Inside the Iraqi factions’ decision to keep out of Syria

Iraq’s Shia forces, including major Iranian-affiliated armed factions, have unanimously decided not to send fighters to Syria to defend Bashar al-Assad from the rebel advance, officials and commanders told Middle East Eye.

Last week, Syrian rebels led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham launched an offensive on Assad’s forces, seizing the major cities of Aleppo and Hama in a matter of days.

The advance, which is now bearing down on Homs, has greatly concerned Iraqi leaders, who consider Iraq’s security as inextricably linked to Syria’s.

Baghdad fears a repeat of 2014, when Islamic State group fighters swept into northern and western Iraq from Syria, killing and displacing tens of thousands of people.

It took Iraqi forces four years and the backing of a US-led international coalition to liberate scores of towns and cities.

Since HTS launched its offensive, Iraq’s security, military and political authorities have been on high alert. 

Tens of thousands of border guards, soldiers and members of the Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitaries have been deployed along the Syrian border to tighten control and prevent infiltration, military sources said.

Meanwhile, in every Iraqi province authorities are carrying out strict inspections of foreign arrivals and residents, particularly Syrians.

Thousands of Syrians who do not have valid visas have been arrested, especially in Karbala and Najaf provinces, local security sources told MEE.

Denied reinforcements

Since the Syrian war broke out in 2011, Assad has relied on members of the Axis of Resistance alliance of countries and groups to keep him in power. 

Iranian-backed paramilitaries from Iraq and Lebanon’s Hezbollah played an integral part in pushing back the rebels, who they said were endangering important Shia religious sites. 

‘This is a trap. The Israelis and their allies are trying to lure us into Syria so they can hit us there without consequences’

– Iraqi Shia commander

A few hundred Iraqi fighters remain in Syria, mostly deployed in the far east and occasionally the target of Israeli air strikes.

Assad himself has not formally asked the Iraqi government to send military reinforcements. 

But he expressed the desire for assistance during a meeting with Hashd al-Shaabi leader Falih al-Fayadh, who made unannounced visits to Syria and Turkey as an envoy of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani earlier this week. 

Two senior Iraqi officials familiar with the details of the trip told MEE that Fayadh was dispatched to Damascus and Ankara, which supports the Syrian opposition, “in an attempt to bring the two sides closer together”.

However, Fayadh’s mediation did not yield results “as Assad refused to make any concessions”, the officials said. The Syrian president’s request for military reinforcements was denied.

Two days later, the Iraqi Shia armed factions received a request from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officer responsible for Syria to send fighters to Syria’s north and support Assad’s troops, commanders of Iranian-backed paramilitary groups told MEE. 

The Coordination Council of the Iraqi Resistance, which consists of representatives of the seven major Shia armed factions, including Kataeb Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Badr Organisation, met in Baghdad and “unanimously” rejected the request.

“This is a trap. The Israelis and their allies are trying to lure us into Syria so they can hit us there without consequences,” a commander told MEE. 

“The Israelis have a vendetta against us but they are under pressure to not hit us in Iraq. The alternative is Syria after the ceasefire in Lebanon,” he added. 

“This way they can besiege Hezbollah in Lebanon and hit the Axis of Resistance factions in Syria with one stone.”

Under pressure

Since Iraqi armed groups stepped up attacks on Israel in September in response to its wars on Gaza and Lebanon, Iraq has been under extreme international and regional pressure.

Israel has directly threatened to attack Iraq on several occasions over the past three months.

Late last month, the Iraqi government received an official letter from Israel delivered by the ambassador of a western country, which MEE has not named for security reasons.

It included explicit threats to strike several targets in Iraqi territory “if the attacks emanating from Iraq continued”, senior officials familiar with the letter told MEE.

The letter did not include details about where or who Israel would strike, but the Iraqi government identified 65 potential military and civilian targets, including commanders of armed factions, ports and airports, officials said.

In response, Sudani met with leaders of the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shia parties that dominates the government, to present the letter and discuss the options available to avert an attack.

The leaders of the Coordination Framework suggested sending representatives to “brief the commanders of the armed factions and explain the risks”, one of the alliance’s leaders told MEE.

“The commanders of the factions responded to us… and the decision was made to continue providing media, political and relief support to Lebanon and Gaza while stopping the attacks,” the leader said.

“This same decision was extended to Syria,” he added.

“The official and unofficial decision of Iraq this time is that we will not be part of the war to defend the Assad government, but we will defend ourselves and our country no matter what the cost, but from inside Iraqi territory.”

‘Assad is arrogant and disconnected from reality. He has not made any concessions to his people over the past years and has not sought to resolve the crisis’

– Iraqi armed faction source

Sudani himself is facing mounting internal pressure over an investigation into allegations his aides and advisors spied on senior officials and politicians and solicited bribes.

Making sure his country avoids sliding into regional conflicts will help ease that pressure.

He communicates almost daily with Assad, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Russian officials, several other regional leaders, and western and Arab ambassadors “in an attempt to rally positions and dismantle the crisis”, a member of Sudani’s team told MEE.

The source confirmed that Iraq’s Shia forces had “unanimously” decided to help Assad politically, diplomatically, and with intelligence and even humanitarian aid, but they will not send combat troops to Syria.

Speaking to parliament on Wednesday, Sudani told MPs: “We will not take a hasty decision that could affect our entire situation.”

Other assistance

It is not clear whether the armed factions’ decision to stay out of the battles in Syria is tactical or strategic, and it is also too early to say that it is a final decision, although all the commanders have informed their fighters not to travel there.

Some officials and faction commanders told MEE that since the war on Gaza began, Assad had distanced himself from the Axis of Resistance, “throwing himself into the arms of the Russians”, and suspicions that Syrian agents had helped Israel kill Hezbollah leaders had “cast a shadow over the decision”.

“Assad is arrogant and disconnected from reality. He has not made any concessions to his people over the past years and has not sought to resolve the crisis,” an armed faction source told MEE from Syria.

“Instead, he rebelled against the Iranians and threw himself into the arms of the Russians. He deserves an ear pinch.”

However, several factions, most notably Kataeb Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, already have fighters on the ground in Syria, some of whom were involved in the evacuation of hundreds of Shia families from the Nubl and Zahraa towns near Aleppo before HTS fighters overran the area last week.

Other Iraqi factions present in Syria before the decision to avoid fighting have repositioned themselves in eastern areas to be the “first line of defence” before the Iraqi border. 

A group of Badr Organisation fighters has meanwhile arrived in the Sayyida Zeinab area, an important Shia religious site south of Damascus, to deliver relief supplies and money to displaced families.

“Our position has not changed. We support Syria… but we do not see any interest in participating in these battles at the moment,” the commander in Syria said.

“No fighters will be sent from Iraq to Syria now. This is certain, but this decision is valid until further notice.”