India-U.S. relations are cozy. Will Trump’s immigration plans spoil the friendship?

As Marco Rubio, the freshly sworn-in U.S. secretary of state, gripped the Indian foreign minister’s hand for a photo op last Tuesday, the symbolism was clear. 

It came ahead of Rubio’s very first bilateral meeting on his first day in office, suggesting the diplomatic relationship between the U.S. and India is a top priority for both sides.

Even more striking was Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s seat in the front row of Donald Trump’s intimate inauguration ceremony last week, which was moved indoors because of the cold weather hitting Washington. 

“The special envoy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is naturally treated very well,” said Jaishankar, the Indian foreign minister, with a smile at a press conference on Thursday when asked about his ringside seat.

He also said after his meetings in D.C. that it was “very clear” the Trump administration is “prioritizing the bilateral relationship” with India.

Indian officials have been gearing up for the new U.S. administration for months, and despite obvious points of friction, such as immigration and trade, the view from New Delhi has been cautiously optimistic. 

But Trump’s threat to crack down hard on illegal immigration and force mass deportations is causing uncertainty, with high potential for political ramifications in India. 

The country is one of the top sources of undocumented immigrants to the United States. According to the Pew Research Center’s latest estimates, 725,000 Indians live illegally in the U.S., making immigrants from India third on the list, behind Mexico and El Salvador.

On Monday, Trump spoke with India’s prime minister, in what the White House called a “productive” call, with the  president later telling reporters India will “do what’s right” when it comes to taking back those living illegally in the U.S.

Analysts say Indian officials successfully navigated a tricky post-inauguration week that not only saw Trump sign a flurry of executive orders centered on illegal immigration, but continue to threaten steep tariffs. 

“I’m struck by how well I think India has played its hand,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the D.C.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

“They’re doing and saying the right things insofar as this president is concerned,” Vaishnav said, calling the Indian government’s approach “proactive.”

He pointed to reports that India will repatriate 18,000 Indians living illegally in the United States to placate Trump, with sources telling Bloomberg that New Delhi is keen to show a willingness to work with the new administration to avoid a trade war. 

The Indian government did not confirm those exact numbers, but officials have repeatedly said the country is open to facilitating the return of undocumented immigrants once verifications have been made. 

“We are against illegal immigration,” said Randhir Jaiswal, the spokesperson for India’s foreign ministry. “We have continuous dialogue on this matter with the United States,” he said. “And the idea behind that is to create more avenues for legal migration.”  

Many Indians enter the U.S. legally but then overstay after their visas expire, while others cross the border illegally from Canada or Mexico. 

Trying to ‘get on his good side’

There are also media reports the Modi government is considering other measures to appease the new president, from importing more U.S. products from Republican red or swing states to reducing tariffs on items such as bourbon and pecans.

Trump has long seen India’s high import taxes and protectionist streak as problematic, and any new tariffs could cripple the South Asian country’s growing economy. 

“I don’t think the mood in Delhi is to engage in a tit-for-tat exchange [on trade],” Vaishnav said. “They feel that by letting Trump get some quick wins on the board, by making some pretty minor concessions, they can try to get on his good side.” 

Modi also has a close personal connection with Trump, with the Indian prime minister calling him “my dear friend” as he congratulated the new president on being sworn in for a second term. 

India’s prime minister will visit the U.S. sometime in February, Trump has confirmed. 

A key goal for India is to protect the status of the H1B visa for skilled migrants to the United States, which is generally used for those in tech or engineering and an important path for many Indian workers searching for better opportunities.

There is currently a heated debate among the various factions of Trump’s party on the issue, with some hard-line nationalist Republicans intimating the visas for skilled workers are taking good jobs away from Americans. 

The China factor 

Another concern for India is how much Trump’s agenda on China might change.  

Countering Chinese aggression is the main reason India-U.S. ties have deepened in recent years, and the Biden administration made distinct efforts to foster the relationship. Even allegations of an attempted extrajudicial killing on American soil, and a subsequent court case, haven’t hampered the tighter relationship between the two countries. 

In a sign that that closeness would continue under the new president, Rubio brought together the foreign ministers of the informal diplomatic alliance known as the Quad — the U.S., India, Japan and Australia — on his first day in office. The Quad has grown in significance in recent years as a means to block Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. 

The fact that the meeting happened so quickly was seen as a win by Jaishankar, who told reporters he got the “strong sense” the Trump administration wants to take the Quad further and intensify its activities, which is also something New Delhi would like to do.

Another plus for India is that the majority of Trump’s team, including Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, are known as “either India-friendly or passionate China hawks — a landscape fertile for further progress,” wrote Seema Sirohi, a journalist and author of Friends with Benefits: the India-U.S. Story. 

According to Sirohi, the India-U.S. relationship has “entered a comfortable space where roadblocks are mainly sideshows.”

But there is still fear among Indian policymakers about Trump’s unpredictability and whether his admiration of strongmen — which extends to both Modi and China’s Xi Jinping — could lead the U.S. president to attempt a rapprochement with China.

“They don’t seem as nervous about Trump. They are much more nervous about someone like Elon Musk, who has massive business interests in China and also seems to have the president’s ear,” said Vaishnav. 

“I think that sends shivers down the spine of diplomats in India.” 

New Delhi downplayed any nervous anticipation in the months leading up to Trump’s inauguration, with Jaishankar and other officials indicating they were confident they can navigate the complexities of the new administration. 

Shortly after the election last fall, Jaishankar told reporters, “I know, today, a lot of countries are nervous about the U.S. Let’s be honest about it: We are not one of them.”

Vaishnav said while some of that may be overconfidence, he believes Indian officials are clinging to the fact that India is not on Trump’s list of so-called “problem countries.”  

“There’s a sense that this is not an administration that’s come in to teach India a lesson,” he said. “And I think that’s giving [Indian policymakers] some consolation at the moment.”