again intensify rapidly. Erick peaked overnight at Cat 4 strength, with top winds estimated at 145 mph at 11:45 p.m. EST, less than a day after it was a tropical storm. This puts Erick among the fastest-intensifying hurricanes on record, as it gained 80 knots (92 mph) of strength in a 24-hour period.
Even more impressive, Erick is the first storm in either the Eastern Pacific or Atlantic known to have made landfall as a major hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger) prior to the summer solstice. The only other major landfall on record during the first half of any year is Cat 3 Audrey, which struck Louisiana in catastrophic fashion on June 27, 1957. The reliable database extends back to 1971 for the Eastern Pacific and 1851 for the Atlantic.
Most hurricanes in Erick’s location end up staying offshore, especially this early in the season. In fact, no major hurricanes have made landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coast during June and July in modern records (see Fig. 1). Even as late as August, only one major landfall has occurred on the Pacific side of Mexico: Hurricane Kiko, which struck the southernmost Baja Peninsula at Category 3 strength on Aug. 27, 1989. A weaker analog for Erick would be Hurricane Carlotta (not shown in Fig. 1), which moved onto the coast of western Oaxaca on June 16, 2012, with Category 2 sustained winds of 105 mph (169 km/h).
Over the past 75 years, 16 hurricanes have made landfall in Mexico before July, with only three striking at Category 2 intensity, the last time being in late May 2022 when Hurricane Agatha struck the small coastal town of Puerto Ángel, which was also under a hurricane warning for Erick (h/t to Michael Lowry for this stat).
Comparison with devastating Hurricane John of 2024
With the unusual onshore angle of its track, Erick bears some resemblance to last year’s Hurricane John, which also took an uncommonly sharp bearing into the Pacific coast east of Acapulco. After it rapidly intensified while moving almost due north, John stormed into eastern Guerrero state on the night of Sept. 24 with Category 3 winds of 105 mph (169 km/h). Over the next three-plus days, John angled west, moved offshore, and then came back for an unusual second landfall as a tropical storm in far western Guerrero state. Along the way, it dumped widespread rains of 10 to 20 inches (25-51 cm) and even higher localized amounts. John caused 29 deaths and inflicted damage estimated by Gallagher Re at $2.45 billion. According to EM-DAT, only three other eastern Pacific hurricanes have caused more damage in inflation-adjusted dollars in Mexico: Otis (2023, $12 billion); Manuel (2013, $5.6 billion); and Odile (2014, $3.2 billion).
On the heels of Otis and John, Erick is now the third storm in less than three years to strike Mexico’s southern Pacific coast after having rapidly intensified from tropical-storm to major-hurricane status in less than 24 hours.
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