Starbucks (SBUX 0.88%) hired a new CEO, Brian Niccol, who started last September. He was brought on board to reinvigorate sales growth, particularly in the U.S. and China, its two largest markets.
Just before Niccol took over, Starbucks’ same-store sales (comps) for the fiscal fourth-quarter of 2024 (that ended on Sep. 29, 2024) had dropped 7%. U.S. and China experienced comp declines of 6% and 14%, respectively. The board of directors and shareholders clearly weren’t happy with this performance, leading to Niccol’s hire.
To fully appreciate where Starbucks stands, it’s instructive to look at the stock’s historical performance. How much would a $5,000 investment made five years ago be worth today?
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Your investment dollars
Starbucks’ shares have been volatile over the last five years,. The price increased 5.7% over this span that ended on April 17. After including dividends, the stock produced a total return of 17.7%. That means your $5,000 investment would be worth about $5,285 today. With dividends reinvested, the same investment would be worth $5,886.Â
It’s useful to compare this performance to a passive index, such as the popular S&P 500. That index returned over 84% during this same time span. Hence, that same $5,000 would have been worth over $9,180.
Starbucks’ shares don’t sell at a discount compared to the S&P 500. Both have price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26. The stock’s P/E multiple is slightly lower than its 10-year median of 30.
Obviously, it’s still early in CEO Niccol’s tenure, but fiscal first-quarter comps for restaurants in the U.S. market fell 4%,, and comps fell 6% in China.
Niccol may execute his plan and rejuvenate sales and profit growth. However, that’s a big ask, and many retailers fail to turn around their fortunes. Given the stock’s current valuation, it’s not one I’d buy right now.
