India and Pakistan were on the edge of a full-scale war in early May, following a deadly terrorist attack at Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22 in which 26 people, mostly tourists, were killed and over a dozen others injured.
The military clashes between the two nuclear-armed countries, which have a history of volatile relations, ended with a ceasefire on May 10. While the military confrontation between India and Pakistan has ended for now, tensions remain. The non-kinetic measures taken by India and Pakistan against each other following the Pahalgam attack – particularly India’s decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty “in abeyance” until “Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,” and the possibility of more terror attacks inside Indian territory – could make limited military confrontation between them more frequent.
In his address to the nation on May 12, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India would not hesitate to use force against terror camps in Pakistan. It is a “new normal,” he said, adding that any future terror attack on Indian territory will be considered an “act of war” against New Delhi. In subsequent speeches Modi said that Operation Sindoor, the military strikes that India launched on the night of May 6-7, “is not over yet” and that if the strikes on that night were carried out by the Indian Armed Forces, the operation going forward “will move …with the strength of the people.” Such statements suggest that Indian anger with Pakistan has not reduced and it is not ready to engage with Islamabad at the diplomatic level just yet. Indeed, any terror-related incident in Indian territory could trigger kinetic action again between the two countries.
India and Pakistan have several issues of dispute that have remained unsettled for decades. The two fought wars in 1947-48, 1965, 1971, and 1999 and have engaged in countless skirmishes. They have engaged in talks as well, but the question of Jammu and Kashmir has not been settled yet. Both sides claim the territory of the former princely state in its entirety, which is at present under Indian, Pakistani, and Chinese control. Since the late 1980s, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence has been fighting a proxy war against India in J&K by sending in trained terrorists and militants to carry out terror attacks. India accuses Pakistan of masterminding terrorism in J&K and other parts of India. Meanwhile, the Pakistani government claims that it has played a leading role in the war on terror, even sacrificing over 90,000 Pakistani lives. It has incurred losses of over $152 billion as well, it claims. Pakistan also accuses India of inciting violence and extending support to insurgents and terror groups in Balochistan province.
Adding to the tensions over the J&K question is the IWT issue. Although the treaty managed to hold for 64 plus years, India’s unilateral suspension of the IWT in the wake of the Pahalgam attack injects new uncertainty in an already fraught situation.
Under the Indus Waters Treaty, water from three “eastern” rivers – the Sutlej, Ravi and Beas – was allocated to India, while water from the “western rivers” – the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus – was given to Pakistan with limited use to India. As the upper riparian state, India wields enormous power over the flow of waters of this river, and its decision to suspend the IWT impacts the very survival of Pakistan.
Although India does not have the required hydro structures to immediately stop the natural flow of water to Pakistan, its suspension of its obligations under the provisions of the IWT would impact the lower riparian state. It is estimated that around 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture and a quarter of its economy rely on the western rivers. Further, one-third of Pakistan’s electricity comes from hydropower. Pakistan is a water-stressed country, with per capita water availability in 2025 around 800 cubic metres.
How seriously Pakistan views the suspension of the IWT is evident from the statement it issued following the Indian decision. Pakistan’s Foreign Office slammed India’s weaponizing of water, “a shared, treaty-bound resource.” Announcing its counter-measures, Pakistan said that “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”
Later, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said: “Do not dictate us. Water is our red line; don’t even think about diverting our water. Yes, water and blood do not flow together. You have also hit our Neelum-Jhelum water project. If the damage was severe, we could have destroyed your major dams, including Baglihar Dam.” In an interview with Arab News, Director General of the Inter Services Public Relations Lt .General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry threatened India with “generational consequences” over the IWT. He also said that the “consequences” of the Pakistani action would be so devastating that it would take “years and decades” to fight its impact.
Since the ceasefire, India and Pakistan have continued to put forward their opposing viewpoints on Kashmir, the Pahalgam attack, and the military strikes that followed. While Pakistan is showing willingness to talk with India, the Indian leadership, as noted above, remains, at least now, not in the mood to engage in negotiations with Islamabad. India-Pakistan relations have touched a new low with a huge trust deficit defining their relationship. In such a hostile environment, an improvement in bilateral ties is unlikely anytime soon.
There are examples of non-friendly countries cooperating on issues of mutual interest. India and China are an example. Despite several differences, with even their armed forces clashing, India and China have continued to trade. However, the India-Pakistan case is different as relations have completely broken down. Their relationship continues to be underpinned by the Partition-related communal violence, religious differences, and “hatred.”
Water from shared rivers, which flows from India to Pakistan and sustains lives and livelihoods in the latter, provided the basis of some bilateral cooperation for decades. That vital resource has now turned into a cause of confrontation between the two countries. The coming months and years could see an escalation in bilateral tensions, should India act on its suspension of the IWT.
