BANGKOK – It was an undignified breach of diplomatic protocol and personal confidence between world leaders that arguably has no clear precedent – at least in terms of its power to embarrass, and potentially unseat, a sitting government.
The damaging leak of her 17-minute phone conversation with Cambodian Senate president Hun Sen has left Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra clinging to a crumbling ruling coalition, her position written off as untenable by most political analysts.
Mr Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former strongman leader, in recording the conversation and then disseminating the audio clip, likely had domestic political calculations at the front of his mind, analysts say.
These include bolstering the position of his son and current Prime Minister Hun Manet and, amid rising nationalist sentiment, demonstrating that his country remained uncowed in its renewed military spat along the border it shares with its larger neighbour.
But in tipping Ms Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai Party-led government into turmoil, unwittingly or otherwise, Mr Hun Sen’s actions are likely to invite a more assertive posture from Thailand following the brief border skirmish on May 28 that saw one Cambodian soldier killed.
“The Pheu Thai government, if it does remain in power, is now boxed in when it comes to Cambodia: It can no longer afford to be seen as weak and deferential to Hun Sen and Hun Manet,” said Mr Ken Lohatepanont, a political analyst and doctoral candidate at the University of Michigan.
“I would expect that the military will now have greater latitude to pursue its desired course of action in the future,” he added.
Dr Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University, said it was now tantamount to the Thai army being given “a blank cheque” to manage the border dispute how it saw fit, after Ms Paetongtarn, the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, had previously been seen by critics as being too soft on the issue.
“Thailand is now at risk of escalating the border dispute because of Paetongtarn’s mistake,” he said.
On June 20, Ms Paetongtarn travelled to an army base near the Cambodian border in a show of support for Thai troops, accompanied by the region’s army commander, Lieutenant-General Boonsin Padklang, whom she had disparaged in the leaked phone call with Mr Hun Sen.
Her trip came as conservative pro-monarchist groups, including supporters of the “yellow shirt” movement that protested against Mr Thaksin when he was in office, said they planned to intensify demonstrations demanding Ms Paetongtarn’s resignation.
It was also made as the conservative United Thai Nation Party was reported by local media on June 20 as being poised to quit the government – which would tip the ruling coalition into a parliamentary minority – unless Ms Paetongtarn stepped down, after just 10 months as prime minister.
The 38-year-old political novice assumed power in August 2024 at the head of an uneasy post-election coalition between her Pheu Thai Party and a clutch of pro-military parties that were part of the conservative establishment, whose distrust and rivalry with Mr Thaksin’s political movement had dominated Thailand’s political landscape for much of the past two decades.
It remains unclear how an initial excerpt of the leaked June 15 call first surfaced online and then was swiftly picked up by Cambodian and Thai media outlets.
Mr Hun Sen denied leaking the audio, but was quick to confirm its veracity. He said in a social media post that the call with Ms Paetongtarn had been recorded “to avoid any misunderstandings” and that he had shared the audio clip with about 80 Cambodian officials. He subsequently posted the full recording to his official Facebook page on June 18.
In the call, Ms Paetongtarn is heard pleading with the former Cambodian leader to help resolve border tensions between the two South-east Asian nations that she said were proving damaging to her government.
Addressing Mr Hun Sen as “uncle”, Ms Paetongtarn appeared to blame the Thai army for inflaming tensions and referred to it as “the opposite side”. She urged Mr Hun Sen to ignore comments from Lt-Gen Boonsin, who she said merely wanted to “appear cool”.
Ms Paetongtarn initially said her words were merely part of a “negotiation tactic”, but on June 19 issued a public apology for her remarks and slammed Mr Hun Sen for recording the call without her knowledge and leaking it.
Ms Susannah Patton, director of the South-east Asia Programme at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank, said: “In diplomatic protocol terms, leaking a phone call like this is obviously a breach of the privacy that you would expect between leaders. That being said, Paetongtarn was definitely naive not to foresee that it could be revealed in some way.
“The deferential form of address to Hun Sen, the appearance of selling out her own army commander, and repeated calls on Cambodia to de-escalate, which made her look weak – it’s very damaging,” Ms Patton added.
Mr Hun Sen’s actions are likely to be especially galling to the Shinawatra clan, given the long and close association between the two political families. Mr Hun Sen was the first foreign leader to visit Mr Thaksin in February 2024, following the latter’s return to Bangkok after a 15-year self-imposed exile.
“Hun Sen is answerable to Cambodian public pressure. He needed to take the Thai army to task, and in doing so, he has spun this gambit with Paetongtarn,” said Dr Thitinan.
“He’s willing to burn that relationship (with the Shinawatras) to get what he wants for domestic consumption,” he added.
As the army commander in charge of Thailand’s border response with Cambodia, Lt-Gen Boonsin has cultivated a high profile with his bellicose remarks towards opposing troops.
In an interview with local news outlet The Standard published prior to his meeting with Ms Paetongtarn on June 20, he urged the Prime Minister to be “mindful” and to support the national interest in dealing with the border dispute.
“Any reconciliation is likely to only occur at the surface level,” Mr Lohatepanont said of the pair’s meeting.
“The call’s contents revealed very clearly that Pheu Thai does not trust the military, but having it revealed so publicly ironically ensures that they will now have to be deferential to the military,” he said.
- Philip Wen is regional correspondent at The Straits Times, covering South-east Asia from his base in Bangkok.
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