By Padraic Halpin and Conor Humphries
DUBLIN (Reuters) -Ireland’s two large centre-right parties looked on course to be returned to power after an election on Friday, but they will likely need at least one smaller partner to secure a majority, raising questions about the stability of the next government.
That could leave the parties facing prolonged negotiations or an unstable coalition ahead of the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose pledge to slash corporate tax and impose tariffs poses a threat to the Irish economy.
Governing parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were on 20.5% and 21.9% of first-preference votes respectively, according to a tally by Virgin Media News with left-wing Sinn Fein on 19.1%.
With the two centre-right parties ruling out a deal with Sinn Fein, the main question was how close to the 88 seats needed for a majority the pair can get – and whether they would need one or two more coalition parties to get over the line.
“Clearly there is a route there to government,” Fianna Fail’s leader and deputy prime minister, Micheal Martin, told state broadcaster RTE when asked about a deal with Fine Gael and another party. “But a lot will depend … on how many seats the respective parties get.”
He said it was “far too early” to discuss possible coalition partners or whether he might be the next prime minister.
Fianna Fail could get as many as 48 seats and Fine Gael could take 39, leaving them on the cusp of 88 seats, former Trinity College Dublin political science professor Michael Gallagher told RTE, citing vote tallies.
The most obvious candidates for a coalition partner would be centre-left parties Labour and the Social Democrats, who Gallagher said could take eight seats each.
But if those numbers are lower when votes are counted under Ireland’s complex system of proportional representation, four parties could be needed to form a government, making it much more fragile. A clear outline of final seat numbers was not expected to emerge until Sunday.
The current junior coalition party, the Greens, were in danger of losing all 12 of their seats, party leader Roderic O’Gorman said.
GIVEAWAY BUDGET
Prime minister Simon Harris called the election on the heels of a 10.5 billion euro ($11 billion) giveaway budget that began to put money into voters’ pockets during the campaign, largesse made possible by billions of euros of foreign multinational corporate tax revenues.
However, a campaign full of missteps for his Fine Gael party, culminating last weekend in a viral clip of Harris walking away from an exasperated care worker, cost them their pre-election lead.
The government parties also faced widespread frustration during the campaign at their inability to turn the healthiest public finances in Europe into better public services.
Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army, appeared on course to lead the next government a year ago but suffered a slide in support from 30%-35%, in part due to anger among its working-class base at relatively liberal immigration policies.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, former rivals that have between them led every government since the foundation of the state almost a century ago, agreed to share the role of prime minister during the last government, switching roles halfway through the five-year term. A similar arrangement appears likely this time.
