NEW DELHI – Come August, 10 scientists will set sail on India’s first oceanographic expedition to the eastern part of the chilly Greenland Sea as the South Asian country intensifies its focus on the Arctic region.
The researchers will gather information and conduct tests during the 15-day study aboard a vessel rented from Sweden to gauge how the warming of the Arctic affects monsoon rainfall in India, halfway around the world, as suggested by an increasing body of research.
The mission takes place more than a year after India’s first winter scientific expedition to the region. Separately, since 2023, scientists have conducted two study trips in the Canadian High Arctic region to learn about microorganisms and viruses in the permafrost that could pose a health risk to humans.
India has a growing confluence of scientific, commercial and strategic plans to boost its presence in the Arctic and ensure that it does not get sidelined amid the jostle for influence among Russia, the US and China.
By ramping up its stake in the Arctic through more scientific expeditions, India hopes to elevate its standing as a responsible global power.
Scientific research aimed at contributing to global efforts in addressing climate change is one pillar of India’s Arctic policy, complementing its strategic and commercial interests.
At the same time, melting Arctic sea ice is opening trade routes and creating possibilities for resource exploration, prompting countries such as Russia, Canada and Denmark to expand claims for rights over the seabed, which is believed to contain oil, natural gas and critical minerals.
With US President Donald Trump asserting claims over the strategically important and resource-rich Greenland – an autonomous territory of Denmark and near the Northern Sea Route – the power play is expected to intensify.
Seeking a strategic stake
The Northern Sea Route, which runs along the northern coast of Russia through the Arctic Ocean, is the shortest sea route linking Europe to Asia. But thick sea ice made it inaccessible for much of the year – though that is now changing due to global warming.
China, which calls itself a “near Arctic” state, plans to develop its Polar Silk Road to establish new sea shipping routes through the Arctic Ocean while also securing access to natural resources.
Professor D. Suba Chandran, dean of the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bengaluru, said: “India, as a growing power, has to have a global stake… If you want to be in the polar region as an Arctic power, you have to be in the Arctic.”
The US Geological Survey has assessed that the Arctic contains 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of undiscovered natural gas. These resources will become more accessible as the ice melts.
For energy-deficient India, the region holds the promise of energy supplies.
“For this, we need to step up engagement with Russia and invest in gas and oil enterprises,” said Mr Anurag Bisen, a veteran Indian Navy submariner and senior fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation – a New Delhi-based think-tank.
India has been in talks with Russia, with which it has longstanding ties, to train Indian sailors for polar navigation and to develop joint projects in Arctic shipbuilding.
Mr Bisen said India could boost its oil and gas explorations in Russia, which is estimated to account for 60 per cent of potential Arctic oil and gas resources.
India is also looking to develop a shipping route from Chennai to Vladivostok in eastern Russia and to the Northern Sea Route. This would translate to time, fuel and security cost savings for sending goods between India and Europe.
The Chennai-Vladivostok route would reduce shipping time from 35 days to 20 days compared with the current route from Mumbai to St Petersburg.
“The melting of the ice is not a positive development,” said a senior government official, who did not want to be named. “But it is also an opportunity for us to create an alternative shipping corridor to access Europe and beyond.”
India’s climate impetus
Major portions of the Arctic Ocean warmed at least four times as fast as the global average between 1979 and 2021, according to an article in the Nature journal.
Studies have found that the melting Arctic sea ice influences atmospheric and oceanic conditions, which in turn impact monsoon systems in other parts of the world.
Indian scientists are adding to the body of research on understanding how and why atmospheric and oceanic properties change as the ice melts, said a government release on Feb 13.
Understanding this connection is India’s top scientific imperative, Dr Thamban Meloth, director at the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR), told The Straits Times.
A 2023 research paper by NCPOR, which is responsible for India’s scientific activities in the polar regions, found that melting sea ice in the central Arctic led to lower rainfall in the western and southern peninsular India but more rain over north-western and central regions.
Monsoon rains are a critical lifeline for India, replenishing groundwater and rain-fed rivers and providing 70 per cent of the country’s agricultural water needs. Deficient rains have a far-reaching impact on the economy, including pushing up food prices.
“This (connection between the melting sea ice and the Indian monsoons) is the main theme running through many of our large projects, and it is the scientific reason for why we want to study the Arctic,” Dr Meloth said, adding that “climate change is reaching its peak”.
At India’s permanent Arctic research station, Indian scientists are also carrying out a range of other experiments, from checking for Perfluoroalkoxy, or PFA, plastic – known as forever chemicals – in the Arctic to studying the polar nights and retreating ice sheets.
Still, for Indian scientists, unused to sub-zero temperatures, carrying out experiments during the winter is not always easy.
“Coming from a tropical country like India, it took us a couple of days to get used to the cold and snowy winter Arctic conditions,” said research scientist Girish B. S. at Raman Research Institute, who was part of India’s first winter expedition to the Arctic from Dec 21, 2023, to Jan 15, 2024.
Arctic research during the winter months has helped fill gaps in ongoing research, the scientists say.
India’s Arctic history
India’s first scientific expedition to the Arctic was in 2007 to study microbiology and understand the structure and evolution of the atmosphere.
A year later, India set up its first Arctic research base, Himadri, in Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago that lies at the convergence of the Arctic Ocean with the Atlantic Ocean.
India was only the second developing country after China to do so and remains one of under a dozen countries – including South Korea and Japan – running research stations.
More than 200 scientific research publications have emerged from the Indian Arctic programme.
In 2013, India joined Singapore along with China, Japan, South Korea and Italy to be awarded observer status by the Arctic Council – an intergovernmental forum that promotes cooperation and coordination between Arctic states, indigenous peoples, and other Arctic inhabitants. Observer status is granted to non-Arctic countries.
In 2022, India released its Arctic policy, which seeks closer economic cooperation with the Arctic countries, and takes steps in anticipation of changes in global shipping routes triggered by the melting ice, among other aims.
But “a substantive engagement in the Arctic is yet to be a reality”, said Vivekananda International Foundation’s Mr Bisen. “We have a long way to go.”
He said India needs to boost its investments in the Arctic, where China has put in an estimated US$90 billion (S$120.6 billion) in infrastructure and other projects in the energy and minerals sectors above the Arctic circle. India’s current investment in Russia stands at US$15 billion in oil and gas projects.
India also needs to launch more scientific expeditions and build an ice-breaking research vessel, he said, adding that it is critical for India to continue expanding its scientific research given the impact of climate change in the Arctic on India.
“It’s like an existential issue.”
- Nirmala Ganapathy is India bureau chief at The Straits Times. She is based in New Delhi and writes about India’s foreign policy and politics.
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