This seventh consecutive day of conflict has plunged the region into a crisis reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, but with a far greater risk of international spillover. Reports now suggest that US President Donald Trump, in his campaign to regain geopolitical influence, is planning to join the Israeli side in its attacks, intensifying fears of a broader confrontation.
Outside the White House, Trump kept reporters guessing about US involvement in Israel’s offensive, saying, “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”
Later, he claimed Iranian officials had expressed interest in talks in Washington but dismissed the overture, adding, “It’s a little late.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that his country “will continue to attack Iran’s nuclear programme sites”, rejecting all calls for restraint. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for his part, has warned of “irreparable damages” should the US formally join the conflict.
As countries including India, Australia and New Zealand race to evacuate diplomats and citizens, Human Rights Activists, a Washington-based group, has reported that Iran has already suffered at least 639 deaths and over 1,329 injuries, making this the most serious conventional assault on its soil in nearly four decades.
Demographics, manpower and military footprint
In terms of sheer scale, Iran outmatches Israel on paper, by geography, manpower, and demographic weight. With a population of 88.3 million, according to the Global Firepower Index 2025, Iran commands a recruitment pool nearly nine times larger than Israel’s 9.4 million. The country also spans 1.6 million square kilometres, roughly 75 times Israel’s territory, giving Iran significant logistical depth in a prolonged war scenario.As per the index, Iran has an estimated 610,000 active personnel and 350,000 reserves, spread across its traditional armed forces and the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). A 2024 New York Times report, citing the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted: “The Iranian armed forces are among the largest in the Middle East, with at least 580,000 active-duty personnel and about 200,000 trained reserve personnel divided among the traditional army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”
Israel, by comparison, maintains 170,000 active troops, but a substantial 465,000-strong reserve force, regularly drilled and integrated into military readiness plans. An additional 35,000 paramilitary personnel bolster its security apparatus.
However, Israel’s numerical disadvantage is often offset by its strategic doctrine of qualitative military edge, focusing on elite training, special operations, cyberwarfare and technological superiority.
The money behind the militaries
In terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), a measure of domestic spending and economic resilience, Iran ranks 22nd globally with a 1.44 trillion dollar economy, while Israel ranks 51st at 471 billion dollars, according to the Global Firepower Index 2025. This makes Iran economically better positioned to sustain long-term mass mobilisation.
Paradoxically, Israel spends twice as much on defence. With a 30 billion dollar annual military budget, double of Iran’s 15 billion dollars, Israel punches far above its economic weight.
Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution, in her commentary “The Path Forward on Iran and Its Proxy Forces,” put it bluntly: “These proxies have proven integral to Tehran’s security, longevity and influence… providing strategic depth and access while insulating Iran’s leadership from the full risk of their actions.”
This indirect strategy also explains why Iran has avoided direct war with the US or Israel for decades. It could retaliate unconventionally, across multiple fronts.
What triggered the latest war?
According to CNN, Israeli intelligence believes Iran is months away from acquiring nuclear capability. Netanyahu feared a possible diplomatic breakthrough between Tehran and Trump, and struck first, trying to dismantle the programme before a new US-Iran deal restricted Israel’s options.
According to the Associated Press, recent Israeli and US operations have “severely disabled” parts of Iran’s proxy and covert military structures. Dozens of Iranian commanders, including IRGC chief Hossein Salami and General Mohammad Bagheri, were reportedly killed in strikes this week.
Despite setbacks, Tehran’s asymmetric tools – drones, missiles and proxy networks – remain capable of prolonging the war and widening its frontlines.
A war with no easy winner
Israel’s technological sophistication, air dominance and nuclear edge make it one of the most formidable militaries per capita in the world. But Iran’s demographic weight, missile arsenal and regional alliances render it a dangerous opponent.
As Afshon Ostovar explained to the New York Times: “There is a reason Iran has not been struck. It’s not that Iran’s adversaries fear Iran. It’s that they realise any war against Iran is a very serious war.”
And so, as missiles fly and diplomacy dies, the Middle East once again stands on the edge, its future hanging in the balance between firepower and fallout.
