He announced the creation of a Department of External Revenue. This would collect high tariffs from imports to help build America. No longer, he said, would America cut tariffs to help others prosper, he would force others to pay to make America prosper. This portends an era of high tariffs, retaliation from others, and trade wars. That will hit world trade and growth everywhere, including in India. He promised to “Make in America and Hire in America”. That will hit Indian H-1B visa seekers and disrupt dollar remittances from the US to India.
Not for a century has an American president made such a frankly imperialist speech. He wanted to follow in the footsteps of President William Mckinley (1897-01), who started the Spanish American War of 1898 on a bogus excuse, grabbed Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines from Spain, and annexed Hawaii as well. Mckinley also levied high protectionist tariffs to promote American manufacturing.
Recalling how America had won the West, Trump talked of American “Manifest Destiny” in colonising Mars. “Manifest Destiny” was the 19th century racist theory justifying white conquest and mass slaughter of native Americans-this was simply destiny, you see.
The phrase justifies conquest to Make America Great Again.So Trump declared he would take over the Panama Canal, which had been built by the US. He said Panama had given control of the canal to China, creating a security threat. This was a brazen falsehood. The canal is controlled entirely by Panama, though the ports at the two ends are leased to a Chinese company. He also renamed the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.To stop the “invasion” of America by immigrants, he declared a national emergency on the southern border with Mexico. He will reinstate the “stay in Mexico” policy for asylum seekers. He aims to deport 11 million illegal migrants, including thousands of Indians. This will be challenged in court and it is unclear how he can identify or detain so many. But his intent touches a strong American chord. He will end the right of anybody born in the US to citizenship, aiming to keep America white.
He declared a National Energy Emergency. Drill, baby, drill is his motto. He will lift all curbs on oil and gas exploration, fill US strategic reserves, and open new port terminals to make his country the biggest exporter of oil and gas. This should help reduce prices, something that will be beneficial for India. But strict sanctions will make it tougher for India to buy cheap oil from Russia and Iran.
He will end diversity programs. Sneering at “woke” norms, he said the US will now have only two genders, male and female. Transgenders will cease to exist on paper.
Even as he withdraws from the US role of leader of the free world, he says he will be a global peacemaker. His tough stance certainly helped clinch the ceasefire in Gaza. He will aim for a deal in Ukraine which allows Russia to most of its conquests.
What about the impact on India?
We will be hit by high tariffs. Trump has called India a “tariff king” and will demand India slash its own tariffs. Higher US tariffs will provoke retaliation by others and a general trade war. Slowing world trade and growth will slow India’s too. H-1B visas will become very difficult to obtain. Trump will be happy to sell India more arms, oil and gas, and agricultural products. But he will seek to curb Indian exports to the US. He wants to “do deals” with other countries, meaning he will use his economic might to bully others into trade pacts favourable to the US.
This is not a happy prospect for India.
