The import tariffs the nation’s 47th President, through executive action, imposed (the imposing of said tariffs much to the chagrin of an overwhelming majority of North Americans, or so it would appear), will likely result in the lowering of emissions in the air the countries of Canada, Mexico and the United States commonly share.
How so?
Let me count the ways
For starters, American consumers will undoubtedly pay more for imports of products and materials coming across the respective northern and southern borders with Canada and Mexico. That could — and most likely will — have a countervailing effect and, that is, American consumers steering clear of purchasing affected items. This should translate into fewer intercontinental shipments being made, whether by truck, train or plane. Which means that more and more of our imported goods and materials will come from other countries. Via that action, there will be a shifting in terms of what products and materials will be coming from what countries and how those goods and materials will arrive at our sea- and airports. This could cause emissions across the globe to climb as more aviation and high-seas movements will likely increase.
In the U.S., meanwhile, because of the redistribution in the way cargo will be moved, this doesn’t necessarily translate into more emissions being generated domestically. It theoretically should produce a similar effect to that which has resulted from the application of the congestion-pricing scheme in New York City. Due to roadway movements resulting in New York City’s Central Business District below 60th Avenue being fewer, air emissions there and in other parts of city have been lowered. By virtue of that, emissions in neighboring states like Connecticut and New Jersey could very well have experienced a slight increase on account of a change in traffic patterns that has doubtless taken place as a result there.
Secondly, such action will no doubt prompt American purchasers to more and more shop (and buy) local, further reducing the amount of cross-border cargo truck, train and plane traffic. Shopping (and buying) locally means that the costs coupled to, for example, produce grown and purchased locally, tend to be less. And locally grown and manufactured items, by virtue of their not needing to be transported over great distances, and once these arrive at the commercial and retail establishments where they are received and then placed on store shelves for sale, this means less in the way of fuel being consumed in getting said items to market. And, by virtue of that, fewer emissions will be pumped or dumped (depending how you look at it) into the atmosphere and, by extension, fewer as well entering human and animal respiratory systems alike.
I may get an earful by my saying so, but this might not necessarily be a bad thing.
That being said, increases in drilling, refining, manufacturing, shipping and warehousing activity internally, could potentially be in the offing which, could, in a manner of speaking, throw a wrench in all of this, meaning more in the way of emissions being generated domestically. Should such become reality, such could negate any emissions-savings that might come about indirectly from tariffs being put into effect. So, there’s that.
Bottom line is it’ll be a wait-and-see-game in terms of how this will all play out.
Updated: Feb. 2, 2025 at 11:57 a.m. PST.
Above and corresponding, connected home-page-featured images: NOAA
— Alan Kandel
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